行业报告 | 行业专题研究 银行 证券研究报告 农业银行的故事：资负篇 本篇报告是我们推出的第二篇农业银行深度报告，将从信贷、存款、金市、流动性与司库策略五大 维度作为切入点，为市场全面"解密"农业银行资产负债配置行为及其影响。 一、近年来农业银行资产负债配置行为的主要特点 第一，资产负债"流动性、盈利性、安全性"三性平衡中，流动性明显"让位于"盈利性，其对规 模增长诉求，明显高于其他国有大行。 第二，资产配置"强度大、质量高、久期长"。一方面，凭借县域金融优势，农业银行信贷强度有望 在国有大行中持续保持领先。另一方面，债券投资以一级市场承接和配置需求为主，AC 账户政府债 持仓比例高、久期长，导致银行账簿利率风险指标压力较大。 第三，存款管理建设仍待提升，受监管政策影响较大。主要表现为：（1）对公存款涉及手工补息体 量过大，近年来流失较多；（2）零售存款受益于县域金融业务强势，增长情况较好；（3）对同业存 款依赖度极高，活期定价水平季节性引领国有大行。 第四、资负缺口压力最大时点集中在 1-2 月份、10-11 月份。但近几年从趋势变化上看，这两个时 间段农业银行资负缺口压力有一定分化，即 1-2 月缺口压 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (stock code: 601288) [1] Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China achieved operating income of 369.94 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 139.51 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in growth rate compared to Q1 [3] - The bank's annualized ROE reached 10.16%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year, while the second quarter showed marginal improvements with revenue growth of 1.4% and net profit growth of 3.2% [3] - The bank's credit impairment losses decreased by 3.0% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a significant drop of 9.9% in Q2 [3] - The bank's strategy focuses on serving rural revitalization and the real economy, leveraging its county-level financial advantages and low-cost funding capabilities [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the bank's net interest income was 282.47 billion yuan, down 2.9% year-on-year, with a net interest margin of 1.32%, a decrease of 13 basis points year-on-year [3] - Total loans reached 26.58 trillion yuan, growing 7.3% year-to-date, with corporate loans increasing by 6.35% and retail loans by 5.4% [3] - Non-interest income was 87.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, driven by a 10.1% rise in net fee and commission income [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.28%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the end of the previous year, with a strong provision coverage ratio of 295% [3] - Retail loan non-performing ratio was 1.18%, up 15 basis points, primarily due to fluctuations in operating loans and credit card risks [3] Capital Adequacy - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio was 11.11%, indicating sufficient capital safety margins [3] - The bank's strategy includes enhancing wealth management and non-interest income growth, supported by a stable dividend payout ratio of 30% for the mid-2025 period [3] Future Projections - The report forecasts the bank's BVPS for 2025-2027 to be 8.04 yuan, 8.59 yuan, and 9.16 yuan respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 0.88X, 0.82X, and 0.77X [3][40]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任 何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 中 國 農 業 銀 行 股 份 有 限 公 司 AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA LIMITED （ 於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 之 股 份 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：1288） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條作出。 根據中華人民共和國的有關法律法規，中國農業銀行股份有限公司在上海證券交易所網 站刊登《中國農業銀行股份有限公司2025年半年度報告》。 茲載列該公告如下，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 中國農業銀行股份有限公司 劉清 公司秘書 中國北京 2025年8月29日 於本公告日期，本行的執行董事為谷澍先生、王志恒先生和林立先生；本行的非執行董事為周濟女士、李蔚先生、 劉曉鵬先生和張奇先生；本行的獨立非執行董事為梁高美懿女士、吳聯生先生、汪昌雲先生、鞠建東先生、 莊毓敏女士和張琦先生。 中国农业银行股份有限公司 （A ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任 何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 中 國 農 業 銀 行 股 份 有 限 公 司 AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA LIMITED （ 於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 之 股 份 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：1288） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條作出。 根據中華人民共和國的有關法律法規，中國農業銀行股份有限公司在上海證券交易所網 站刊登《中國農業銀行股份有限公司2025年半年度報告摘要》。 茲載列該公告如下，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 中國農業銀行股份有限公司 劉清 公司秘書 中國北京 2025年8月29日 於本公告日期，本行的執行董事為谷澍先生、王志恒先生和林立先生；本行的非執行董事為周濟女士、李蔚先生、 劉曉鵬先生和張奇先生；本行的獨立非執行董事為梁高美懿女士、吳聯生先生、汪昌雲先生、鞠建東先生、 莊毓敏女士和張琦先生。 中国农业银行股份有限公司 ...

Company Overview - The company, Agricultural Bank of China, has a history dating back to 1951 and has evolved through various stages, including being a state-owned commercial bank and a joint-stock company since 2009 [1] - It is one of China's major comprehensive financial service providers, focusing on rural revitalization and serving the real economy [1] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the total assets of the company reached RMB 46.86 trillion, with total deposits of RMB 31.90 trillion and a capital adequacy ratio of 17.45% [2][9] - The company reported a net profit of RMB 139.94 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [9][14] - The operating income for the same period was RMB 369.94 billion, up 0.8% year-on-year [14] Business Operations - The company has a vast network with 22,914 domestic branches and 13 overseas branches, ranking third globally in terms of tier-1 capital [2] - It has implemented strategies focusing on inclusive finance, green finance, and digital operations, with significant growth in loans to rural areas and agricultural sectors [10][11] Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.28%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the previous year, indicating effective risk management [9][12] - The provision coverage ratio was reported at 295%, demonstrating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [9][12] Dividend Distribution - The company has proposed a cash dividend of RMB 1.255 per share for the fiscal year 2024, totaling RMB 43.92 billion, with a total cash dividend of RMB 846.61 billion for the year [3][4] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to enhancing its financial services for agriculture and rural areas, with a focus on supporting national food security and poverty alleviation efforts [10][14] - It aims to optimize credit policies and innovate service models to better serve the real economy and promote consumption [11][14]