Group 1 - Company plans to issue A-shares to raise up to 8 billion yuan for the construction of 6 VLCCs, 2 LNG carriers, and 3 Aframax tankers to optimize fleet structure and enhance competitiveness [1] - The average age of the company's tanker fleet is projected to reach 14 years by the end of July 2025, indicating an urgent need for fleet renewal [1] - The stock price of the company increased by over 8% in early trading, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the announcement [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has confirmed a new production increase plan, signaling a focus on market share rather than price, which may lead to lower oil prices [1] - The decision by OPEC+ to maintain production levels despite low oil prices is expected to stimulate effective demand and drive an upward cycle in tanker transportation demand [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)早盘涨超8%，截至发稿，涨5.3%，报8.74港元，成交额1.33亿港 元。 此外，OPEC+近日敲定下一轮增产计划。兴业证券指出，本次OPEC+确认将开启下一轮增产，虽每月 增产量低于上一轮，但其在低油价下维持增产这一行为本身，即向市场传递了其"重视份额而非价格"， 决意长期增产的强烈信号。由此，原油价格有望被进一步压低，充分激发有效需求，带动油轮运输需求 进入上行周期。 消息面上，9月8日，中远海能发布公告称，计划发行A股股票筹资不超过80亿元，将用于投资建造6艘 VLCC、2艘LNG运输船以及3艘阿芙拉型原油轮，以优化船队结构、提升运力及增强公司竞争力。据 悉，目前中远海能油轮船队老化严重，2025年7月末油轮船队平均船龄已达到14年，运力出清已来到紧 迫时点。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Frontline reported a profit of $0.35 per share and an adjusted profit of NOK 80.4 million or $0.36 per share in Q2 2025, with adjusted profit increasing by $40 million compared to the previous quarter due to higher TCE earnings [5][6] - TCE earnings rose from SEK 241 million in the previous quarter to SEK 283 million in Q2 2025, driven by increased TCE rates [5][6] - The company has strong liquidity with $844 million in cash and cash equivalents, and no meaningful debt maturities until 2030 [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The TCE numbers for the fleet in 2025 are as follows: $43,100 per day for VLCCs, $38,900 for Suezmax, and $29,300 for LR2Aframax, showing an increase from Q1 but falling short of expectations [3][4] - 82% of VLCC days are booked at $38,700 per day, 76% of Suezmax days at $37,200, and 73% of LR2Aframax days at $36,600 [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The compliant tanker fleet is experiencing improved utilization as compliant oil exports grow, with significant increases in global crude production and exports expected [11][12] - The EIA projects a year-on-year growth of 3 million barrels per day in global oil supply by Q4, translating to an increase of approximately 2 million barrels per day in exports [13][14] - The market is seeing a shift in oil flows, with U.S. exports to Asia increasing, which could impact long-haul VLCC trade dynamics [28][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on the compliant fleet's utilization and the impact of trade policies on crude sourcing, indicating a potential "compliant bull market" [24][25] - There is a limited order book for new vessels, with expectations that the tanker market will remain tight due to an aging fleet and limited newbuilding activity [22][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the tanker market is currently in a challenging environment due to global conflicts and trade policies, but there are signs of improvement in oil demand and compliant fleet utilization [2][11] - The company anticipates a stable demand growth for compliant oil, supported by improving refinery margins and a seasonal strong summer market [24][25] Other Important Information - The average cash breakeven rates for the next twelve months are estimated at approximately $28,700 per day for VLCCs and $22,900 for Suezmax and LR2 tankers [7][8] - The fleet consists of 41 VLCCs, 21 Suezmax tankers, and 18 LR2 tankers, all of which are eco vessels [6][7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Follow-up on U.S. and VLCC exports to Asia - Management acknowledged the potential for increased U.S. exports to Asia and discussed the impact of OPEC's incremental volume on long-haul VLCC trade dynamics as winter approaches [28][29][30] Question: Recent gains in VLCC spot rates - Management attributed the recent gains in VLCC spot rates to a shift in oil supply dynamics, with compliant sources replacing Russian and Iranian oil, and expressed optimism about breaking through the $50,000 per day ceiling [32][33][34]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of approximately RMB 11.573 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 2.5% [1] - The profit attributable to equity holders of the company was approximately RMB 1.894 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of about 29.0%, although there was a quarter-on-quarter increase of 61.0% from the first to the second quarter [1] - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both RMB 0.3971 [1] Fleet and Operations - As of June 30, 2025, the company owned and controlled a fleet of 157 oil tankers with a total deadweight tonnage of 23.448 million [1] - The company has invested in the construction of 87 LNG vessels, of which 52 are currently in operation, with a total capacity of 8.763 million cubic meters [1] - Additionally, the company has one chartered LNG vessel in operation with a capacity of 174,000 cubic meters [1] - The company also owns and controls 12 LPG carriers with a capacity of 126,000 cubic meters and 8 chemical tankers with a deadweight tonnage of 7.3 million [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 7.90, down 24% from the previous target price [7][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 12.58 billion for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, and a net profit of RMB 2.12 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year, which was below the expected RMB 2.32 billion [1][5]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to the weak international oil and bulk cargo markets, leading to a drop in freight rates [1][5]. - The container shipping segment performed well due to tariff disruptions, resulting in a year-on-year increase in freight rates in the Asian region [1][5]. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, seasonal demand is expected to boost oil and bulk freight rates, with a potential recovery in the market [1][5]. Summary by Sections International Oil Shipping - The company's oil tanker business generated revenue of RMB 4.44 billion in 1H25, down 10.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.29 billion, a decrease of 22.8% [2]. - The decline in the international oil shipping market is primarily due to increased geopolitical uncertainties affecting production consumption and crude oil replenishment demand [2]. - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) averaged a year-on-year decrease of 21.4% in 1H25, with VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax rates down 4.6%, 11.3%, and 32.3% respectively [2]. - There is an expectation for a recovery in oil shipping rates in the second half of the year, driven by seasonal demand and replenishment needs [2]. International Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping segment reported revenue of RMB 3.70 billion in 1H25, down 6.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 420 million, a significant drop of 47.3% [3]. - The profit decline is attributed to weak macro demand, putting pressure on the global dry bulk market, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaging a year-on-year decrease of 29.7% [3]. - Despite the weak spot market rates, the company has strengthened project cooperation with key clients, securing stable long-term earnings from its VLOC fleet [3]. - There is an expectation for marginal improvement in demand and a potential stabilization of dry bulk freight rates in the second half of the year [3]. Container and LNG Shipping - The container shipping business saw a net profit of RMB 630 million in 1H25, a remarkable increase of 161.5% year-on-year, driven by significant increases in freight rates due to tariff disruptions [4]. - The company has accelerated its LNG business development, achieving a net profit of RMB 320 million in 1H25, with 23 LNG vessels in operation and 41 on order, all under long-term charter contracts [4]. - The roll-on/roll-off shipping business reported a net profit of RMB 110 million in 1H25, down 37.4% year-on-year, primarily due to increased vessel supply and declining freight rates [4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the international oil and bulk shipping sectors may have reached a bottom in 1H25, with potential recovery driven by the US interest rate cut cycle and economic recovery in China, which could boost global commodity demand [5]. - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down by 29%, 18%, and 9% respectively, to RMB 4.72 billion, RMB 5.23 billion, and RMB 5.69 billion [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Container Shipping**: The EC futures market shows a weak shock, and the spot freight rate in September is in a rapid decline channel. The tariff pressure in the second half of the year is expected to reduce the support for freight rates, and the competition among shipping companies may intensify. The recommended trading strategies are short - term bearish shock for single - side trading and rolling operation of reverse spread for 10 - 12 contracts [5][7][10]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The dry bulk freight index increased on August 22. The freight rate of Capesize ships increased, and the Far East Dry Bulk Index (FDI) also rose on August 25. The freight rate of large - scale ships is expected to recover in the short term, and the medium - sized ship market is expected to be slightly stronger in shock [17][18]. - **Oil Tanker Transportation**: The crude oil market and the refined oil market have different trends. The crude oil market is in a tight supply - demand pattern, which supports the increase of freight rates, while the refined oil market is relatively stable with weak demand. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of concentrated bookings on the Middle East route in September, and long - term attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Futures Market**: On August 26, EC2510 closed at 1318.9 points, down 2.88% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1990.2 points on Monday after the market, down 8.7% month - on - month. The final delivery settlement price of EC2508 was 2135.28 points [5]. - **Spot Market**: In September, the spot freight rate is in a rapid decline channel, and the loading rate of shipping companies has decreased. MSK's offer for Shanghai - Rotterdam in WK37 is 1900 US dollars/FEU, down 200 US dollars from last week. The freight rates of other shipping companies also show a downward trend [7]. - **Tariff Impact**: The US plans to complete the investigation of adding furniture import tariffs within 50 days. In 2024, the container volume of furniture, home furnishings and lighting imported by the US accounted for 13% of the total imports. If the tariff is implemented, it will bring cost pressure to major exporting countries such as China and Vietnam [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading is recommended to be bearish in shock, and the valuation center of the October contract is expected to be revised down. For arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct reverse spread rolling operation for the 10 - 12 contracts [10]. Industry News - The US Vice - President mentioned that the US currently imposes a 54% tariff on China and has multiple dialogues with the Chinese government to end the trade war. The US may finalize a trade agreement with South Korea. Trump claims to impose tariffs on imported furniture, and the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is considered appropriate [11][12]. - Regarding the Red Sea situation, Trump said it is difficult to deal with Netanyahu, and an outcome is expected in 2 - 3 weeks. Iran will start a new round of talks with the UK, France and Germany. The leader of Hezbollah refuses to disarm, and Israel is ready to support Lebanon in disarming Hezbollah [13][14][15]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: On August 22, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 2.69% to 1944 points. The Capesize ship freight index rose about 3.33% to 2793 points, the Panamax ship freight index rose 2.97% to 1770 points, and the Supramax ship freight index rose 1.35% to 1424 points. On August 25, the Far East Dry Bulk Index (FDI) reported 1316.81 points for the comprehensive index, up 4.7% month - on - month [17][18]. - **Spot Freight Rate**: On August 22, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.44 US dollars/ton, up 0.73% month - on - month, and the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.40 US dollars/ton, up 7.37% month - on - month. The weekly freight rate data shows that the freight rates of some routes have increased or decreased [19]. - **Shipping Data**: From August 18 to 24, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 90.8 tons month - on - month. In the fourth week of August 2025, the cumulative shipment of soybeans in Brazil was 725.78 million tons, and the cumulative shipment of corn was 496.04 million tons [20]. - **Incident Impact**: An accident occurred at the Simfer mine in Guinea, and all activities at the mine have been suspended. The accident may affect the project progress, but the project is not expected to stop for a long time [21]. Industry News - In July 2025, India's coal imports decreased, with different demands for different types of coal. The free trade agreement negotiation between Canada and the South American Common Market will restart. The Brazilian court overturned the decision of the antitrust regulatory agency to suspend the "soybean fallow agreement" [24][25]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: On August 22, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1042, up 1.26% month - on - month and 16.16% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 618, up 0.65% month - on - month and down 1.28% year - on - year [26][27]. - **Market Trend**: The crude oil market is in an upward trend, with increasing demand for VLCC and Suezmax, and a tight supply - demand pattern supports the increase of freight rates. The refined oil market is relatively stable, with weak demand and sufficient supply of some ship types, and the freight rate maintains a shock trend [27]. Industry News - India will buy oil from the most profitable places, including Russia. The continuous rebound of oil prices is due to geopolitical disturbances and supply interruption risks. The market continues to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine issue, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [28].

Core Viewpoint - The tanker sector is experiencing a strong clearing of capacity options, with high ship prices likely to suppress capacity additions in the long term, leading to a tightening supply trend. Current geopolitical instability, including sanctions and conflicts, may drive freight rates higher in the short to medium term [1]. Group 1: Freight Rate Analysis - From January to April, VLCC-TCE freight rates increased from approximately $30,000/day to around $40,000/day due to intensified U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil. Although rates fell at the end of June, they rebounded above $40,000/day in mid-August following renewed sanctions on Iran [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Framework - Supply establishes the cycle direction, while demand influences market conditions. Historical trends show that major market movements are often driven by supply shortages, with demand contributing to the upward momentum [2]. Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the average operating rate of major refineries in China was 76.25%, down 0.96 percentage points year-on-year. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries was 46.49%, down 9.13 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a decline in crude oil demand. However, there are long-term upward options for demand due to OPEC+ members' agreement to gradually release 2.2 million barrels/day, which may further drive down oil prices and stimulate transportation demand [3]. Group 4: Supply Side Analysis - As of July 2025, there were 2,337 registered crude oil tankers with a total capacity of 465 million deadweight tons. The proportion of tankers over 15 years old reached 41.82%, and those over 20 years old accounted for 19.63%. High ship prices, averaging $126 million for VLCCs, discourage new orders, and stringent environmental regulations may accelerate the clearing of older vessels, potentially leading to a situation where new capacity does not offset the clearing of older capacity [4]. Group 5: Event-Driven Factors - The U.S. has intensified sanctions on vessels involved in transporting Russian and Iranian oil, with 471 tankers sanctioned, representing 17.55% of the total fleet capacity. Historical data indicates that increased sanctions often lead to significant freight rate increases, ranging from 38% to 142%. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have historically resulted in freight rate spikes, as seen during past conflicts. Current tensions between the U.S. and Russia, as well as between the U.S. and Iran, warrant close monitoring of potential short-term impacts on tanker rates [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping sector, particularly highlighting the potential for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates to strengthen in the upcoming months [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that tanker rates have exceeded expectations during the off-season, with VLCC rates expected to perform strongly from September to December due to reduced exports from Iran and increased production in the Middle East [4]. - The report recommends specific companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and highlights the potential for consolidation in the Chinese shipping industry [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of freight volumes in rail and highway transport, suggesting steady growth in these sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - VLCC rates increased by 32% this week, reaching $45,800 per day, driven by limited supply and increased demand from the Atlantic market [4]. - The report notes that the average export volume from Iran has decreased to 1.3-1.5 million barrels per day, down from 1.7-1.9 million barrels per day in July [4]. - The Suez crude oil tanker rates rose by 15% to $59,563 per day, supported by strong demand from the West African market [4]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 4.9% to 1,944 points, primarily due to a decline in large vessel rates, while smaller vessels showed stronger performance [5]. - The report remains optimistic about the Capesize bulk carrier market in the second half of the year, citing expected increases in shipments from major miners [4]. Air Transport - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policy from the Civil Aviation Administration is likely to optimize competition in the airline industry, benefiting airline profitability in the long term [4]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, with a focus on the potential for improved earnings due to supply constraints and demand recovery [4]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates a price increase in the express delivery sector driven by the "anti-involution" policy, with expectations for sustained profitability in the e-commerce delivery segment [4]. - Companies such as Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong potential for recovery and valuation improvement [4]. Rail and Highway Transport - Data from the Ministry of Transport indicates that rail freight volume increased by 1.22% week-on-week, while highway freight traffic rose by 3.06% [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yield stocks and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index rebounded in the week from July 28th to July 31st, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.17% (the decline significantly narrowed). The increase in the demand for tanker use in the Red Sea and the decrease in the Aden Gulf region were favorable for the BDTI index. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ crude oil production increases and global economic expectations [2]. - As of July 25th, the crude oil shipment volume showed a pattern of "three decreases and one increase." The shipment volume decreased in the US by 6.26%, Saudi Arabia by 21.02%, and the UAE by 0.48%, while it increased in Russia by 12.6% [2]. - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, the total tanker traffic in the Red Sea increased, with an increase in the number of crude oil tankers and a decrease in the number of refined oil tankers. In the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic decreased slightly [7]. - As of July 26th, except for the Suez - type tankers, the port tanker capacity of other tanker types increased [9]. - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, China, India, and the Netherlands all saw a week - on - week decline in crude oil arrivals, and their import demand fell below the level of the same period in 2024, reaching the average of the past four years [30]. 3. Summary by Section BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of July 31st, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 921 points, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.17%. The freight rate increased significantly in that week from a seasonal perspective [2][3]. Tanker Voyage Distance - In the 28th week of 2025 (as of July 18th), except for the Aframax tankers whose voyage distance decreased week - on - week, the voyage distances of VLCC and Suez - type tankers increased. Specifically, the voyage distances of VLCC, Aframax, and Suez - type tankers changed by +3.2%, - 7.33%, and +13.94% week - on - week respectively. Compared with the same period last year, the Aframax tankers' voyage distance was still in a shortened state [5]. Tanker Traffic in the Red Sea and Aden Gulf - From July 26th to July 30th, the average daily tanker traffic in the Red Sea was 771 ships, an increase of 26 ships from the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers increased by 34, and the number of refined oil tankers decreased by 11. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC decreased by 5, the number of Suez - type increased by 5, and the number of Aframax increased by 7 [7]. - In the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic reached 113 ships, a decrease of 3 ships from the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers increased by 2, and the number of refined oil tankers decreased by 1. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC remained unchanged, the number of Suez - type increased by 1, and the number of Aframax decreased by 4 [7]. Tanker Capacity - As of July 26th, 2025, 9,421 tankers were dismantled, an increase of 3 week - on - week and 81 year - on - year; the number of effective ships was 18,292, an increase of 8 week - on - week and 443 year - on - year; the number of ship deliveries was 196, a decrease of 6 week - on - week and an increase of 72 year - on - year; the number of ship orders was 1,359, an increase of 3 week - on - week and 170 year - on - year; the number of ships under construction was 220, unchanged week - on - week and an increase of 85 year - on - year [9]. - As of July 26th, except for the Suez - type tankers whose port capacity decreased week - on - week, the port tanker capacity of other tanker types increased. Specifically, the number of VLCCs berthed was 2,416, an increase of 18 week - on - week; the number of Aframax berthed was 3,271, an increase of 74 week - on - week; the number of Suez - type tankers berthed was 2,409, a significant decrease of 358 week - on - week [9]. Crude Oil Shipment Data Tracking - US crude oil shipments decreased week - on - week, with the demand for VLCC use increasing week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for Aframax tankers was the weakest, below the average level of the same period in the past four years [11][15]. - Russian crude oil shipments increased week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for Suez - type tankers was extremely strong [11][19]. - Saudi crude oil exports continued to decline week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for VLCC use was extremely weak [21]. - UAE crude oil shipments decreased. Seasonally, the demand for all three tanker types was higher than the four - year average, and the demand for Aframax tankers was the strongest in that week [26]. - The total crude oil shipments of Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria increased slightly, mainly due to the week - on - week increase in the shipment volume of Kuwait and Iran [29]. Crude Oil Arrivals - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, the crude oil arrivals in China, India, and the Netherlands all decreased week - on - week. Seasonally, the crude oil import demand of the three countries fell below the level of the same period in 2024, reaching the average of the past four years [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced their rates for late July. The EC futures market is generally volatile. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping schedules and the progress of the cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East [4][6]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The rates of large - vessel markets are expected to stop falling and recover, while the rates of medium - sized vessel markets are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [26]. - **Oil Tanker Shipping**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The price of domestic refined oil may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by factors such as Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On July 14, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed significantly. The month - spread structure also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line was at 2258.04 points, up 6.35% week - on - week and down 58.43% year - on - year. The SCFIS US West line was at 1557.77 points, down 3.79% week - on - week and down 65.99% year - on - year. Different routes had different price trends [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In July, it was in a stage of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. The weekly average capacity in July, August, and September was 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively, with a slight decrease in July and August compared to the previous schedule [6]. - **Tariffs**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1. The impact on China's exports and re - export trade needs attention [4]. - **Trade Data**: In June, China's exports to the US were $381.7 billion, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant improvement in the month - on - month growth rate. Exports to ASEAN were $581.9 billion, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were $492.2 billion, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading should focus on tariffs and geopolitical dynamics, and for arbitrage, 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage rolling operations are recommended [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize vessel index, Panamax vessel index, and Supramax vessel index all showed different degrees of increase [19][20]. - **Spot Rates**: On July 11, the spot rates of various routes increased to varying degrees, such as the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route and the Australia - Qingdao coal route [22]. - **Shipping Data**: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 29.871 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.588 million tons, an increase of 938,000 tons [23]. - **Import and Export Data**: In June, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal and grain imports decreased month - on - month. The overall situation in the first half of the year showed an increase in steel exports and an increase in soybean imports [24]. - **Market Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased vessel inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax vessel market's rates continued to rise due to strong demand for coal and grain transportation and tight market capacity [26]. Oil Tanker Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and down 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year [29][30]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. The domestic refined oil price may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. Industry News - **Tariff News**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, and other countries starting from August 1. The EU has extended the suspension period of counter - measures against US tariffs until early August [4][10][11]. - **Shipping Policy**: Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by Guinean ships [27]. - **Oil Market News**: Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia may lead to more sanctions, which could affect the oil market. The OPEC + has reached an over - expected production increase agreement, and the oil price is affected by multiple factors [31][32].