Export Performance - In September, China's exports rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, up 3.9 percentage points from August, attributed mainly to a low base effect[2] - Exports to the US, EU, and UK improved by 6.1, 3.8, and 2.0 percentage points respectively, although exports to ASEAN dropped by 6.9 percentage points to 15.6%[3] - The contribution of capital goods exports to overall export improvement rose by 2.1 percentage points, driven by the US's accelerated reconstruction of domestic capacity[4] Import Trends - Imports in September saw a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year, with a significant rise in capital goods imports by 13.8%[4] - The trade surplus narrowed slightly to $90.45 billion due to the simultaneous increase in imports[2] Trade Relations and Risks - The ongoing uncertainty in US-China trade relations, including threats of additional tariffs and export controls, remains a critical variable affecting future export performance[2] - The imposition of a 40% tariff on transshipment goods by the US has already impacted exports to ASEAN, indicating potential future challenges[5] - The report highlights the need for close monitoring of US-China negotiations, especially with a key date of November 1 approaching, which may accelerate discussions[5]