大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 10 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一部分 | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 2,022.5 | 10.0 | 0.50% | 34,566.0 | 36.10% | 30,945.0 | -1.29% | | EC2510 | 1,401.1 | 11.1 | 0.80% | 13,584.0 | 32.01% | 29,957.0 | 1.06% | | EC2512 | 1,556.4 | 2.7 | 0.17% | 1,644.0 | -21.15% | 6,032.0 | -1.08% | | EC2602 | 1,365.7 | 12.3 ...

Financial Performance Highlights - In Q4 2019, the average spot rate for VLCCs in the TI pool was $61,700 per day, while the average time charter rate was $35,700 per day[8] - For Suezmax vessels, the average spot rate in Q4 2019 was $41,800 per day, and the average time charter rate was $29,300 per day[8] - The company's revenue for Q4 2019 was $355.154 million, compared to $236.107 million in Q4 2018[12] - Full year 2019 revenue reached $932.377 million, a significant increase from $600.024 million in 2018[12] - Net profit for Q4 2019 was $160.801 million, a substantial improvement from $279 in Q4 2018[12] - Full year 2019 net profit was $118.868 million, compared to a loss of $110.070 million in 2018[12] Q1 2020 Outlook - For Q1 2020, approximately 60% of VLCC days have been fixed at around $89,200 per day[11] - For Q1 2020, approximately 51% of Suezmax days have been fixed at around $57,500 per day[11] Balance Sheet & Leverage - The company's leverage, based on book value, is at 44%[14] - Cash reserves stand at $297 million as of December 2019, compared to $173 million in December 2018[13] Market Dynamics & IMO 2020 - The company anticipates constructive crude tanker market fundamentals for 2020[11] - The company notes that the reduction of fuel spreads and built-in protection mechanisms[16]

Q2 2020 Highlights - Q3 2020至今，VLCC 48%的租船业务以大约每天60300美元的价格成交[8] - Q3 2020至今，Suezmax 48%的租船业务以大约每天36500美元的价格成交[8] - Q2 2020 VLCC 平均即期汇率（spot rate）为每天81500美元，而2019年同期为每天23250美元[8] - Q2 2020 VLCC 平均期租汇率（time charter rate）为每天39250美元，而2019年同期为每天27250美元[8] - Q2 2020 Suezmax 平均即期汇率为每天60750美元，而2019年同期为每天17250美元[8] - Q2 2020 Suezmax 平均期租汇率为每天29750美元，而2019年同期为每天30500美元[8] - 公司将季度净收入的80%返还给股东，包括通过股票回购1亿美元和现金分红9600万美元[11] Financial Performance - Q2 2020 收入为434691000美元[14] - Q2 2020 净利润为259631000美元[14] - 截至2020年6月，公司拥有11亿美元的可用流动资金，包括现金和循环信贷[20] Market Outlook - VLCC 船队中有20%的船只船龄超过15年，在未来7个季度面临检验[26] - 截至2022年第一季度末，有147艘船龄超过15年的VLCC需要进行特殊检验[27]

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 06 月 23 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一部分 | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2506 | 1,883.0 | -8.0 | -0.42% | 491.0 | -22.68% | 3,361.0 | -4.87% | | EC2508 | 1,875.0 | -15.0 | -0.79% | 70,521.0 | 2.29% | 47,053.0 | 2.36% | | EC2510 | 1,370.0 | 10.0 | 0.74% | 15,474.0 | 19.97% | 31,514.0 | 5.80% | | EC2512 | 1,530.1 | -9.9 ...

据媒体报道，在美国空袭伊朗后， 两艘载油量可达约200万桶的超级油轮在霍尔木兹海峡前 紧急掉头 。 自6月13日以色列突然袭击伊朗以来，波斯湾船只的电子设备和信号越来越多地受到干扰。不 过，上述两艘超级油轮的抵达，以及随后的掉头，具有正常油轮航行活动的特征，并未受到电 子信号干扰的影响。 多艘油轮选择在霍尔木兹海峡前折返表明，在美国袭击伊朗后，全球航运业对于这一水道可能 受到的影响保持高度警惕。鉴于紧张局势加剧，如果船舶预计抵达装货港后需要等待，它们可 能更愿意停泊在霍尔木兹海峡外等待。 在美国袭击伊朗之前，伊以冲突升级已经导致船只开始避开霍尔木兹海峡。全球最大船东组织 波罗的海国际航运公会（BIMCO）上周就表示，伊以大规模冲突令整个航运行业感到不安， 目前已经有不少船只选择避开霍尔木兹海峡，通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只数量正在下降。 眼下，油轮船东和贸易商正密切关注中东局势升级对霍尔木兹海峡通行量的进一步影响。 周日早些时候，希腊航运部在一份发给船东的通告中表示，计划穿越波斯湾这一狭窄海域的船 舶应 "重新评估霍尔木兹海峡的航行"，直至局势恢复正常。如果船舶决定通过霍尔木兹海 峡，船东应采取最高级别的安全措施， ...

霍尔木兹海峡是否会被完全关闭？中东地缘政治紧张局势的升级正在重塑全球航运格局。 情景 2：伊朗出口下降，这将导致 "黑暗船队" 运输量减少，通过增加对合法油轮的需求来 支撑油轮基本面。 情景 3：更广泛海湾地区的石油出口面临风险，这种情况可能导致油轮航运的不确定性。部 分需求可能由大西洋地区的出口满足，且运往亚洲的运输距离更长，但中东原油出口的潜在 减少也可能拖累油轮需求。 在航运影响方面，摩根士丹利明确表示，霍尔木兹海峡潜在封锁风险对油轮运输板块构成显著利好（因 "黑暗船队"运输量减少），而集装箱航运业则面临相对有限的影响。即使霍尔木兹海峡完全封锁，其对 集装箱航运的潜在影响也无法与红海航线中断相提并论。 分析师表示，红海航线中断在2024年上半年通过削减约10%的全球有效运力，引发了现货市场的强劲反 弹。相比之下，仅有3%的全球集装箱贸易通过霍尔木兹海峡，其封锁对全球集装箱运力的影响将极为 有限。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在6月16日的报告中表示，尽管伊朗威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡，但海峡完 全关闭仍属小概率事件。分析师认为，这一地缘政治紧张局势正在重塑航运市场格局。油轮航运板块将 从"黑暗船队"运力减少中 ...

每经记者｜张韵 每经编辑｜文多 6月13日，以色列对伊朗发动空袭，多名伊朗军事指挥官和核科学家遇袭身亡。 在避险情绪升温的背景下，伦敦现货金价大幅拉升，一度突破3400美元/盎司关口。中东局势骤然升级 令国际油价再度冲高，WTI纽约原油期货、布伦特原油价格日内双双涨超7%。 金联创原油分析师韩正己在13日向《每日经济新闻》记者表示，伊朗是石油输出国组织（OPEC）中的 第三大产油国，还掌控着中东最重要的石油通道——霍尔木兹海峡。该海峡承担着全球近40%的石油出 口供应，一旦伊以冲突造成该海峡封闭，势必在短时间内大举推高原油价格。 "此次以色列的袭击对伊朗的伤害，比去年伊朗大使馆遇袭时更严重、更直接。"韩正己认为，中东紧张 局势升级、中美经贸磋商达成措施框架、市场进入夏季需求旺季等多重因素将对油价起到支撑作用。受 此影响，短期内国际原油价格或有继续震荡走高的空间。 谈起伊以局势升温这一黑天鹅事件对原油市场的影响，海通期货研究所航运组负责人雷悦结合原油月差 表现分析说，截至6月13日中午收盘，WTI原油月差暴力反弹至7.2美元，其中近月合约大幅上行暗含了 图片来源：视觉中国-VCG111553620515 与此同 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenues on a TCE basis of $79.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $56.4 million. Net income was reported at $44.1 million, equating to $0.27 per share. After adjusting for a $19.8 million gain on the sale of a vessel, the net profit for the quarter was $24.3 million, or $0.15 per share [6][7][10] - The average TCE for vessels in the spot market was $36,300 per day, while vessels on time charters earned $42,700 per day, resulting in a combined average TCE of $38,200 per day for the quarter [6][10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $277 million, consisting of $80.5 million in cash and $196.2 million available under revolving credit facilities. Financial leverage was reported at 16.9% based on market values for the ships [7][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold the DHT Scandinavia for $43.4 million, recording a capital gain of $19.8 million during the quarter. The proceeds will be allocated to general corporate purposes, including investments in vessels and share buybacks [10][17] - Two time charter contracts were entered into: DHT China at $40,000 per day for one year and DHT Tiger at $52,500 per day for one year [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects to have 780 time charter days covered for Q2 2025 at $42,200 per day, an improvement compared to the prior quarter. The current spot market is strong, with an estimated spot P&L breakeven of $17,500 per day for Q2 [14][15] - The VLCC fleet is projected to shrink as demand for services grows, with an estimated 441 VLCCs older than 15 years by the end of 2026 [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to fine-tune its fleet profile based on customer feedback and market conditions, focusing on investing in ships rather than share buybacks or further strengthening the balance sheet [29] - The company plans to expand its fleet with four new ships in the first half of 2026, which will provide additional earnings days [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the market, noting that OPEC's strategy could lead to a robust summer market, which is atypical for the season [55] - The company believes that both scenarios regarding Iranian sanctions could positively impact the VLCC business, whether sanctions are lifted or maintained [60][61] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, marking the 61st consecutive quarterly cash dividend [12] - The company acquired the remaining shares in Goodwood Ship Management for $6.1 million, fully integrating it into DHT's operations [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Decision on vessel sales and cash allocation priorities - Management indicated that the decision to sell older ships was based on market conditions and customer preferences. The allocation of cash for corporate purposes, investments, share buybacks, and debt prepayment is not in a specific order but depends on market opportunities [27][29] Question: Appetite for extended contracts and profit-sharing structures - Management expressed excitement about the long-term time charter contract with DHT Appaloosa, indicating a potential shift towards more extended contracts and profit-sharing arrangements [33][35] Question: Impact of OPEC's production increase on the market - Management noted that while it is early to predict the exact impact of OPEC's production increases, they expect to see more cargo in the market, which could positively affect VLCC demand [39][40] Question: Fuel spreads and macroeconomic impacts - Management discussed the current state of fuel spreads and indicated that while the market is dynamic, the relationship between demand for different fuel types could influence spreads [44][46] Question: Future of the VLCC market with potential Iranian oil re-entry - Management outlined two scenarios regarding Iranian oil sanctions, both of which could be positive for the VLCC market, depending on whether sanctions are lifted or maintained [60][61]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] "五一"客座率大增，蒙煤库存加速去化 ——交运周专题 2025W18 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 出行链：客座率大增，"五一"票价略跌 海运：油轮运价回调，散运大船续涨 物流：快递件量维持快增，蒙煤库存加速去化 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Title "五一"客座率大增，蒙煤库存加速去化 2] ——交运周专题 2025W18 [Table_Summary2] 出行链：客座率大增，"五一"票价略跌 5 月 3 日，本周获益于"五一"小长假旺季，出行需求景气度提升，国内客运量增长提速，七 日移动平均同比增加 13%，增速环比持续爬升；国际客运量延续高增，七日移动平均同比增加 24%。"五一"小长假影响下，客座率大幅提升，4.30-5.03 期间平均国内客座率同比增加 4.9pcts，平均国际客座率同比增加 5.2pcts；收益表现仍然疲弱，国内含油票价持续承压，七 日移动平均同比下跌 10.0%，4.30-5.03 期间平均含油票价同比 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 客运量增长提速，油轮中东领涨 ——交运周专题 2025W17 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 出行链：国内客运量增长提速，票价跌幅收窄 海运：油轮中东领涨，集运持续阴跌 物流：蒙煤库存持续去化，大宗运价降幅收窄 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 [Table_Title 客运量增长提速，油轮中东领涨 2] ——交运周专题 2025W17 [Table_Summary2] 出行链：国内客运量增长提速，票价跌幅收窄 4 月 25 日，本周国内客运量增长提速，七日移动平均同比增加 10%，主要由于去年同期广深 雷暴天气频发，导致国内客运量基数较低；国际客运量延续高增，七日移动平均同比 ...