【窩輪透視】紫金礦業熊證2天暴漲50%，背後關鍵邏輯拆解 今日（10日）上午10點08分，紫金礦業（02899）最新報價32.66元，較前一交易日收盤暫時微漲0.49%，成交額暫時達2.49億元，延續了近期的震盪調整態 勢。 金礦股份化+紫金回調，異動原因拆解 近期金礦股板塊受美元走勢波動及國際金價震盪影響，表現明顯分化。2025年以來國際金價屢創新高，年內漲幅近58%，但短期在高位出現分歧，帶動板塊 個股調整。 從個股數據來看，紫金礦業12月9日收報32.5元，單日回調4.24%，成交額高達17.18億元。技術面顯示，該股支撐位分別為29.6元、31.3元，阻力位34.1元、 35.4元，上升概率0.54，5日振幅7.1%。RSI指標為53，技術指標總結信號為賣出，信號強度8，多個震盪指標呈現中立或賣出信號，短期調整壓力仍存。 板塊內其他個股表現分化：山東黃金（01787）技術指標顯示超賣，股價在32.84元獲得支撐，單日下跌2.55%，成交額2.44億元；招金礦業（01818）下跌 3.51%收於27.5元，RSI指標進入超賣區間，短期或有技術性反彈；SPDR金ETF（02840）微跌0.66%，報299 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's recent stock performance has attracted market attention, with the stock price hovering around 31 HKD, showing a slight increase of 0.65% and a trading volume of 883 million HKD, indicating continued capital inflow [1] Technical Analysis - Multiple indicators are currently neutral, but volatility and bullish-bearish strength indicators have issued buy signals, suggesting potential momentum is building [1] - The stock price is close to the 10-day moving average of 30.87 HKD and the 30-day moving average of 31.79 HKD, creating a short-term battleground; the direction of the breakout from this key level will determine future trends [1] - Key resistance levels are at 32.4 HKD and 33.7 HKD, while initial support is at 29.8 HKD and a significant defense level at 28.3 HKD [1] - The Bollinger Bands and MACD indicators are slightly bearish, but momentum shows signs of weakening, with the RSI at a neutral level of 47, indicating potential for a rebound [1] - The current 5-day volatility is 5.7%, which is relatively moderate, leaving room for future fluctuations [1] Derivative Products Performance - Recent data shows that when Zijin Mining's stock rises by 2.38% over two days, related derivative products outperform the stock itself, with HSBC's bull certificate (53267) rising by 34% and JPMorgan's bull certificate (53891) increasing by 30% [3] - In terms of call options, JPMorgan's call option (20232) and Bank of China's call option (20015) achieved increases of 15% and 11%, respectively, both significantly outperforming the underlying stock [3] - This trend highlights the leverage effect of derivative products, particularly bull certificates, which can yield substantial returns when the underlying stock shows a clear direction [3] Leverage and Risk - The market offers various options for high-risk investors, such as HSBC's bull certificate (53267) with a leverage of 10.5 times and a redemption price of 29 HKD, which presents a favorable premium level [6] - Morgan Stanley's call option (20411) provides a leverage of 7.2 times with an exercise price of 36.02 HKD, while Societe Generale's call option (20250) offers 6.7 times leverage with an exercise price of 36 HKD, both showing ideal implied volatility [6]