招商轮船（601872）(601872.SH)发布公告，公司预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为60 亿元至66亿元，同比增长17%至29%。 公司2025年度业绩预计出现增长的主要原因为：1、油轮船队抓住市场复苏机遇，第四季度经营利润同 比预计增加200-230%。2、受益于多种因素，报告期预计实现的非经常性收益大幅增长，主要包括处置 老旧船舶实现良好收益、收购安通股份股票三季度实现公允价值变动收益(四季度开始按权益法核算) 等;3、干散货船队、滚装船队预计报告期经营利润阶段性有所下滑。 ...

1月8日， 港股一度涨超5%，截至发稿，涨3.13%，报9.89港元，成交额1.71亿港元。 摩根士丹利近期指出，认为中远海能股价在未来30天内将出现绝对上涨。因为该股近期已经历了回调，使得其短期估值更具吸引力。大摩看到，在地缘政治 动态下，对合法油轮的需求正在上升。 编辑/KOKO 消息面上，据报道，美国表示，已扣押一艘俄罗斯籍、与委内瑞拉有关联的油轮，这是特朗普试图通过强势手段主导美洲能源流向、并迫使委内瑞拉政府倒 向美国阵营的一部分行动。白宫还称，特朗普正在讨论获取格陵兰岛的多种方案，包括不排除动用军事力量。 ...

摩根士丹利近期指出，认为中远海能股价在未来30天内将出现绝对上涨。因为该股近期已经历了回调， 使得其短期估值更具吸引力。大摩看到，在地缘政治动态下，对合法油轮的需求正在上升。 中远海能（600026）(01138)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.63%，报10.13港元，成交额1.25亿港元。 消息面上，据报道，美国表示，已扣押一艘俄罗斯籍、与委内瑞拉有关联的油轮，这是特朗普试图通过 强势手段主导美洲能源流向、并迫使委内瑞拉政府倒向美国阵营的一部分行动。白宫还称，特朗普正在 讨论获取格陵兰岛的多种方案，包括不排除动用军事力量。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.41%，报9.98港元，成交额3264.5万港 元。 消息面上，据第一财经报道，雪佛龙预订的一小批船只正准备驶向委内瑞拉。在委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被 美国军队俘虏之后，该公司成为了该国石油的唯一出口商。数据显示，这家美国石油巨头租用的至少11 艘油轮计划于本月抵达委内瑞拉政府控制的何塞港和巴霍格兰德港。该数据为初步统计，与去年12月的 9艘船只数量相比有所增加，也是自10月以来的最高值，当时有12艘油轮在此装载货物。 大摩发布研报称，认为中远海能股价在未来30天内将出现绝对上涨，因为该股近期已经历了回调，使得 其短期估值更具吸引力。大摩指出，在地缘政治动态下，对合法油轮的需求正在上升，估计这一情景发 生的概率约为70%至80%或"极有可能"。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，中远海能(01138)股价在未来30天内将出现绝对上涨。因为 该股近期已经历了回调，使得其短期估值更具吸引力。大摩看到，在地缘政治动态下，对合法油轮的需 求正在上升。该行估计，这一情景发生的概率约为70%至80%或"极有可能"。该行予中远海能"增持"评 级及目标价13.2港元。 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，中远海能（600026）(01138)股价在未来30天内将出现绝对上涨。因为该股近 期已经历了回调，使得其短期估值更具吸引力。大摩看到，在地缘政治动态下，对合法油轮的需求正在 上升。该行估计，这一情景发生的概率约为70%至80%或"极有可能"。该行予中远海能"增持"评级及目 标价13.2港元。 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the transition of China's outbound strategy from "product export" to "capital export," focusing on investments in overseas resource sectors such as mining and oil and gas, which will reshape global trade patterns [7][20][25] - The report recommends prioritizing investments in three sub-sectors of the shipping industry: dry bulk shipping, which is approaching a supply-demand inflection point; the tanker sector, which is entering a strong earnings period; and regional container shipping with favorable supply-demand structures [4][7][20] Group 2 - In the dry bulk shipping sector, iron ore is the largest single commodity, accounting for 27% of shipping volume in 2024. The West African Simandou iron ore project, with a projected annual capacity of 120 million tons by 2028, is expected to significantly alter China's iron ore import landscape and drive a 2.2% increase in global dry bulk shipping demand [8][44][48] - The tanker sector is experiencing a recovery as previous demand constraints are lifted, with a projected fleet growth of only 0.5% for VLCCs in 2026, indicating a tight supply environment. Factors such as increased oil production from South America and stricter sanctions on Russia are expected to boost demand [9][70] - The container shipping industry is entering a pressure testing phase due to the end of export rush effects from trade tensions and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. However, there are still structural growth opportunities in regional markets, particularly in Asia and emerging markets [10][70] Group 3 - The report provides forecasts for the shipping industry, predicting a demand growth rate of 3.5% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 for dry bulk shipping, while supply growth is expected to be 3.4% and 2.4% respectively, indicating a tightening market [8][62] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Simandou project and potential post-war reconstruction in Ukraine as key drivers for increased dry bulk shipping demand, with estimates suggesting an additional 1.3% demand growth from Ukraine's reconstruction efforts [52][54] - The report identifies key investment targets, including Haitong Development and China Merchants Energy, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the shipping market [62][70]

需求端，OPEC+持续增产压制油价，带来了原油炼油、补库需求的强劲回升，7月以来中国主营、地方 炼厂开工率均回到较高位置，港口原油库存指数亦回到三年来的高位。需求强劲增长下，2025年8月以 来油轮运价强势回升，10月末VLCC-TCE已涨至近10万美元/天，创造了2020H2以来的新高。 供给端，目前油轮船队平均船龄达到14.07年，20年以上老船占比达到20.57%，而在手订单仅达到现有 船队运力的13.29%，并不足以应对老船更新需求;在美国制裁不断加码与环保要求持续提升下，老旧运 力出清将被迫加速，新增运力或不抵出清运力。预计原油油轮船队规模2026、2027年分别达到4.68亿载 重吨、4.82亿载重吨。 OPEC+增产大逻辑未变，运力供给受限，美国制裁愈演愈烈下，继续看好2026油轮运价高度持续性。 干散货航运板块：具有多重利好期权，关注几内亚西芒杜铁矿发运形势 需求端，几内亚铝土矿出口持续增长，西芒杜铁矿亦已于2025年11月投产，未来数年产能将不断爬坡上 行，有望带来运距增长;此外，俄乌、巴以停火若得以落实，战后重建亦将提振干散货航运需求。 智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，2026年有 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Transportation Industry**: The report focuses on the transportation sector, particularly the aviation and shipping industries, with a positive outlook for 2026 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Aviation Industry - **Optimistic Outlook**: The aviation sector is expected to perform well in 2026, with passenger load factors reaching historical highs (e.g., 87% for major airlines like China Southern and China Eastern, and over 90% for Spring Airlines) [3][4]. - **Profit Potential**: A 10% increase in ticket prices for airlines with revenues around 100 billion can lead to a profit increase of approximately 10 billion [1][3]. - **Supply Chain Constraints**: The global aircraft supply chain is anticipated to remain tight due to limited participants in the manufacturing market and challenges in scaling production [4]. - **Demand Drivers**: Increased consumer policies and travel demand are expected to significantly boost service consumption, particularly in cultural and tourism sectors [4]. Shipping Industry - **Market Segments to Watch**: Focus on cruise, bulk cargo, and container shipping markets, with cruise rates exceeding $100,000 per day, driven by oil production cycles and sanctions [5][6]. - **Capacity Constraints**: The shipping industry faces limited capacity growth due to low order backlogs since 2022, leading to a strong growth outlook [5][6]. - **Oil Tanker Market**: High percentage of aging vessels (20 years or older) necessitates increased scrapping, with every $10,000 rise in rates potentially adding over 1 billion in profits for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy [8]. - **Dry Bulk Market**: The Simandou iron ore project is expected to significantly increase transportation demand, with production projected to reach 20 million tons by 2026 and 80 million tons by 2028 [8]. Dividend Assets - **Return Expectations**: Dividend assets are projected to revert to mean returns around 10% in 2026, driven by 5% earnings growth and a 4-5% dividend yield [9][10]. - **Highway Sector Stability**: The highway sector is expected to maintain stable operations, with dividend yields projected between 4.5-5% for companies like Sichuan Chengyu and Shandong Highway, and potentially over 6% for Hong Kong-listed firms [10]. Port Sector - **Strategic Importance**: Ports are highlighted as strategic global assets, with companies like China Merchants Port showing upward momentum due to their current undervaluation [11]. Express Delivery Industry - **Market Adjustments**: The express delivery sector, particularly the Tongda system, is positioned for growth following adjustments and the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to enhance industry quality and profitability [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: Key companies to watch include major airlines (Air China, China Eastern, China Southern), and shipping firms like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy, as well as express delivery leaders like YTO Express and ZTO Express [6][12]. - **Overall Investment Focus**: The report emphasizes the importance of sectors with upward performance potential, such as aviation, shipping, and express delivery, alongside dividend assets that are expected to recover in the economic recovery context [13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2024, the company reported a profit of $40.3 million, or $0.18 per share, with an adjusted profit of $42.5 million, or $0.19 per share, reflecting a decrease of $37.8 million compared to the previous quarter due to lower time charter earnings [4][5] - Time charter earnings fell from $283 million in the previous quarter to $248 million in Q3 2024 [4] - Operating expenses increased by $3.1 million from the previous quarter, attributed to a decrease in supply rates and costs related to ship management changes [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved daily rates of $34,300 for VLCCs, $35,100 for Suezmax, and $31,400 for LR2/Aframax fleets in Q3 2024 [3] - For Q4 2024, 75% of VLCC days are booked at $83,300 per day, 75% of Suezmax days at $60,600, and 51% of LR2/Aframax days at $42,200 [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil in transit has reached record highs, with export volumes growing, particularly from the Americas and the Atlantic Basin [10] - Year-on-year, Middle Eastern producers' exports increased by 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day in October [10] - The company noted logistical challenges in trading sanctioned export oil, particularly affecting Lukoil and Rosneft [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is optimistic about the tanker market, citing a return to a VLCC-centric trade pattern driven by strong export numbers from Brazil, Guyana, and Canada [12][20] - The order book for tankers is increasing, but the company believes that effective fleet growth will remain muted due to the aging fleet and limited new builds [18][20] - The company aims to focus on VLCCs, which have shown better economic returns compared to other classes [55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed excitement about the current market developments and the potential for sustained high rates due to limited fleet growth and strong demand for compliant oil [20] - The company anticipates a prolonged period of tightness in the shipping market, with firm refining margins and high utilization rates [20] - Management acknowledged the volatility of the market but noted that key fundamentals are supportive of continued strength [66] Other Important Information - The company has a strong liquidity position with $819 million in cash and cash equivalents and no meaningful debt maturities until 2030 [6] - The average cash-based breakeven rates for the next 12 months are estimated at approximately $26,000 for VLCCs, $23,300 for Suezmax, and $23,600 for LR2 tankers [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the company looking to deleverage the balance sheet while maintaining dividends? - Management indicated that they are not particularly comfortable with low loan-to-value ratios and have been conservative in their financial analysis, focusing on cash generation rather than actively reducing debt [24][25] Question: How do older ships become less efficient without being scrapped? - Management explained that older ships face high insurance costs and limited trading options, making them less efficient in the compliant oil market, which could lead to a gradual reduction in their effective fleet presence without actual scrapping [28][29] Question: What is the outlook for the dark fleet and its impact on the market? - Management noted an increase in vessels sitting idle and discussed potential solutions for recycling sanctioned vessels, indicating that the dark fleet's dynamics are complex and evolving [36][37] Question: How does the current market environment affect vessel demand? - Management highlighted that while there is currently no contango, modest contango could support trade lanes and enhance vessel demand, particularly as oil prices remain firm [41][42] Question: What is the company's view on floating storage demand? - Management clarified that current floating storage is more related to logistics and weather rather than commercial viability, contrasting it with the high demand seen during COVID [61][62] Question: How does the company view Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025? - Management expressed optimism for Q1 2026, citing strong fundamentals and a tight physical shipping market, although they acknowledged the inherent volatility of the market [66]