Core Insights - Luckin Coffee's major shareholder, Dazhong Capital, is considering acquiring Costa Coffee from Coca-Cola, which is looking to sell the brand, highlighting a significant shift in the global coffee industry [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Ambitions and Industry Changes - Dazhong Capital currently holds 31.3% of Luckin Coffee's shares and 53.6% of its voting rights, indicating a strong influence in the company [2] - The interest in acquiring Costa Coffee follows Dazhong Capital's previous attempt to acquire a stake in Starbucks China, showcasing its ambition to expand beyond the budget coffee market and integrate the entire coffee supply chain [2] - The global coffee market is undergoing significant changes, with increased collaboration between Chinese capital and international coffee brands, as evidenced by Starbucks' joint venture with Boyu Capital and JDE Peet's acquisition by Keurig Dr Pepper [2] Group 2: Costa Coffee's Current Situation - Costa Coffee, acquired by Coca-Cola for £3.9 billion (approximately $5.1 billion) in 2018, has not performed as expected, with 2023 fiscal year revenues exceeding £1.2 billion, a 9% increase year-on-year but below 2018 levels, and a shift from a profit of £2.459 million to a pre-tax loss of £96,000 [3] - If Costa is sold for the rumored £1 billion valuation, it would represent a significant loss for Coca-Cola compared to its acquisition price seven years ago [3] Group 3: Complementary Synergies and Integration Prospects - The strategic complementarity between Costa and Luckin Coffee is a key motivation for Dazhong Capital's interest in the acquisition, as Costa's high-end positioning contrasts with Luckin's efficiency and mid-to-low price strategy [4] - Costa's extensive international network, with over 2,700 stores in the UK and Ireland and more than 1,300 globally, contrasts with Luckin's 27,000+ stores in China, indicating a gap in international presence for Luckin [4] - The integration post-acquisition could focus on replicating Luckin's successful "small store model" at Costa, enhancing digital capabilities, streamlining supply chains, and leveraging Costa's global footprint to facilitate Luckin's entry into European markets [6]

Group 1: General Information - The report is "Global Coffee Spot Market Scan - One of the 'Junyan Coffee' Series Reports", dated September 24, 2025, with analysts Zhou Xiaoqiu, Yin Kaiyi, and Li Junyu [1] Group 2: Report Core View - The global coffee production is highly concentrated, while consumption is relatively more dispersed. The end - of - period inventory - to - consumption ratio remains low. China's coffee market is growing rapidly, but its share in the global market is still small [2][3][28] Group 3: Natural Attributes of Coffee Beans 3.1 Natural Attributes of Coffee Trees - Coffee trees belong to the Rubiaceae family. They start bearing fruit in 3 years and enter the prime - bearing period in 4 - 5 years. Commercially, they are usually replanted every 20 - 30 years. In Yunnan, China, the flowering period is from February to July, and the coffee fruits mature from October to December [5] 3.2 Different Coffee Tree Planting Conditions and Yields - There are three main types of coffee beans: Arabica (70 - 75% of global production), Robusta (20 - 25%), and Liberica (2 - 3%). They have different requirements for altitude, temperature, precipitation, and light, and vary in pest resistance, main producing areas, commercial uses, and yields [8][9] 3.3 Coffee Tree Planting Regions - Global coffee tree planting is mainly concentrated in the "coffee belt" between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, where the climate is suitable for coffee tree growth [10] 3.4 Coffee Bean Processing and Consumption Forms - Coffee processing involves multiple steps. Coffee products are mainly divided into freshly - ground, instant, and ready - to - drink types, with freshly - ground coffee growing rapidly [12] Group 4: Global Coffee Market Overview 4.1 Global Coffee Production - USDA predicts that the global coffee production in 25/26 will be 10.72 million tons, with the top 5 producers accounting for 73.49%. Production has increased for three consecutive years, with a 2.46% year - on - year increase in 25/26 [15] 4.2 Global Coffee Consumption - The global coffee consumption is relatively more dispersed than production. USDA predicts that the global consumption in 25/26 will be 10.16 million tons, with the top 5 consumers accounting for 59.92%. Consumption is expected to increase by 1.71% year - on - year in 25/26 [19] 4.3 Global Coffee Trade - Over 80% of coffee production is for export, and exports are highly concentrated. USDA predicts that the global coffee export in 25/26 will be 8.91 million tons. The top 5 exporters account for 65.18%. The import concentration is relatively more dispersed [23][25] 4.4 Global Coffee Supply - Demand Balance - The global coffee end - of - period inventory - to - consumption ratio remains low. USDA predicts that in 25/26, production will be 10.72 million tons, consumption 10.16 million tons, and the end - of - period inventory 1.37 million tons [28] Group 5: Chinese Coffee Market Overview 5.1 Chinese Coffee Production - USDA predicts that China's coffee production in 25/26 will be 114,000 tons, accounting for 1.06% of the global total. 98% of China's coffee is produced in Yunnan, mainly in Pu'er, Baoshan, Xishuangbanna, and Dehong [31] 5.2 Chinese Coffee Consumption - China's coffee consumption market is growing rapidly, and the industry concentration is increasing. However, its share in global coffee consumption is still low. USDA predicts that China's apparent coffee consumption in 25/26 will be 350,000 tons, accounting for 3.45% of the global total [34]