以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者王晗玉 张帆 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 农行何以取代"宇宙行"? 文 ｜ 王晗玉 编辑 ｜ 张帆 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID:krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ IC photo 在二级市场上持续升两年半的四大行，在7月中旬之后股价出现小幅波动。而农业银行一枝独秀，整体保持强劲势头。 至9月30日，农业银行A股年内涨幅达30.56%，同期另外三大银行涨幅则在-1%-10%之间。 若拉长周期看，工、农、建、中四家银行自2023年3月开启本轮上涨以来，A股市场的农业银行累计涨幅已超168%，而工商银行、建设银行、中国银行涨幅 则分别约99%、81%、88%。 | 时间范围 | 2025/01/02 ~ 2025/09/30 182周期 周期:日 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区间涨幅 回撤 -15.36% | | 均价 12.64 | 成交量 8.0亿 | | 30.56% 年化 44.23% | | 振幅 53.81% | 换手率 25.08% | 农业银行区间涨幅，图源：Wind 9月4日，这场" ...

日前，天风证券在一份专题研究报告中系统梳理了农业银行的核心竞争优势，认为农业银行的出色表现并非偶然，而是其长期深耕县域金融战略 的必然结果。 报告称，研究团队将农业银行的成功归因于其独特的"经营密码"——"三好公式+四大亮点"的战略组合。 报告特别强调，农业银行在当前"资产荒"背景下展现出的增长潜力和风险抵御能力，使其有望延续估值提升之路。 "农业银行将在双线逻辑下延续估值提升之路，一是红利属性对中长期资金的吸引力依然存在；二是其具备大行领先的成长预期"。 2025年以来，农业银行成为A股上市银行中的"闪亮明珠"，一度超越"宇宙行"工行银行夺得总市值冠军宝座。农业银行表现强势的背后究竟有着什 么样的逻辑？ 农业银行的战略优势首先体现在其"高瞻远瞩"的前瞻性布局上。早在上市之初，农业银行就精准判断出县域经济将在城镇化进程和政策支持下迎 来巨大发展潜力。 天风证券在报告中指出："农业银行全面实施'三农'普惠、绿色金融、数字经营三大战略，其中县域金融战略排名首位。" 这一战略定位与近年来国家对县域经济的重视程度不谋而合。从2020年《关于加快开展县城城镇化补短板强弱项工作的通知》到2025年政府工作 报告中"大力发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition among major state-owned banks in China has shifted, with Agricultural Bank of China surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in market capitalization, signaling a significant change in the competitive landscape of state-owned banks [1][2]. Market Capitalization Battle - Agricultural Bank of China reached a market value of 2.55 trillion yuan, overtaking Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which has historically been the largest [1]. - The market capitalization rivalry has seen both banks alternating in leadership, with Industrial and Commercial Bank regaining its position by September 11 [2]. - Agricultural Bank's stock price surged from 2.7 yuan in November 2022 to 7.55 yuan by September 4, 2025, marking an increase of nearly 180% [3]. - As of early 2025, the market capitalization gap between Agricultural Bank and Industrial Bank was 450 billion yuan, with Agricultural Bank's stock rising by approximately 47% year-to-date, compared to 13% for Industrial Bank [3]. Financial Performance - As of June 2025, Agricultural Bank's total assets reached 46.86 trillion yuan, trailing only Industrial Bank's 52.32 trillion yuan [4]. - Agricultural Bank was the only major state-owned bank to report a net profit growth of 2.53% in the first half of 2025, while the other three banks experienced declines [4]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for Agricultural Bank was 1.28%, with a provision coverage ratio of 295%, indicating strong asset quality compared to its peers [4][5]. County-Level Strategy - Agricultural Bank's focus on county-level financial services has become a core competitive advantage, especially in a market with weak credit demand [6]. - The bank's county-level loan balance exceeded 10 trillion yuan, accounting for 40.9% of its domestic loans, with significant growth in loans for essential agricultural products and rural development [7][8]. - The average yield on county-level loans was 3.09%, with a low deposit interest rate of 1.35%, contributing to a favorable net interest margin [8]. Investment Logic - Agricultural Bank's asset quality and extensive network of county-level branches make it an attractive option for long-term investors, particularly insurance funds [9]. - Analysts suggest that while the banking sector faces challenges, a shift towards high-quality, sustainable growth is underway, emphasizing the importance of non-interest income and effective risk management [9][10]. - The recent rise in Agricultural Bank's market value reflects market expectations, supported by its strong fundamentals and asset quality [11].

Core Viewpoint - Qilu Bank has demonstrated solid performance in the first half of 2025, focusing on prudent management and optimizing its business structure, leading to significant growth in both scale and profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total assets increased by 8.96% year-on-year, reaching 751.305 billion yuan, with total loans growing by 10.16% and total deposits by 8.88% [1]. - Operating income rose to 6.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.734 billion yuan, up 16.48% [1]. - The net interest margin stabilized at 1.53%, reflecting a 2 basis point increase from 2024, indicating effective interest margin management [1][2]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.09%, down 0.10 percentage points from the end of the previous year, while the coverage ratio for provisions increased significantly to 343.24%, up 20.86 percentage points [3]. - The bank's loan distribution remains stable, with a notable decrease in the non-performing loan ratio in the manufacturing sector, attributed to effective risk management practices [3]. Growth in Specialized Financial Services - Qilu Bank has made significant strides in technology and green finance, with loans to technology enterprises reaching 40.812 billion yuan, a 17.60% increase, and green loans totaling 43.692 billion yuan, up 30.03% [4][5]. - The bank has implemented a comprehensive ESG risk management system and introduced innovative products like sustainable development-linked loans [5]. Retail and County Financial Services - Retail banking has seen substantial growth, with personal deposits increasing by 9.27% to 241.283 billion yuan and personal financial assets rising by 8.64% to 320.809 billion yuan [6]. - The bank has expanded its presence in county-level financial services, with 87 county branches and a customer base of 2.3608 million, reflecting a 5.15% growth [7]. Future Growth Potential - Qilu Bank has successfully converted 7.993 billion yuan of convertible bonds into common stock, enhancing its capital strength and core tier one capital ratio [8]. - The bank aims to align with national and regional development plans, focusing on specialized industries, retail transformation, and digital empowerment to drive high-quality growth [8].

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has achieved a remarkable turnaround, becoming the leader in A-share market capitalization among Chinese banks, with a stock price increase of over 40% year-to-date, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) [2][3][6] Market Performance - As of September 4, 2025, ABC's stock closed at 7.52 CNY per share, marking a 5.17% increase and a new historical high [2][3] - ABC's total market capitalization reached approximately 2.55 trillion CNY, overtaking ICBC's 2.49 trillion CNY [2][6] - Year-to-date, ABC's stock price has surged by 46.9%, while ICBC's has only increased by 13.66% [3][4] Strategic Success Factors - ABC's success is attributed to its "volume compensates for price" strategy, which focuses on expanding interest-earning assets, particularly in rural lending, to maintain revenue growth amid industry-wide margin pressures [2][10][14] - The bank's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 1,399.43 billion CNY, a 2.53% year-on-year increase, leading among the six major state-owned banks [10][13] Asset Quality and Risk Management - ABC has maintained a stable asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.28%, a historical low, and a provision coverage ratio of 297.81%, the highest among state-owned banks [13][20] - The bank's total assets reached 43.24 trillion CNY by the end of 2024, with an 8.44% growth rate, ranking second among state-owned banks [13] County-Level Financial Strategy - ABC has established a comprehensive county-level financial network with 2.29 million outlets, 56.6% of which are located in rural areas, creating a competitive advantage [15] - By the end of 2024, the bank's county-level loan balance was 9.85 trillion CNY, contributing significantly to its interest income [18] Non-Interest Income Growth - Non-interest income has become a crucial growth driver, with investment income reaching 231.53 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 52.54% increase year-on-year [19] - The bank's strategy to diversify its income sources is particularly important in a low-interest-rate environment [19] Future Outlook - ABC's management anticipates that net interest margins will stabilize in the second half of 2025, supported by effective loan structure optimization and cost management [14][20] - The bank's current price-to-book ratio stands at 0.98, with a dividend yield exceeding 3.2%, indicating attractive valuation prospects [20]

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has surpassed Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) with a market capitalization of 2.11 trillion yuan, becoming the new "market value king" among major banks, highlighting a shift in the competitive landscape of large state-owned banks [1][2]. Financial Performance Comparison - As of mid-2025, the total assets, operating income, and net profit of the three major banks show significant differences, with ICBC leading in all key metrics [3][4]. - ABC reported a total asset of 46.86 trillion yuan, operating income of 369.94 billion yuan (up 0.85% year-on-year), and net profit of 139.51 billion yuan (up 2.66% year-on-year), but lagged behind ICBC and China Construction Bank (CCB) in both operating income and net profit [3][5]. Retail Banking Strengths - ABC is the only major bank to achieve positive growth in net profit in the first half of 2025, with a leading position in asset quality metrics such as non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and provision coverage ratio [6]. - ABC leads the industry in personal financial business metrics, including personal customer count (888 million), personal loan balance (9.31 trillion yuan, up 5.6%), and personal deposit balance (20.15 trillion yuan, up 7.78%) [7][8]. County-Level Financial Services - The growth of ABC's retail banking is significantly driven by its county-level financial services, which contributed over 56.8% to the bank's pre-tax profit in the first half of 2025 [10][11]. - The bank's county-level deposits and loans have shown robust growth, with county-level loans exceeding 10 trillion yuan and growing faster than overall loan growth [11]. Challenges and Profitability Concerns - Despite strong growth, ABC's retail financial pre-tax profit declined over 23% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating potential challenges ahead [13][15]. - The decline in net interest income and an increase in credit impairment losses have contributed to the profitability pressures faced by ABC [15][16]. Asset Quality and Loan Performance - ABC's personal operating loans, which account for over 31% of its personal loans, have seen a significant increase in NPL ratio, raising concerns about asset quality as the loan balance reached 2.92 trillion yuan [18][19]. - The bank's average loan yield has decreased to 2.97%, while the average cost of deposits has not decreased proportionately, leading to a narrowing net interest margin [16][17]. Future Growth Strategies - ABC needs to develop a "second growth curve" as traditional retail banking models face challenges, particularly in adapting to new market conditions [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) [1][3] Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China demonstrated strong performance in non-interest income, with a year-on-year growth of 15.1% in the first half of 2025, significantly up from 11.1% in the first quarter [7] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.7% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in revenue growth [4][7] - The bank's total assets reached 46.9 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.6% year-on-year increase, with loans and deposits growing by 9.6% and 8.3% respectively [4][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Agricultural Bank achieved operating income of 369.9 billion yuan, a 0.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 139.5 billion yuan, up 2.7% [4][9] - The annualized return on equity (ROE) was reported at 10.2% [4] Income Breakdown - Non-interest income showed a significant increase, with fee income rising by 10.1% year-on-year, and other non-interest income growing by 23.2% [7][9] - Net interest income decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, influenced by a declining net interest margin of 1.32% [7][9] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.28%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 4 basis points [8] - The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 295%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [8] Future Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 0.84, 0.89, and 0.93 yuan respectively, with corresponding profit growth rates of 4.1%, 5.6%, and 5.4% [7][11] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.91x, 0.84x, and 0.78x [7][11]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, with a net profit of 4.33 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in net profit growth rate compared to the first quarter [1] - The company announced its first interim dividend with a payout ratio of 18.6% [1] - The net interest margin decreased significantly to 1.87%, down 25 basis points year-on-year, although it remains at a relatively good level compared to peers [1] Financial Performance - The company's net interest income fell by 1.7% year-on-year, with a decline of 3.5 percentage points in growth rate compared to the first quarter [1] - Loan yield decreased to 4.56%, down 75 basis points year-on-year [1] - Total assets reached 1.25 trillion yuan, with total loans of 600 billion yuan, reflecting growth of 8.8% and 10.6% respectively since the beginning of the year [1] Credit Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.17% as of June 2025, unchanged from the beginning of the year, but down 1 basis point from March [2] - The personal loan non-performing rate increased to 2.20%, up 33 basis points year-on-year [2] - The company maintained a stable provision coverage ratio at approximately 310% [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong presence in county-level markets, with county loans amounting to 229.2 billion yuan, accounting for 38.0% of total loans [1] - 48.3% of new credit in the first half of the year was directed towards county-level markets [1] - The county deposit balance reached 248.5 billion yuan, representing 32.7% of total deposits [1]

Core Viewpoint - Qilu Bank has demonstrated robust growth in assets, loans, and deposits in the first half of 2025, with significant increases in operating income and net profit, while maintaining a declining non-performing loan ratio and improving provision coverage ratio, showcasing strong asset quality resilience [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Qilu Bank's total assets reached 751.305 billion yuan, an increase of 8.96% from the end of the previous year [2]. - The total loan amount was 371.410 billion yuan, growing by 10.16%, with corporate loans (excluding discounts) increasing by 15.72% to 278.061 billion yuan [2]. - Total deposits amounted to 478.571 billion yuan, up 8.88%, with corporate deposits growing by 8.49% and personal deposits by 9.27% [2]. - Operating income for the first half of 2025 was 6.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, with net interest income rising by 13.29% to 4.986 billion yuan [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.734 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 16.48%, with basic earnings per share at 0.54 yuan, up 17.39% [3]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.09%, down by 0.10 percentage points from the end of the previous year, while the provision coverage ratio improved to 343.24%, an increase of 20.86 percentage points [4]. - The bank has implemented a comprehensive risk management mechanism, focusing on proactive risk identification and classification, which has effectively reduced the migration rate of attention loans by 9.23 percentage points to 26.96% [5]. Group 3: Strategic Focus Areas - Qilu Bank has made significant strides in technology and green finance, with loans to technology enterprises increasing by 17.60% to 40.812 billion yuan, and green loans growing by 30.03% to 43.692 billion yuan [6]. - The bank has deepened its focus on rural finance, with county-level deposits rising by 11.67% to 150.101 billion yuan and loans increasing by 10.97% to 110.892 billion yuan [9][10]. - The successful conversion of approximately 7.99 billion yuan of convertible bonds into equity has strengthened the bank's capital base, enhancing its core tier one capital adequacy ratio to an estimated 11.62% [11]. Group 4: Retail and Wealth Management - Qilu Bank has emphasized retail banking, enhancing customer engagement through digital transformation and targeted marketing strategies, resulting in personal financial assets growing by 8.64% to 320.809 billion yuan [8]. - The bank has launched innovative wealth management products and improved service offerings for high-net-worth clients, contributing to a 12.75% increase in mid-to-high-end customer accounts [8].

净利润增速提升，宣告首次中期分红。2025 年上半年实现营收132.5 亿元，同比增长1.6%，较一季度增 速回落2.2 个百分点；实现归母净利润43.3 亿元，同比增长5.1%，较一季度增速提升1.2 个百分点。公 司中期分红率18.6%。 对公贷款实现高增，零售端加大消费贷投放。2025 年6 月末，资产总额1.25万亿元，贷款总额0.60 万亿 元，较年初分别增长了8.8%和10.6%。信贷行业上，半年新增信贷576 亿元，其中对公、零售和票据分 别新增585 亿元、25 亿元和-34 亿元。消费贷新增57 亿元，较年初增长7.5%，占零售贷款比重为42%， 较年初提升了2 百分点；按揭和个人经营贷余额微降，信用卡贷款余额在主动降风险偏好下压降23 亿 元，较年初下降12.5%。信贷区域上，期末长沙市外湖南省区域信贷份额达到55.0%，较年初提升了4.2 个百分点。 净息差降幅较大，但绝对值依然处在同业较好水平。2025 年上半年净利息收入同比下降1.7%，较一季 度增速下降3.5 个百分点。上半年公司净息差1.87%，同比下降25bps。其中，贷款收益率4.56%，同比 下降75bps，公司存量贷款收 ...