山東黃金（01787）近期受國際金價波動影響，呈現劇烈震盪走勢。從技術面分析，該股目前價位38.36元已突破十日移動平均線，並大幅高於三十日線30.99 元及六十日線28.93元，顯示中期趨勢偏強。然而相對強弱指數（rsi）達77水平，威廉指標與隨機震盪指標均顯示超買狀態，同時動量指標出現頂背離賣出 信號，這些技術指標暗示股價可能面臨回調壓力。不過，牛熊力量指標與macd仍維持買入信號，反映多空力量正在激烈博弈。 回顧昨日專欄【港股Podcast】中提到山東黃金 (01787.HK)：黃金再創高位，投資者問還上升空間？窩輪市場上，在上週有投資者持有認購證， 行使價33.93元 Simon:收市價38.26元。過往兩日的升幅比較顯著。目前短線的技術信號總結"賣出"。阻力位在40.6元和43.1元。下方的支持位在33.4元和30.6元 關鍵價位方面，初步支持位落在34.4元，若跌破則可能下探30.6元關卡。上行阻力先看40.7元，突破後有望挑戰43.2元目標位。特別值得注意的是，該股五日 振幅高達14%，市場參與度相當活躍，但波動風險也隨之增加。從保力加通道觀察，股價波動區間持續擴張，投資者需謹慎控制倉位。 | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that spot gold prices have reached new highs, indicating a strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Spot gold prices have increased significantly, reflecting a rise of approximately 1.5% in the last week alone [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns are driving investors towards gold, further pushing prices upward [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The report notes that the U.S. dollar's weakness has contributed to the rise in gold prices, as a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign investors [1] - Additionally, the report mentions that central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves, which is a bullish indicator for the gold market [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,344 points, with short-term technical signals indicating a "buy" but not a "strong buy" [1] - Resistance levels are identified at 26,840 points and 27,500 points, while support levels are at 25,700 points and 25,000 points [1] - Investors are advised to consider the premium levels of products, as high premiums can affect purchase prices [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) - Sunny Optical's stock rose to a high of 87.7 HKD, closing at 87 HKD, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band [3] - Current technical signals suggest a "sell" with slight bearish sentiment, and the first resistance level is at 91.2 HKD [3] - Investors are encouraged to compare options with a 2%-3% out-of-the-money range for better leverage [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Shandong Gold (01787.HK) - Shandong Gold's stock closed at 38.26 HKD, showing significant gains over the past two days [6] - Current technical signals indicate a "sell," with resistance levels at 40.6 HKD and 43.1 HKD, and support levels at 33.4 HKD and 30.6 HKD [6] Group 4: Company Analysis - SMIC (00981.HK) - SMIC's stock reached a high of 74.05 HKD, with current technical signals summarizing as "sell" [9] - Support levels are noted at 64.7 HKD and 58.6 HKD, with a recommendation for safer options around 58-59 HKD [9] Group 5: Company Analysis - WuXi Biologics (02269.HK) - WuXi Biologics' stock peaked at 40.2 HKD, closing at 40.08 HKD, with short-term technical signals indicating a "sell" [12] - Resistance levels are at 42.1 HKD and 43.8 HKD, while support levels are at 36.8 HKD and 33.6 HKD [12] Group 6: Company Analysis - Lenovo Group (00992.HK) - Lenovo's stock closed at 12.2 HKD, with technical signals summarizing as "sell" and short-term outlook being pessimistic [15] - Resistance levels are at 12.6 HKD and 13.4 HKD, with support levels at 11.5 HKD and 11 HKD [15]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Zhaojin Mining (01818) showed strong performance, reaching HKD 25.82 with a daily increase of 4.42%, indicating growing market interest in gold-related assets [1] Technical Analysis - Current support levels for Zhaojin Mining are at HKD 22.3 (Support 1) and HKD 21.1 (Support 2), while the upper resistance level has been broken at HKD 25.4 (Resistance 1), with a potential challenge of HKD 26.4 (Resistance 2) [3] - The stock price has surpassed the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages (HKD 22.16, HKD 21.47, and HKD 20.99 respectively), indicating a bullish trend [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 69, nearing the overbought zone, suggesting potential short-term technical adjustment pressure [3] - Other oscillators, such as the Williams and Stochastic indicators, also indicate an overbought condition, prompting caution regarding possible pullback risks [3] Product Review - Recent performance of Zhaojin Mining's related warrants has been notable, with the JPMorgan call warrant (27406) and UBS call warrant (27337) recording increases of 20% and 22% respectively within two days, while the underlying stock rose by 6.26% [3] - Investors are advised to consider call warrants with moderate out-of-the-money levels and higher leverage ratios, such as Citibank call warrant (19603) with a strike price of HKD 32.38 and leverage of 3.4x, and JPMorgan call warrant (16322) with a strike price of HKD 30.93 and leverage of 4.77x [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold stock sector, particularly Zijin Mining (02899.HK), has become a focal point for capital as commodity prices stabilize globally, with the stock showing strong upward momentum since late June [1]. Technical Analysis - Zijin Mining has entered a strong upward channel with clear short to medium-term buy signals, making it one of the most attractive stocks in the gold resource sector for technical deployment [1]. - As of July 4, 2025, Zijin Mining's stock price was 21 HKD, down 1.18%, with a five-day volatility of 10.2%, indicating active capital inflow and strong buying interest [1]. - The stock price has stabilized above all major moving averages, with MA10 at 19.82 HKD, MA30 at 19 HKD, and MA60 at 18 HKD, forming a typical bullish arrangement that supports the short to medium-term upward trend [1]. - Technical summary signals indicate a "strong buy" with a signal strength of 16, suggesting a consensus among major indicators leaning towards bullish [6]. Market Performance - On June 30, Zijin Mining's stock price rose by 5.99%, and related call warrant products performed exceptionally well, with JPMorgan's call warrant 13311 and UBS's call warrant 15682 achieving a 29% increase within two trading days, demonstrating nearly five times leverage [1]. - The high consistency in performance among similar call warrant products reflects a trend where similar terms lead to converging movements in a bullish market environment, providing investors with diversified product options [1]. Momentum Indicators - The RSI currently stands at 74, indicating an overbought condition, but no significant signs of a pullback have emerged, suggesting that the strong trend continues [3]. - The MACD shows a continuous upward trend without negative divergence, indicating substantial buying support [3]. - Multiple support levels are identified at 20 HKD and 18.7 HKD, while the short-term resistance level is at 22.1 HKD; a breakthrough at this level could lead to challenges at higher resistance levels of 22.8 HKD or beyond [3]. Trading Strategy - If the stock price retraces to around 20 HKD without breaking below, it could be seen as an ideal entry opportunity [6]. - The first target price for a short to medium-term strategy is set at 22.1 HKD, with a potential upward movement towards 22.8 HKD if the resistance is breached [6]. - For those optimistic about Zijin Mining's performance, considering call warrants such as those issued by Bank of China (16128 and 16925) could be beneficial, with exercise prices of 21.88 HKD and 25.33 HKD, and leverage ratios of 3.4 and 4.9 respectively [6].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 23,000 to 24,000 points due to a series of financial policies introduced in mainland China to stabilize the market and expectations, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - The U.S. and China have agreed to lower tariffs, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [1] Sector Outlook - Gold mining stocks are favored in the short term due to geopolitical tensions and central banks continuing to increase their gold holdings [2] Corporate News - Alibaba (9988) has integrated its food delivery platform Ele.me and travel platform Fliggy into its e-commerce business group, aiming for a strategic upgrade towards a comprehensive consumer platform [3][12] - Meituan (3690) is expanding its instant retail business, enhancing its supply chain digitalization capabilities and aiming to cover all first and second-tier cities [3][12] - BYD (1211) is reported to be providing rebates to dealers, with the scale expected to exceed 1 billion RMB [3] - China Hongqiao (1378) anticipates a 35% increase in net profit for the first half of the year due to product price increases [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% in 2025, while the inflation outlook remains uncertain [4] - China's land sales revenue fell to 194.1 billion RMB in May, the lowest in a decade, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China aims to increase gold resource volume by 5%-10% and silver production by over 5% by 2027 [10] IPO and Investment Climate - Hong Kong's IPO fundraising is expected to reach nearly 80 billion HKD this year, placing it among the top globally [11] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is preparing for potential interest rate increases as the Hong Kong dollar approaches its weak end of the trading band [10]