Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong real estate stocks experienced an afternoon rally, driven by market expectations of favorable government policies in the upcoming 2025 policy address [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) rose by 4.33% to HKD 97.55 - Hang Lung Properties (00101) increased by 2.33% to HKD 8.8 - Henderson Land Development (00012) gained 2.07% to HKD 27.6 - Hysan Development (00014) climbed 1.71% to HKD 16.08 [1] Group 2: Government Policy Expectations - The Hong Kong government is set to announce the 2025 policy address on Wednesday, 17th [1] - UBS anticipates the government will further reduce the stamp duty on residential properties valued between HKD 4 million to HKD 6 million [1] - Proposed measures include the establishment of a "Home Purchase Fund" plan and further relaxation of residential property investment qualifications for capital investors [1] Group 3: Impact on Real Estate Developers - The new policy address is expected to benefit developers such as Henderson Land, Sun Hung Kai Properties, and Sino Land [1] - Increased mainland visitor arrivals are projected to support regional mall owners, including Wharf Real Estate Investment and Hysan Development [1] - Accelerated development in the Northern Metropolis may pose negative implications for MTR Corporation due to rising capital expenditure concerns, but could positively impact land reclamation for Henderson Land [1] Group 4: REITs and Market Outlook - UBS forecasts that the inclusion of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the mutual market connectivity will have a positive effect on Link REIT [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a return rate of approximately 10% for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in 2025, with varying growth potential across different property types [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Expected Returns - The expected return for REITs in 2025 is driven by a 4% dividend yield, 2%-7% growth in funds from operations (FFO), and potential valuation expansion [1] Market Performance - REITs have shown strong performance at the start of 2025, but recent market volatility makes future trends uncertain [1] - Historical trends indicate that when economic downturn risks transition from mere concerns to actual impacts on corporate earnings, market focus on REITs tends to increase [1] Interest Rate Impact - Higher interest rates, particularly the influence of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, pose risks to stock performance [1] Earnings Expectations - REIT earnings are projected to grow by approximately 3% in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, with an acceleration to nearly 6% growth expected by 2026 [1] - The growth opportunities for REITs are anticipated as more real estate assets re-enter the market, which could drive earnings acceleration in 2026 [1] - In the event of a significant economic slowdown, REITs may exhibit greater earnings resilience compared to most market sectors [1] Key REITs with High Returns - Notable REITs expected to exceed a 10% return in 2025 include: - Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC.US) - Paramount Group (PGRE.US) - EPR Properties (EPR.US) - American Healthcare REIT (AHR.US) - Peakstone Realty Trust (PKST.US) - Welltower (WELL.US) - JBG SMITH Properties (JBGS.US) - American Tower (AMT.US) - Medical Properties Trust (MPW.US) - W. P. Carey (WPC.US) - NETSTREIT (NTST.US) - Alexander's (ALX.US) - Postal Realty Trust (PSTL.US) - VICI Properties (VICI.US) - SBA Communications (SBAC.US) - Crown Castle (CCI.US) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the introduction of new financing systems is essential to support the sustainable stability of the real estate market, as the focus of residents has shifted from "availability" to "quality" in housing consumption [1] - The new financing systems are expected to target three main areas: personal housing, real estate development, and urban renewal [1][2] - Financial policies announced on May 7 aim to enhance market activity by providing significant liquidity and reducing borrowing costs for homebuyers, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, and a 0.25 percentage point cut in personal housing loan rates [2][3] Group 2 - The financing system is anticipated to improve the financial structure of real estate companies, helping them address development challenges and transition from a focus on scale to one on quality [2][3] - Specific measures include expanding the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, increasing support for high-quality housing supply, addressing corporate debt issues, and enhancing financial support for rental housing construction and operation [3][4] - The new financing system for urban renewal projects will involve multi-party cooperation, with government incentives and diverse financing products to mobilize capital for complex projects [4]