然后今天暴跌，大家也不用找我们自身的原因，这个原因是全球性的，那就是全球流动性杀，体现为股票跌、黄金跌、币跌，独独美元指数，又上100 了。 这种全球性的流动性杀带来的下跌，看似凶险，但是是有解的，最怕的全球性下跌是全球衰退带来的，这种就是漫长的阴跌，才真正叫可怕。 那么当前这波全球流动性杀起源于哪，又将在什么时候结束？ 01全球流动性的由来 这波全球流动性杀始于美国政府的停摆，之前在《全球暴跌，A股独涨，这是什么逻辑？》那篇文章里详细讲了美国政府停摆对流动性的杀伤。美国政府 停摆导致财政部大量应该花向市场的钱没有流动出去，美国的短融市场立即感受到了压力，因而短融市场利率飙升。 随后给流动性一击的是10月30日凌晨美联储的议息会议。惯例美联储发布决议内容后，就是鲍威尔的新闻发布会。但在我们这边时间凌晨2点35左右时， 鲍威尔原来在读稿子，这时却抬了头补充道："9月和10月的降息是出于风险管理，但12月是否继续降息，现在完全不确定，远未成定局。" 当然，那个时候市场还不是那么相信12月会不降息，降息的概率依然非常高，市场基本是认定还是会降息的。 然后是11月4日晚上美国参议院拨款方案没有通过的消息时间。在这之前 ...

Company - Hillhouse Capital (高瓴HHLR) disclosed a significant increase in its U.S. stock holdings, with a total market value surge of $7 billion, indicating a continued focus on increasing investments in Chinese assets [2] - Google plans to invest $40 billion in building data centers in Texas, reflecting its commitment to expanding its infrastructure and operations in the region [2] - Oracle bonds faced sell-off due to heightened investor concerns over artificial intelligence investments, indicating potential volatility in the tech sector [3] - Walmart CEO Doug McMillon will retire in January after 12 years at the helm, marking a significant leadership change for the company [3] Industry - The European Union has imposed a €3 billion fine on Google, raising concerns about the potential dismantling of its advertising empire [3] - The tech sector is experiencing scrutiny over profit quality, with notable short-seller Michael Burry questioning accounting practices among major U.S. tech firms [3] - The geopolitical risks are driving up oil prices, while gold and copper prices are experiencing declines, indicating a complex landscape for commodity markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in spot gold prices, with a notable drop from $4245 to around $4150, indicate a strong tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments in the market [1] Market Analysis - Recent negative news includes three Federal Reserve officials expressing caution regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, which has reduced the market's expectation of a rate cut in October from 60% to 51%, contributing to gold's weakness [2] - The primary reason for the recent decline in gold prices is attributed to excessive buying pressure, as gold had risen significantly from the $4000 mark amidst similar comments from Federal Reserve officials about exploring rate cuts [2] - The drop in gold prices coincided with a significant decline in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, suggesting that these markets are influencing gold's performance negatively [2][4] Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The underlying logic for the current market conditions is the tightening liquidity in the U.S., prompting the Federal Reserve to consider expanding its balance sheet to inject liquidity [4] - Historically, when U.S. stocks decline, gold tends to rise, indicating that the current downward trend in gold may be a short-term effect [4] Technical Analysis - Spot gold reached a high of $4210 before retreating to a low of $4160, which is identified as a critical support level [5] - If gold can maintain above the $4160 support level, it may signal the end of the recent downward trend, with strong buying interest noted in the $4150-$4160 range [5] - The overall strategy suggests a bullish outlook for gold, with key support levels at $4150 and $4100, and potential targets at $4200 and $4160 [7]

知道与做到之间有一条巨大的鸿沟，经历得多不一定成长，只有不断自我反思才能使人进步。 苏格拉底最有名的一句话：未经审视的人生不值得过。 我越发理解，那些一眼看透事物本质直抓核心的人都有一个共性：哲学思维。不轻易被表象所迷惑，反复推理寻找最终答案。 这种哲学思维，不是高悬云端的空想，而是扎根现实的清醒。在纷繁复杂的选择中，不被情绪裹挟，不被外在牵引，而是习惯性追问 "本质是什么""关键 在哪里"。 不会困在 "谁对谁错" 的表层争论里，而是穿透表象，看到背后的逻辑与需求，从而做出最稳妥的决策。遵循的是"规则"，这个"规则"不是以自我利益为 出发点，而是"普世"。 就拿熟知的投资而言，透过表面的对错盈亏，深挖为什么价格朝某个方向波动，依据是什么，可靠性如何验证，方向一旦反了怎么应对，不仅有入场机 制，同时也有清晰的退出机会，赚了赚多少走，亏了亏多少平。 我遇到的多数人关注如何赚钱，很少有人研究怎么不亏，亏了怎么办。遇到极端情况如何应对。这些值得你我持续思考！ 周四，黄金冲击4240美元高位后中途倒车，刚好打到顶底转换4150美元的支撑点，一次完美的回踩确认，反弹现在没有结束，只有二次下调破了4150美元 才能宣布此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is approaching a new phase of "liquidity replenishment" after two years of balance sheet reduction, with potential plans to expand its securities holdings soon [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Federal Reserve plans to assess whether the reserve levels have transitioned from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" before gradually resuming net asset purchases [4]. - Any future bond purchases will be part of a pre-planned liquidity management action under the "adequate reserves framework," not a new stimulus policy [4][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Recent fluctuations in the repo market indicate a transition of liquidity from "ample" to "adequate," with some repo rates exceeding the Fed's target range [5]. - The usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has surged, reaching the highest frequency since its establishment in 2021, with borrowing exceeding $10 billion on two occasions last week [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Market analysts anticipate that the Federal Reserve may officially initiate "reserve management" bond purchases in the first quarter of 2026 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [7]. - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring indicators such as the federal funds market and repo market to evaluate changes in reserve demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin expanding its balance sheet in the first quarter [1] Group 1 - The expectation of balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve indicates a shift in monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares show resilience compared to the global market, supported by three key positive factors despite external market volatility [1][2][4]. Group 1: Positive Factors Supporting A-shares - The China Warehousing Index for October 2025 is reported at 50.6%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a steady recovery in economic activity [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China announced a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 5, aimed at maintaining liquidity in the market, alleviating concerns over external liquidity tightening [2][4]. - Active market segments, particularly in Hainan and Fujian, have shown significant gains, with multiple stocks reaching their daily limit up, reflecting strong investor interest [3][4]. Group 2: External Market Concerns - The global market adjustment is primarily attributed to sudden liquidity tightening in the U.S., driven by the ongoing government shutdown, which raises questions about the extent of its impact on A-shares [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the U.S. liquidity crisis narrative may be overstated, as the current reserve levels are adequate, and the Federal Reserve is not under immediate pressure to expand its balance sheet [5][4]. - Concerns over high stock valuations and uncertainty regarding potential interest rate cuts in December are contributing to volatility in the U.S. market, which may indirectly affect A-shares [5][4].

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing significant asset declines, while gold prices are rising due to ongoing geopolitical instability [1] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming October meeting is crucial, as key economic data is unavailable due to the government shutdown, making Powell's statements particularly important [3][5] - Powell's strategy includes cautious interest rate cuts and an end to balance sheet reduction to prevent liquidity issues [5][7] Group 2 - The Fed's simultaneous interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction create a challenging liquidity environment, reminiscent of the 2019 liquidity crisis [7][9] - Trump's recent trade actions, including increased tariffs on Chinese goods, add to market volatility, despite the potential legal challenges to these tariffs [9][11] - The U.S. economy is under pressure from high inflation and employment issues, making aggressive trade actions risky [11][13] Group 3 - Investors should accept market volatility as a norm and consider defensive sectors like consumer and healthcare, which are less affected by economic fluctuations [15] - Structural opportunities may arise post-balance sheet reduction, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, but caution is advised regarding export-related companies due to ongoing trade conflicts [17]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut, which could positively impact global markets including stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate [1] - This rate cut is different from previous ones due to complex economic data and political dynamics, with the Trump administration pushing for a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [1][3] - Current economic indicators, such as weak non-farm payroll data and inflation concerns, suggest that a 25 basis point cut is a rational decision, but the government is seeking a more substantial reduction [3][5] Group 2 - The decision on the rate cut hinges on the voting power within the Federal Reserve, with three out of seven members already supporting a cut, and the focus is on securing one more vote [5] - The market sentiment is cautious about a 50 basis point cut, as it may signal economic recession, while a 25 basis point cut is viewed as a liquidity boost [5][7] - Historical precedents show that improper rate cuts can lead to inflation and economic downturns, making inflation data a critical factor in the Fed's decision-making process [7][9] Group 3 - If the U.S. GDP experiences consecutive months of negative growth, the Fed may opt for a more aggressive approach to stabilize the economy, which could include both rate cuts and balance sheet expansion [9] - The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is seen as a necessary measure to provide liquidity directly to the market, especially in times of economic or financial distress [9][11] - The current political pressure on the Fed to cut rates and expand its balance sheet raises questions about how the market will respond to high liquidity and potential inflation risks [11]

Group 1 - The core issue in the U.S. Treasury market is a persistent imbalance between supply and demand, exacerbated by increasing fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures [5][12][16] - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield reaching 4.5%, is attributed to unexpected tariff increases announced by President Trump, which heightened inflation expectations [1][2][12] - Foreign investors, particularly from Japan and China, have begun to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, raising concerns about potential large-scale sell-offs that could destabilize the market [3][11] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury market has experienced three significant risk events from 2022 to 2024, prompting government intervention to stabilize the situation [6][7] - The recent bipartisan agreement in Congress to raise the debt ceiling and cut government spending is likely to exacerbate the existing issues in the Treasury market rather than alleviate them [10][11][12] - The potential solutions to the Treasury market's challenges include implicit debt defaults or the Federal Reserve expanding its balance sheet to purchase Treasuries, both of which carry significant risks of inflation and market distortion [13][15][16]