说句实在话，现在这市场有点"魔幻"。 VIX指数低得快看不见了，黄金却疯涨到4500美元以上。 一边是"岁月静好"，一边是"末日警报"，到底谁在说真话？ 今天周叔就带大家拆解这场看似矛盾、实则暗流汹涌的金融大戏。 这些哪一点不危险？ 问题就出在这儿——VIX已经不再是"恐慌指数"，而是"控盘指数"。 大量机构通过做空波动率（比如卖出跨式期权）和高频交易超短期期权（甚至一天到期），人为压制市 场波动。 做市商在微幅震荡中"低买高卖"，形成一个自动稳定器，把任何风吹草动都熨平了。 VIX失灵？不是没风险，是风险被"压"住了 咱们先看数据：截至2026年1月初，VIX指数一度跌至13.6，创下近五年新低。 按常理，这说明美股风平浪静，投资者信心爆棚。 但现实呢？AI股估值高到离谱，美债规模突破38万亿美元，财政赤字像无底洞，美联储悄悄重启扩 表…… 黄金暴涨，是在替VIX"说实话" 那黄金为啥能一路冲上4533美元？因为它根本不信VIX那一套。 黄金看的是真实世界的"资产负债表"。 这不是市场没风险，而是风险被机械性地"藏"起来了。 周叔提醒一句：这种平静极其脆弱。 回看2024年12月，VIX同样处于历史低位，结 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metal Industry**: The metal industry is experiencing enhanced allocation attributes due to global mining supply growth being lower than metal output growth, alongside low inventory levels of non-ferrous metals. Demand is supported by green energy infrastructure, computing power infrastructure, and fiscal stimulus, leading to an upward resonance of industrial and liquidity cycles, optimizing industry prosperity [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: In 2025, there is a significant increase in capital market enthusiasm for cyclical industries, particularly in the second half of the year, driven by rising cyclical commodity prices and anti-involution logic. The metal industry is expected to strengthen its allocation attributes under a weak supply cycle [2]. - **Gold Market**: The global gold PEI index rose by 24% in the first ten months of 2025, indicating a scarcity of effective gold projects and limited new gold supply, with production costs rising, confirming the obstructed supply situation [3][8]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The global financial market faces geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties, leading to high volatility. This environment increases the premium on safe-haven assets like gold, with a 91% probability of positive returns during high volatility periods [4]. - **Mining Exploration Investment**: Global mining exploration investment is declining, with a projected 3% decrease in 2025. The share of greenfield exploration projects is at a historical low, reflecting reduced capital risk appetite [5]. - **Investment in Battery Metals**: Investment in battery metals surged by 42% from 2023 to 2024 but is expected to decline in 2025 due to changing price expectations. Traditional precious metals like gold and copper are regaining attention [6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - **China's Non-Ferrous Metal Production**: China's non-ferrous metal production growth has slowed to 2.6% by October 2025, leading to continued low copper smelting fees and exacerbating supply tightness due to reduced upstream capital expenditures [7]. - **Global Copper Industry**: The global copper mining industry faces challenges, with a 2% investment growth in 2024, but a 9% decline in greenfield projects. The discovery of new copper mines has significantly decreased since 2010 [10]. - **Cost Trends**: The average cash production cost for copper is projected to rise by 24% from 2021-2024 levels by 2030-2035, indicating structural and cyclical cost increases [11][12]. Inventory and Market Conditions - **Global Inventory Levels**: As of November 2025, global non-ferrous metal inventories are at a 35-year low, with a 13% year-on-year decline. This reflects supply chain vulnerabilities and limited smelting capacity utilization [13]. - **China's Demand Recovery**: In 2025, China's market demand shows signs of recovery, driven by government subsidies and the expansion of the new energy industry chain [14]. Future Outlook - **Liquidity Policies**: The shift from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy globally is expected to boost commodity price elasticity and enhance industry prosperity and valuation levels [15][16]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, leading companies with capital expenditures and R&D driving long-term growth, and new material fields benefiting from increased demand and domestic substitution [36]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the metal industry and related sectors, highlighting the interplay of supply, demand, and macroeconomic factors influencing investment strategies.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion and the end of the QE era, highlighting the potential shifts in liquidity and market dynamics [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve has significantly expanded its balance sheet, which has led to increased liquidity in the financial system [2] - The article emphasizes that the era of Quantitative Easing (QE) is coming to an end, suggesting a transition towards tighter monetary policy [2] Group 2: Market Implications - The end of QE may lead to increased volatility in financial markets as liquidity conditions change [2] - Investors may need to adjust their strategies in response to the shifting landscape of monetary policy and its impact on asset prices [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The article suggests that the changes in the Federal Reserve's approach could have broader implications for economic growth and inflation [2] - It highlights the importance of monitoring economic indicators as the Fed navigates this transition [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights that COMEX silver has reached a historical high, with a weekly increase of 4.7% to $78.8 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 2.5% to $4546.2 per ounce [2][30][35] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4%, with most developed and emerging market indices also showing gains during the Christmas trading period [2][3][11] - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, and the net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds fell, with a rolling net issuance of -$55.26 billion [2][43] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 is projected to be $1.77 trillion, down from $1.95 trillion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $7.79 trillion and total revenues at $4.8 trillion [48][80] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was reported at 4.3% (annualized), exceeding market expectations of 3.3%, driven primarily by strong consumer spending [61][80] - The article notes that the unemployment claims data indicates stability in the U.S. economy, with initial claims at 214,000 and continuing claims at 1.923 million, both figures reflecting market expectations [64][65] Group 3 - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's recent actions, indicating that a rate cut in January remains likely, despite strong GDP data, as the market's expectations for rate changes have not significantly shifted [57][61] - The article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's recent expansion of its balance sheet through Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) marks a new phase in liquidity management, distinct from traditional quantitative easing (QE) [76][78] - The article concludes that the current economic conditions do not warrant a return to QE, as the Fed is likely to maintain a focus on interest rate adjustments rather than balance sheet expansion [79]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's initiation of the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting signals the end of the QE era rather than a restart, despite both leading to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. The RMP and QE have fundamental differences in policy and market implications [2][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Expansion - The Federal Reserve announced a restart of balance sheet expansion at the December FOMC meeting, with the pace slightly exceeding expectations, aligning with liquidity management needs. By the end of 2025, reserves may have fallen to ample levels, necessitating early expansion to accommodate economic growth and seasonal demand fluctuations [3][8][14]. - The RMP is a new phase of "normalization" in balance sheet expansion, with two methods of providing reserves: RMP and reinvestment of agency securities. The RMP will start at a scale of $40 billion per month, expected to remain high until April 2026, then slow to an average of $20-25 billion per month [3][18][69]. Group 2: Nature of RMP - The RMP is a technical operation aimed at assisting the effective implementation of monetary policy without altering the Fed's policy stance. It primarily refers to interest rate policy, allowing market rates to fluctuate narrowly around the policy rate without frequent open market operations [4][41][69]. - RMP and QE both lead to balance sheet expansion but differ fundamentally. While they have similar quantitative impacts on the Fed's and commercial banks' balance sheets, they differ qualitatively. RMP is a conventional liquidity management operation, while QE is a broad "yield curve management" tool [4][65][69]. Group 3: Conclusion on QE - QE is not likely to restart until interest rates are lowered to near zero, as this is the inherent order of monetary easing. Not all balance sheet expansions are classified as QE; the precondition for QE is that monetary policy faces a zero lower bound constraint [5][71]. - Historical instances of QE-style expansions by the Fed occurred only after interest rates were lowered to zero or near zero, including during the Great Depression, post-World War II, after the 2008 financial crisis, and following the 2020 pandemic [5][47][71].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant price increases due to the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts and the resumption of balance sheet expansion, alongside ongoing supply tightness in the copper market [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On Friday night, the Shanghai copper market saw a surge, with the main contract rising over 3% [2] - The U.S. continues to exert a siphoning effect on the copper market, leading to low inventory levels in non-U.S. regions despite some accumulation [2] Group 2: Demand and Risks - High copper prices are suppressing domestic demand, while increasing anxiety in the precious metals market raises concerns about potential risks at elevated price levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the Federal Reserve's initiation of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting has sparked optimism for a "QE-style" liquidity easing, but in reality, it marks the end of the QE era rather than a restart [1] Group 1: RMP and Normalization of Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve has entered a new phase of "normalization" in balance sheet expansion with the announcement of RMP, which slightly exceeded expectations but aligns with liquidity management needs [2] - By the end of 2025, reserves are expected to have declined to an ample level, necessitating early balance sheet expansion to accommodate economic growth and seasonal demand fluctuations [2] - RMP will be implemented starting December 12, with an initial scale of $40 billion, expected to remain high until April 2026, after which it may slow to an average of $20-25 billion per month [2] Group 2: Nature of RMP vs. QE - RMP is fundamentally a technical operation aimed at assisting effective monetary policy implementation without altering the Fed's policy stance, primarily focusing on interest rate policy [3] - While both RMP and QE lead to balance sheet expansion, they differ fundamentally; RMP is a routine liquidity management operation, whereas QE is a broader "yield curve management" strategy [3] - RMP is not a new tool, having been implemented after the end of balance sheet reduction in October 2019, and its pace of normalization may align with nominal GDP growth rates [3] Group 3: Conclusion on QE - The report concludes that the Fed is unlikely to restart QE before returning to a zero or near-zero interest rate environment, as the internal order of monetary easing dictates that rate cuts are more effective in stimulating demand prior to hitting the zero lower bound [4] - Historical instances of QE-like balance sheet expansions occurred only after reaching zero interest rates, indicating that the Fed may need to wait for the next crisis to consider restarting QE [4] - In conventional monetary policy ranges, interest rates serve as the primary indicator of policy stance, making it unnecessary to focus excessively on the Fed's balance sheet operations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's initiation of the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting signals the end of the QE era rather than a restart, despite both leading to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. RMP and QE have fundamental differences in policy and market implications [2][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Expansion - The Federal Reserve announced a restart of balance sheet expansion at the December FOMC meeting, with the pace slightly exceeding expectations, aligning with liquidity management needs. By the end of 2025, reserves may have fallen to ample levels, necessitating early expansion to accommodate economic growth and seasonal demand fluctuations [3][8][14]. - The RMP, starting on December 12, 2025, has an initial scale of $40 billion, expected to remain high until April 2026, after which it may slow to an average of $20-25 billion per month [3][18][69]. Group 2: Nature of RMP - RMP is a technical operation aimed at assisting the effective implementation of monetary policy without altering the Fed's policy stance. It primarily refers to interest rate policy, allowing market rates to fluctuate narrowly around the policy rate without frequent open market operations [4][41][69]. - RMP and QE both lead to balance sheet expansion but differ fundamentally in quality. RMP is a conventional liquidity management operation, while QE is a broad "yield curve management" tool. RMP is market-neutral, whereas QE is market-non-neutral [4][65][69]. Group 3: Conclusion on QE - QE is only likely to be considered after interest rates are lowered to near zero, as this is the inherent order of monetary easing. Not all balance sheet expansions are classified as QE, which requires a zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy. Prior to reaching this limit, rate cuts are a more effective means of stimulating aggregate demand [5][71][60]. - Historical instances of QE-style expansions by the Fed occurred only after interest rates were lowered to zero or near-zero levels, indicating that a return to QE may require a future crisis [5][47][71].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve initiated the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the end of the QE era rather than a restart[1] - The RMP is set at a scale of $40 billion for the first month, expected to remain high until April 2026, then potentially slow to an average of $20-25 billion per month[2] - RMP is a technical operation aimed at managing liquidity without altering the Fed's policy stance, primarily focusing on interest rate policy[3] Group 2: Differences Between RMP and QE - RMP and QE both lead to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet but differ fundamentally in their nature; RMP is for liquidity management while QE is for yield curve management[4] - RMP is market-neutral, whereas QE is market-non-neutral, affecting asset prices differently[5] - The Fed is unlikely to restart QE until interest rates approach zero, as lowering rates is a more effective demand stimulus before reaching that threshold[6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - As of December 24, 2025, the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, with net issuance of U.S. debt declining[7] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 is projected at $1.77 trillion, lower than the $1.95 trillion from the previous year[8] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was 4.3% (annualized), exceeding market expectations of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending[9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability has decreased, leading to a significant drop in precious metals prices, particularly silver, while the long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to various supportive factors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Precious metals experienced a divergence in performance, with a notable drop influenced by better-than-expected initial jobless claims data, which fell to 214,000, below expectations and previous values [1][3]. - Silver prices have recently seen volatility, touching $72 before retreating, driven by macro liquidity easing and rising interest in platinum and palladium [2]. - The recent U.S. employment data exceeded expectations, putting short-term pressure on gold and silver prices, with initial jobless claims at 214,000, lower than the anticipated 224,000 [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q3 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.3%, influenced by healthcare prices [3]. - The GDP price index for Q3 was reported at 3.8%, above the expected 2.7%, indicating resilience in price levels despite economic uncertainties [3]. - The PCE price index year-on-year for Q3 was 2.7%, higher than the previous 2.4%, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential short-term consolidation in gold prices due to profit-taking and lack of new market catalysts, the overall upward trend remains solid, with expectations for continued strength into 2026 [4]. - UBS analysts suggest that while the recent surge in precious metals is notable, the lack of clear driving factors makes short-term predictions challenging, advocating for a cautious approach [4]. - The combination of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, central bank gold purchases, ETF inflows, and a weaker dollar is expected to support precious metals prices in the medium to long term [1][3].