兴业证券发布研报称，油轮板块具有较强烈的运力出清期权，且船价高企将长期压制运力增补，供给端 具有紧缩趋势;当前国际局势不稳定，制裁、冲突等事件均可能带来运价的中短期冲高。供给奠定周期 方向，需求影响行情成色，建议投资者重点关注油轮供给端短期、长期利好期权，把握供给出清时机， 兼顾需求复苏态势。建议关注原油航运标的：招商轮船（601872）(601872.SH)、中远海能（600026） (01138)。 2025年上半年中国全国主力炼厂开工率平均为76.25%，同比下滑0.96个百分点;山东地方炼厂开工率平 均为46.49%，同比下滑9.13个百分点，导致原油需求同步走低。然而，需求面存在长期向上期权：2025 年3月以来，八个OPEC+成员国达成原油增产协议，决定分阶段释放220万桶/天的产量，目前正在持续 增产中，有望进一步驱动原油价格下行，释放有效需求;此外，美国战略原油库存处于历史低位，油价 下跌或触发其启动大规模补库，进一步带动原油运输需求回暖。 供给侧：老旧船舶占比高，船价高企压制新船供给，环保要求趋严倒逼运力出清 2025年7月末，全球登记在册原油油轮共2337艘，运力共计4.65亿载重吨;目前 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 刘衣云 A0230524100007 liuyy@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 (8621)23297818× fancx@swsres ...

南华油品发运数据周报 ——原油发运量开始回暖，当周BDTI运价指数环比由跌转涨 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月1日 一、摘要 当周（7月28日~7月31日）BDTI原油运价指数收于921点，环比上涨4.81%（由跌转涨），同比下跌8.17% （跌幅大幅缩窄）。 截至7月25日当周，发运量"三降一增"。美国降6.26%、俄罗斯增12.6%、沙特降21.02%；阿联酋降 0.48%。 截至7月30日，区域船舶通行量上，红海区域原油船舶增加、亚丁湾区域原油船舶减少，对油轮用船需求增 加，利多BDTI运价指数。 重要事件关注：OPEC+原油增产、全球经济预期 二、BDTI原油运价指数走势 截至2025年7月31日，BDTI原油运价指数收于921点，环比上涨4.81%，同比下跌8.17%。 从季节性走势看，当周运价明显上涨。 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI） 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI） 3000 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI）季节性 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 3000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced their rates for late July. The EC futures market is generally volatile. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping schedules and the progress of the cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East [4][6]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The rates of large - vessel markets are expected to stop falling and recover, while the rates of medium - sized vessel markets are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [26]. - **Oil Tanker Shipping**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The price of domestic refined oil may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by factors such as Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On July 14, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed significantly. The month - spread structure also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line was at 2258.04 points, up 6.35% week - on - week and down 58.43% year - on - year. The SCFIS US West line was at 1557.77 points, down 3.79% week - on - week and down 65.99% year - on - year. Different routes had different price trends [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In July, it was in a stage of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. The weekly average capacity in July, August, and September was 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively, with a slight decrease in July and August compared to the previous schedule [6]. - **Tariffs**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1. The impact on China's exports and re - export trade needs attention [4]. - **Trade Data**: In June, China's exports to the US were $381.7 billion, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant improvement in the month - on - month growth rate. Exports to ASEAN were $581.9 billion, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were $492.2 billion, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading should focus on tariffs and geopolitical dynamics, and for arbitrage, 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage rolling operations are recommended [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize vessel index, Panamax vessel index, and Supramax vessel index all showed different degrees of increase [19][20]. - **Spot Rates**: On July 11, the spot rates of various routes increased to varying degrees, such as the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route and the Australia - Qingdao coal route [22]. - **Shipping Data**: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 29.871 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.588 million tons, an increase of 938,000 tons [23]. - **Import and Export Data**: In June, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal and grain imports decreased month - on - month. The overall situation in the first half of the year showed an increase in steel exports and an increase in soybean imports [24]. - **Market Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased vessel inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax vessel market's rates continued to rise due to strong demand for coal and grain transportation and tight market capacity [26]. Oil Tanker Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and down 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year [29][30]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. The domestic refined oil price may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. Industry News - **Tariff News**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, and other countries starting from August 1. The EU has extended the suspension period of counter - measures against US tariffs until early August [4][10][11]. - **Shipping Policy**: Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by Guinean ships [27]. - **Oil Market News**: Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia may lead to more sanctions, which could affect the oil market. The OPEC + has reached an over - expected production increase agreement, and the oil price is affected by multiple factors [31][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market's EC盘面 maintains an overall volatile trend, with spot freight rates remaining relatively firm. The market is still speculating on the timing of the freight rate peak and the subsequent decline rate. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and geopolitical dynamics [4][5]. - The dry - bulk shipping market shows that large - vessel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, while the medium - vessel market is expected to be strongly volatile. The tense situation in the Red Sea may increase shipping costs [15][19]. - In the tanker shipping market, short - term freight rate increases are mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums. The impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs further attention [23]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On July 10, EC2508 closed at 2022.5 points, up 0.5% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 2258.04 points on July 10, up 6.3% month - on - month, and the SCFI European line reported $2101/TEU on July 4, up 3.5% month - on - month [2][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Mainstream shipping companies' quotes are differentiated. The demand side is in the traditional peak season from July to August, but the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs attention. The supply side shows that the weekly average capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is 284,900/289,500/298,700 TEU respectively, and the capacity in August and September has increased slightly compared to the previous schedule. Trump extended the tariff exemption period to August 1 and announced new tariffs on multiple countries [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be volatile, focusing on tariffs and geopolitical dynamics. For arbitrage, conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6]. Industry News - Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil and will soon announce tariffs on semiconductors. He also issued trade letters to multiple countries on the 9th, announcing tariff rates on various countries' products [8]. - The EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US before August 1. The EU is ready to take counter - measures, with the first phase to take effect on July 14 [9]. - HD Korea Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering received contracts for 4 container ships worth approximately $610 million, and Navios Maritime Partners will sign a series of new container shipbuilding orders with HJ Shipbuilding worth about $460 million [9]. - Regarding the Red Sea situation, Israel and Hamas are in cease - fire negotiations, and Trump said there is a high possibility of resolving the Gaza issue this week [10][11]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1423 points, down 0.6%, the Capesize Index (BCI) fell 5.5% to 1654 points, the Panamax Index (BPI) rose 3.3% to 1621 points, and the Handysize Index (BSI) rose 2.3% to 1151 points [14][15]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: On July 9, the freight rate for the Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI - C3) route was $18.43/ton, down 0.11% month - on - month, and the West Australia - Qingdao (BCI - C5) route was $7.32/ton, down 2.66% month - on - month. As of July 4, the weekly freight rates for some routes showed different changes [15][16]. - **Shipping Data**: From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 362,700 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, Brazil shipped 13.4203 million tons of soybeans in 20 working days, compared with 13.9596 million tons in July last year [17]. - **News**: The situation in the Red Sea is tense, with two bulk carriers attacked and sunk, which may increase the Red Sea detour ratio and shipping costs. Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01 - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils from July 6, 2025 [17][18]. Industry News - In June 2025, Vietnam's coal imports were 6.4568 million tons, up 1.44% year - on - year and down 10.38% month - on - month. From January to June, the cumulative coal imports were 38.0258 million tons, up 13.75% year - on - year [20]. - Trump issued tariff letters to 8 countries on July 9, with tariff rates ranging from 20% to 50% [20]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Rates**: On July 9, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 932, down 0.32% month - on - month and 12.41% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 537, up 0.56% month - on - month and down 36.75% year - on - year. The BDTI has declined recently, and the upward driving force of freight rates mainly comes from geopolitical conflict premiums [22][23]. Industry News - As of the week of July 9, Singapore's middle distillate inventory decreased by 149,000 barrels, light distillate inventory decreased by 368,000 barrels, and fuel oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels [24]. - In early July, the shipping prices of gasoline and diesel were supported but not significantly boosted. The new shipping orders of gasoline and diesel decreased or remained flat. The prices of 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and diesel showed a downward trend [24]. - OPEC restricted five major news agencies from participating in the oil industry conference, raising concerns about the transparency of the global energy market [24][25].

Q2 2020 Highlights - Q3 2020至今，VLCC 48%的租船业务以大约每天60300美元的价格成交[8] - Q3 2020至今，Suezmax 48%的租船业务以大约每天36500美元的价格成交[8] - Q2 2020 VLCC 平均即期汇率（spot rate）为每天81500美元，而2019年同期为每天23250美元[8] - Q2 2020 VLCC 平均期租汇率（time charter rate）为每天39250美元，而2019年同期为每天27250美元[8] - Q2 2020 Suezmax 平均即期汇率为每天60750美元，而2019年同期为每天17250美元[8] - Q2 2020 Suezmax 平均期租汇率为每天29750美元，而2019年同期为每天30500美元[8] - 公司将季度净收入的80%返还给股东，包括通过股票回购1亿美元和现金分红9600万美元[11] Financial Performance - Q2 2020 收入为434691000美元[14] - Q2 2020 净利润为259631000美元[14] - 截至2020年6月，公司拥有11亿美元的可用流动资金，包括现金和循环信贷[20] Market Outlook - VLCC 船队中有20%的船只船龄超过15年，在未来7个季度面临检验[26] - 截至2022年第一季度末，有147艘船龄超过15年的VLCC需要进行特殊检验[27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The container shipping market is in a state of game regarding the peak season height and the timing of the peak. The spot freight rate is gradually rising, but the long - term height is affected by factors such as tariff trade wars. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may lead to an increase in costs and affect the market [4][6]. - The dry bulk shipping market is generally in a downward trend recently. The freight rate of Capesize ships is expected to decline in the short term, while the freight rate of medium - sized ships is expected to fluctuate. The conflict in the Middle East may affect the freight rate in the region [15][21]. - The oil tanker transportation market has seen a rise in sentiment due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical premiums, and the demand side is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period [25]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Data - **Futures Disk**: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of different EC contracts showed different trends. For example, EC2508 closed at 1875 points, down 0.79% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed. The monthly spread structure of different contract combinations also had corresponding price changes [2]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The weekly container freight rates of different routes showed different trends. For example, the SCFIS European line was 1937.14 points, up 14.11% week - on - week, while the SCFIS US West line was 2083.46 points, down 28.37% week - on - week [2]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **Analysis**: The market is in a game about the peak season height and timing. The spot freight rate is rising with the implementation of some price increases. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may lead to an increase in costs such as insurance premiums [4][5][6]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and the escalation of geopolitics may boost sentiment. For arbitrage, hold the 6 - 8 reverse spread and conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Data - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) fell 3.5% to 1689 points on June 20, with a weekly decline of 11%. The Capesize ship freight index (BCI) and the Panamax ship freight index (BPI) also declined, while the Supramax and Handysize ship freight indices rose [15][17]. - **Shipping Data**: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3506.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.0 million tons. The expected soybean export volume in Brazil in June is 1437 million tons [16][18]. Market Analysis - The freight rate of Capesize ships is expected to decline in the short term due to the end of the Australian mining companies' fiscal year impulse. The freight rate of medium - sized ships is expected to fluctuate. The conflict in the Middle East may affect the regional freight rate [21]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Data - **Freight Index**: On June 20, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1054, up 1.35% week - on - week and down 10.75% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 708, down 0.42% week - on - week and down 11.06% year - on - year [24][25]. - **Port Congestion**: The number of global crude oil tanker port calls and product tanker port calls showed little change compared with the previous period [24]. Market Analysis - The short - term increase in freight rates is mainly driven by geopolitical premiums, and the demand side is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the heightened tensions in the Middle East following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, particularly focusing on the implications for maritime shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Group 1: Impact on Shipping - Two supertankers, "Coswisdom Lake" and "South Loyalty," turned back near the Strait of Hormuz, indicating increased caution among shipping companies in response to the U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities [1] - The global shipping industry is on high alert regarding the potential impact on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with many vessels opting to wait outside the strait rather than risk entering [2][3] - The shipping market's benchmark freight rates had already risen by nearly 90% prior to the U.S. strikes, and freight derivatives showed signs of a spike following the events [4] Group 2: Regional Tensions - Following the U.S. airstrikes, there is a possibility that Iran may attempt to disrupt commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which could include attacks on merchant vessels [1] - The Iranian parliament supports the idea of closing the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision rests with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council [1] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has already led to a decrease in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as shipping companies seek to avoid the area [2]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, are reshaping the global shipping landscape, with a low probability of a complete closure of the strait despite Iranian threats [1][2]. Shipping Market Impact - The oil tanker shipping sector is expected to benefit significantly from the reduction in "dark fleet" capacity, while container shipping will be relatively less affected [1][2]. - The Strait of Hormuz is strategically important for energy transport, with 11% of global maritime trade passing through it, including 34% of maritime oil exports and 30% of liquefied petroleum gas exports [1][2]. Scenarios for Strait Closure - Scenario 1: Military conflict may not disrupt oil flow, and the tanker market will remain stable during the off-peak season in Q2 2025 [2]. - Scenario 2: A decline in Iranian exports could reduce "dark fleet" transport volumes, increasing demand for legitimate tankers [2]. - Scenario 3: Broader risks to oil exports in the Gulf region could create uncertainty in tanker shipping, potentially leading to longer transport distances from the Atlantic to Asia [2]. Comparison with Red Sea Route - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a limited impact on container shipping compared to the disruption of the Red Sea route, which reduced global effective capacity by about 10% in H1 2024 [2]. - Only 3% of global container trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making its closure less impactful on global container shipping capacity [2].

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices - Israel's airstrike on Iran has escalated geopolitical tensions, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, which briefly surpassed $3,400 per ounce [1] - International oil prices surged, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices both rising over 7% in response to the conflict [1] - Iran, as the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, controls the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for nearly 40% of global oil exports; any disruption in this area could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices [2][4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Despite the airstrike, Iran's oil facilities remain operational, but market concerns about ongoing geopolitical tensions persist [2] - Analysts predict that the combination of escalating tensions, seasonal demand, and other factors will support higher oil prices in the short term [2] - Historical data shows that conflicts have previously led to significant spikes in oil prices and shipping costs, indicating potential for similar outcomes in the current situation [5] Group 3: Shipping and Transportation Impacts - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to oil tanker rates increasing significantly, similar to past conflicts where shipping costs surged due to heightened risks [5][6] - The shipping industry may see a structural improvement in oil tanker demand due to the geopolitical situation, although the probability of a complete blockade is considered low [6] - The impact of the conflict on container shipping rates is being assessed, with concerns about the safety of vessels in the region, particularly those associated with Israel [6]