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【理想汽车(LI.O)】3Q25 业绩承压,静待管理模式转型后的再次跃升 ——跟踪报告(倪昱婧/邢萍)
光大证券研究· 2025-11-29 00:04
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profitability in Q3 2025, primarily due to lower-than-expected sales and increased recall provisions, indicating ongoing challenges in the automotive market [4][5]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenue decreased by 36.2% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter to 27.36 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 5.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 16.3% [4]. - Automotive business revenue fell by 37.4% year-on-year and 10.4% quarter-on-quarter to 25.87 billion yuan, with sales volume down 39.0% year-on-year and 16.1% quarter-on-quarter to 93,000 units [5]. - Non-GAAP net loss for Q3 2025 was 360 million yuan, marking the first quarterly loss of this kind in 2023 [4]. Cost Structure - R&D expense ratio increased by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year and 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 10.9%, while SG&A expense ratio rose by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 10.1% [5]. - Non-GAAP loss per vehicle in Q3 2025 was approximately 4,000 yuan, compared to a profit of 25,000 yuan in Q3 2024 and 13,000 yuan in Q2 2025 [5]. Cash Flow and Guidance - Free cash flow saw a net outflow of 8.9 billion yuan, with total cash on hand at approximately 98.9 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025 [5]. - Management guidance for Q4 2025 delivery volume is between 100,000 and 110,000 units, but the outlook remains cautious due to policy fluctuations and intensified competition [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates overcoming bottlenecks in electric vehicle deliveries, with plans to adopt a dual-supplier model for battery supply starting in November, potentially increasing i6 production capacity to 20,000 units by early 2026 [6]. - Expected improvements in product capabilities include advancements in self-developed battery technology and autonomous driving experiences, with new models anticipated to enhance competitiveness [6]. - Organizational adjustments aim to improve operational efficiency, with a focus on streamlining product offerings and enhancing R&D capabilities [6].