大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 10 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一部分 | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 2,022.5 | 10.0 | 0.50% | 34,566.0 | 36.10% | 30,945.0 | -1.29% | | EC2510 | 1,401.1 | 11.1 | 0.80% | 13,584.0 | 32.01% | 29,957.0 | 1.06% | | EC2512 | 1,556.4 | 2.7 | 0.17% | 1,644.0 | -21.15% | 6,032.0 | -1.08% | | EC2602 | 1,365.7 | 12.3 ...

Core Points - The Baltic Dry Index has fallen to a one-month low due to declining freight rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels [1] - The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 15 points or 1% to 1443 points, marking the lowest level since June 3 [1] - The Capesize vessel index dropped by 53 points or 2.6% to 1958 points, the lowest in over a month [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels decreased by $435 to $16,242 [1] - The Panamax vessel index fell by 8 points or 0.5% to 1492 points [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels declined by $74 to $13,424 [1] - The Supramax vessel index increased by 13 points to 1031 points [1]

Group 1 - The Baltic Dry Index experienced a slight decline due to decreased demand for Capesize vessels, dropping by 16 points or 1% to 1665 points, marking the lowest level since June 6 [1] - The Capesize vessel index fell by 93 points or 3.3% to 2724 points, the lowest since June 4, and has now declined for seven consecutive trading days [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels decreased by $768 to $22,592 [1] Group 2 - The Panamax vessel index increased by 41 points or 3% to 1425 points, marking a rise for the third consecutive trading day [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels rose by $370 to $12,825 [1] - The Supramax vessel index increased by 11 points or 1.1% to 994 points [1]

Core Points - The Baltic Dry Index has declined due to a drop in freight rates for large vessels [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 23 points, or 1.16%, to 1952 points [1] - The Capesize vessel index decreased by 71 points, or 1.9%, to 3660 points [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels dropped by $587 to $30,357 [1] Group 2: Other Vessel Types - The Panamax vessel index decreased by 4 points, or 0.3%, to 1406 points [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels fell by $42 to $12,652 [1] - The Supramax vessel index increased by 6 points to 945 points, marking the highest level in nearly two weeks [1] - The Handysize vessel index rose by 7 points to 614 points [1]

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index has reached an eight-month high, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk shipping rates [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 7 points, or 0.4%, to 1975 points, marking the highest level since October 2 of the previous year [1] - The Capesize vessel index rose by 9 points, or 0.2%, to 3731 points, the highest since July 2024 [1] - The Panamax vessel index also saw an increase of 9 points, or 0.6%, reaching 1410 points, the highest in over ten weeks [1] Group 2: Daily Earnings - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels increased by $78 to $30,944 [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels rose by $84 to $12,694 [1] - The Supramax vessel index increased by 3 points to 939 points, the highest in nearly two weeks [1]

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index has reached a nearly seven-month high due to strong demand for large vessels [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 58 points, or 3.6%, to 1691 points, marking the highest level since November 18 of the previous year [1] - The Capesize vessel index rose by 168 points, or 5.9%, to 3010 points, also nearing a seven-month high [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels surged by $1389 to $24961 [1] Group 2: Other Vessel Categories - The Panamax index increased by 18 points, or 1.5%, to 1264 points, reaching a two-week high [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels rose by $168 to $11378 [1] - The Supramax index declined by 7 points to 926 points, the lowest since March 13 [1]

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has recorded its best weekly increase since early March, driven by a rise in Panamax freight rates [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 7 points or 0.4% to 1633 points, marking a weekly rise of approximately 15%, the best performance in 13 weeks [1] - The Capesize Index decreased by 3 points or 0.1% to 2842 points, ending a seven-day streak of gains, but still saw a cumulative increase of nearly 25% for the week [1] - The Capesize vessels' daily earnings fell by $20 to $23,572 [1] Group 2: Panamax and Supramax Index Performance - The Panamax Index rose by 35 points or 2.9% to 1246 points, with a weekly increase of 8.2%, the best weekly performance since late April 2025 [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels increased by $311 to $11,210 [1] - The Supramax Index declined by 3 points to 933 points, reaching its lowest level since March 14, with a weekly drop of nearly 2% [1]

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index continues to rise, reaching a two-month high, indicating strong demand in the dry bulk shipping market [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 59 points or 4.1%, reaching 1489 points, the highest level since April 4 [1] - The index has recorded an increase for six consecutive trading days [1] Group 2: Capesize and Panamax Rates - The Capesize vessel rate index rose by 148 points or 6.3%, reaching 2481 points, the highest since March 27 [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels increased by $1226, reaching $20576 [1] - The Panamax vessel rate index increased by 37 points or 3.3%, reaching 1145 points, marking a one-week high [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels rose by $334, reaching $10307 [1] Group 3: Supramax Rates - The Supramax vessel rate index decreased by 2 points, reaching 940 points, the lowest level since April 15 [1]

关注出口韧性下的航运板块机会 20250603 中国 2025 年出口韧性的主要原因是什么？ 中国 2025 年出口韧性主要有两个原因：首先是外部因素，即抢出口行为因谈 判不确定性可能延续时间较长；其次是内部因素，即中国自身贸易对象多元化 和竞争力提升。从 2018 年至 2024 年，中国超过 56%的出口增量来自于美国、 集运市场运力增长在 2024 年达到最高峰后预计将逐步下降，但地缘政 治冲突和不稳定的大环境导致航运结构性紧张持续存在，为航运板块带 来投资机会。贸易供应链重构导致航线拉长，增加了运输需求。 集运领域，国内海控和港股海丰国际值得关注，这些公司分红可观且现 金流充裕。此外，在东南亚区域占比较高的锦江航运也有良好表现。短 期来看油轮和散货船市场较为低迷，但中长期原油供给有保障。 欧盟、东盟等传统贸易伙伴之外的经济体，而美国仅贡献了 4.2%。此外，中 国商品的竞争力指数明显提升，尤其是在技术含量较高的工业品领域，如车辆、 航空器、船舶和运输设备，以及光学医疗仪器等方面。 当前国内基本面环境对航运板块有何影响？ 摘要 中国出口展现超预期韧性，前四个月同比增长 6.4%，显著高于去年同 期的 1 ...

Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index has increased, marking a weekly rise due to the surge in Capesize freight rates [1] Freight Rate Indices - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 65 points, or 4.8%, reaching 1418 points, the highest level in four weeks since May 2 [1] - The Baltic Dry Index recorded a weekly increase of 5.8% [1] - The Capesize freight rate index increased by 218 points, or 10.6%, to 2277 points, with a weekly rise of 20% [1] - The Capesize vessels' average daily earnings rose by $1811 to $18885 [1] - The Panamax freight rate index decreased by 18 points, or 1.6%, to 1119 points, with a weekly decline of 10% [1] - The average daily earnings for Panamax vessels fell by $163 to $10071 [1] - The Supramax freight rate index dropped by 5 points to 951 points, with a weekly decline of 3% [1]