来源：新浪证券 交银国际近日发布最新研报，维持对在线教育公司高途（NYSE： GOTU）的"买入"评级，并重申5.2美 元的目标股价。 报告指出，尽管高途2025年第三季度线下业务招生进度略低于预期，导致全年利润预测有所下调，但其 核心线上教育业务表现稳健，K12及成人教育板块均符合此前预期。分析师认为，凭借公司在在线教育 领域的长期积累和运营优势，叠加人口结构变化带来的结构性机会，高途在教培行业的长期增长逻辑未 发生改变。 根据交银国际测算，高途2025年收入有望同比增长35%，2026年增速预计为20%。虽然2025年全年仍将 录得约5.1亿元人民币的调整后运营亏损，但亏损规模持续收窄——仅第三季度亏损1.75亿元，同比大幅 减少63%。随着费用结构优化和获客效率提升，公司有望在2026年实现整体盈利。 值得注意的是，预计高途第三季度毛利率环比和同比分别提升0.5和2.5个百分点，主要受益于暑期旺季 线下教室利用率提高。展望第四季度，机构预计公司收款和收入增速分别为10%和21%，全年收入增速 仍可达到35%。 交银国际表示，2026年高途将聚焦提升线下教学质量与运营效率，在保持现有教学点规模的基础上扩大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of university tuition fees in China, highlighting the shift from affordable education to a financial burden for families, as universities transition from being seen as a public good to a cost-driven entity [9][12][35]. Group 1: Tuition Fee Increases - By the summer of 2025, university tuition fees are expected to enter the "10,000 yuan era," with an average increase of about 10% across many institutions [5][18]. - Some provincial universities have raised fees by 500 to 2,000 yuan, while private institutions have seen even steeper increases, with annual fees reaching as high as 43,000 yuan [7][19]. - The increase in tuition fees is a response to the rising costs of education and the financial pressures faced by universities, particularly public institutions that are increasingly reliant on tuition to cover operational costs [15][24]. Group 2: Economic Context - The average annual tuition fee now represents a significant portion of a typical worker's salary, with one year of tuition potentially exhausting a family's annual income [8][22]. - The median disposable income for urban residents in 2024 is projected to be 49,302 yuan, while rural residents will see a median of 19,605 yuan, emphasizing the financial strain of rising tuition [20]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Higher Education - The article notes a dramatic increase in university enrollment since 1999, with the number of students rising from 1.5 million to an expected 12.22 million by 2025, leading to a shift from elite to mass education [13][37]. - As government funding decreases, universities are adopting business-like strategies, including outsourcing services and monetizing campus resources, to maintain financial viability [29][30]. - The financial model of universities is evolving, with institutions now viewing educational resources as products to be sold, leading to a commodification of education [32][44]. Group 4: Employment and Graduate Outcomes - Despite a stable employment rate of around 89%, many graduates are finding themselves in jobs unrelated to their degrees, with a significant percentage of graduates opting for further studies to avoid immediate employment pressures [37][41]. - The average monthly salary for recent graduates is reported to be 6,050 yuan, with a large portion earning below 6,000 yuan, indicating a disconnect between educational investment and job market returns [39][43]. Group 5: Societal Implications - The rising costs of education and the phenomenon of "degree inflation" are creating barriers for lower-income families, leading to a stratification in access to higher education [38][44]. - The article suggests that the perception of university education is shifting from a societal investment to a personal financial burden, with implications for social mobility and equity in education [34][46].