Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has exceeded revenue and profit growth expectations, with a total of 53,000 stores globally as of June 30, 2025 [8] - The company has strengthened its brand presence in mainland China, with a significant increase in store openings, particularly in lower-tier cities [8] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upwards for 2025-2027, reflecting strong operational performance and store expansion [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 20,302 million, with a year-on-year growth of 49.55% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is projected at 3,137 million, with a year-on-year growth of 57.13% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 8.26, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50.86 [1] Store Expansion and Sales Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the company has 53,000 stores, with a year-on-year increase of 23% [8] - The average sales per store have significantly improved, with product and equipment sales revenue reaching 145.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.3% [8] - The company has opened 7,721 new franchise stores in the first half of 2025, exceeding its guidance [8] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 is 31.6%, with a net profit margin of 18.3%, reflecting a stable increase due to operational scale effects [8] - The company’s net profit for the first half of 2025 is 26.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.9% [8] Future Earnings Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 58.5 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27 for 2025, 24 for 2026, and 22 for 2027 [8]

Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage on Mixue Group (02097) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 470.00, based on a P/E valuation method corresponding to a 2025 P/E of 33x. The company is the largest fresh beverage company in China and the fourth largest globally, with over 46,000 stores worldwide by the end of 2024 [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The fresh beverage market in China and Southeast Asia is large and growing rapidly, with a market size of CNY 658.2 billion in 2023 and a CAGR of 21% over the past five years. The sub-10 CNY price segment is stable and concentrated, driven by consumer demand for affordable and convenient options [2]. - Mixue has established a "flywheel effect" by focusing on high-quality, affordable products, which has led to brand recognition and an extensive store network, enhancing its competitive advantage [2]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The company offers high-quality, affordable products (ASP of CNY 6-7), supported by a broad store network and the popular "Xue Wang" IP, contributing to its national brand influence [3]. - Mixue's integrated supply chain, covering R&D, procurement, production, and logistics, ensures stable supply while significantly reducing costs. The procurement costs for key raw materials are over 10% lower than competitors, and the company has a production capacity of approximately 1.65 million tons [3]. - The company's strict franchise management system and shared values with franchisees support high-quality store expansion, with an average franchisee operating about 2.2 stores, and a low closure rate of 3-4% since 2021 [3]. Group 3: Growth Potential - The company is expected to have domestic store expansion potential of at least 65,000 to 68,000 stores, with overseas expansion potential of at least 14,000 stores, driven by the growth of the overseas fresh beverage market and its competitive advantages [4]. - CICC remains optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential overseas, supported by its pricing strategy, supply chain capabilities, and management strength [4]. Group 4: Competitive Advantage - CICC highlights the company's unique pricing strategy and strong supply chain and brand power as key factors supporting its competitive advantage. The company is expected to achieve sustained store expansion and performance growth, with potential catalysts including better-than-expected same-store sales and store openings domestically, as well as overseas adjustments [5].