Core Viewpoint - The gold stock sector, particularly Zijin Mining (02899.HK), has become a focal point for capital as commodity prices stabilize globally, with the stock showing strong upward momentum since late June [1]. Technical Analysis - Zijin Mining has entered a strong upward channel with clear short to medium-term buy signals, making it one of the most attractive stocks in the gold resource sector for technical deployment [1]. - As of July 4, 2025, Zijin Mining's stock price was 21 HKD, down 1.18%, with a five-day volatility of 10.2%, indicating active capital inflow and strong buying interest [1]. - The stock price has stabilized above all major moving averages, with MA10 at 19.82 HKD, MA30 at 19 HKD, and MA60 at 18 HKD, forming a typical bullish arrangement that supports the short to medium-term upward trend [1]. - Technical summary signals indicate a "strong buy" with a signal strength of 16, suggesting a consensus among major indicators leaning towards bullish [6]. Market Performance - On June 30, Zijin Mining's stock price rose by 5.99%, and related call warrant products performed exceptionally well, with JPMorgan's call warrant 13311 and UBS's call warrant 15682 achieving a 29% increase within two trading days, demonstrating nearly five times leverage [1]. - The high consistency in performance among similar call warrant products reflects a trend where similar terms lead to converging movements in a bullish market environment, providing investors with diversified product options [1]. Momentum Indicators - The RSI currently stands at 74, indicating an overbought condition, but no significant signs of a pullback have emerged, suggesting that the strong trend continues [3]. - The MACD shows a continuous upward trend without negative divergence, indicating substantial buying support [3]. - Multiple support levels are identified at 20 HKD and 18.7 HKD, while the short-term resistance level is at 22.1 HKD; a breakthrough at this level could lead to challenges at higher resistance levels of 22.8 HKD or beyond [3]. Trading Strategy - If the stock price retraces to around 20 HKD without breaking below, it could be seen as an ideal entry opportunity [6]. - The first target price for a short to medium-term strategy is set at 22.1 HKD, with a potential upward movement towards 22.8 HKD if the resistance is breached [6]. - For those optimistic about Zijin Mining's performance, considering call warrants such as those issued by Bank of China (16128 and 16925) could be beneficial, with exercise prices of 21.88 HKD and 25.33 HKD, and leverage ratios of 3.4 and 4.9 respectively [6].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 23,000 to 24,000 points due to a series of financial policies introduced in mainland China to stabilize the market and expectations, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - The U.S. and China have agreed to lower tariffs, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [1] Sector Outlook - Gold mining stocks are favored in the short term due to geopolitical tensions and central banks continuing to increase their gold holdings [2] Corporate News - Alibaba (9988) has integrated its food delivery platform Ele.me and travel platform Fliggy into its e-commerce business group, aiming for a strategic upgrade towards a comprehensive consumer platform [3][12] - Meituan (3690) is expanding its instant retail business, enhancing its supply chain digitalization capabilities and aiming to cover all first and second-tier cities [3][12] - BYD (1211) is reported to be providing rebates to dealers, with the scale expected to exceed 1 billion RMB [3] - China Hongqiao (1378) anticipates a 35% increase in net profit for the first half of the year due to product price increases [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% in 2025, while the inflation outlook remains uncertain [4] - China's land sales revenue fell to 194.1 billion RMB in May, the lowest in a decade, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China aims to increase gold resource volume by 5%-10% and silver production by over 5% by 2027 [10] IPO and Investment Climate - Hong Kong's IPO fundraising is expected to reach nearly 80 billion HKD this year, placing it among the top globally [11] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is preparing for potential interest rate increases as the Hong Kong dollar approaches its weak end of the trading band [10]