在"短途高频次，长线高品质"的假期旅行主基调下，居民的消费潜力得到了持续释放。长假作为全年刺 激消费情绪的黄金窗口期，叠加文旅热潮复苏与消费场景多元化，为快消、零售商品和餐饮市场带来结 构性机遇。10月1日至7日，全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额按可比口径同比增长2.7%，商务部重点监 测的78个商圈客流量、营业额同比分别增长8.8%和6.0%。绿色、智能、国潮消费亮点突出。抖音生活 服务10月8日公布的国庆中秋长假消费数据显示：体验式消费渐成主流。古镇古城、古风非遗相关体验 消费延续了近年来的火热态势，抖音团购订单量环比增长超100%。此外，博物馆也是大众文化游的热 门选择，团购订单量环比增长达68%。 同程旅行数据显示，今年国庆中秋长假，国内住宿市场呈现出连住酒店订单增速快、跨城市酒店预订频 次高、非一线城市高品质酒店和多居室民宿预订热度高的特征。8天长假，为用户开展高频次的本地周 边游，以及横跨多省的长线旅游提供了充裕的时间。假期中，国内酒店整体预订热度同比增长超过 65%，同时预订2个及以上城市的用户占比，同比增长超过20%。但可能受其他消费渠道对收入预算的 分摊影响，文旅对餐饮的带动效果低于去年同期。 ...

明明（中信证券首席经济学家） 2025年国庆中秋8天长假，出游人次创新高，新一线城市、县域旅游成为新兴消费增长极，自驾游、长 线游、跨境旅游等持续火热。 国内消费市场呈现"多极化"趋势，传统一线城市的主导地位正被打破，新一线城市、县域旅游成为新兴 消费增长极。微信支付数据显示，县域市场涨幅"领涨"全国，在假期前5日消费总额对比今年"五一"假 期增幅达到10%。重庆的微信支付消费金额、笔数均为第一，超越北上广深成为本次假期"双料冠军"， 成都、苏州、东莞等13座新一线城市的支付消费数据与北上广深一同"领跑"，展现了中国一线城市以外 的经济潜力和区域经济发展更加均衡的趋势。 自驾游、邻省出游增速较快，国内、国际客流均增长，消费活力凸显。根据交通运输部数据，10月1日 至8日，累计全社会跨区域人员流动量预计达到24.32亿人次，创历史同期新高；日均3.04亿人次，同比 增长6.2%。全国迁徙指数创21年以来新高，百度迁移指数同比增长近20%。从出行结构看，铁路、水 路、民航等各类交通客流量均有明显增长，公路出行仍占主导地位，同比增长最高达6.5%，其中自驾 出行比例高达八成，成为公众出行首选。滴滴数据显示，假期异地 ...

Group 1 - Power generation data for coal-fired plants showed a significant year-on-year decline of 14.8% as of September 11, marking the lowest level of the year, compared to a decline of 1.3% in August [1][6][7] - Industrial operating rates exhibited mixed trends, with the overall change being relatively stable compared to August; the operating rate for blast furnaces increased by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate for coke enterprises rose by 7.5 percentage points [2][8] - Key steel production from major steel mills showed a slight month-on-month decline, with rebar production averaging 2.153 million tons per day, down 1.1% month-on-month [3][9] Group 2 - Infrastructure funding availability stabilized, with the funding rate for construction sites reaching 59.39% as of September 16, a month-on-month increase of 0.17 percentage points [4][11] - High temperatures led to a relative decline in residents' mobility, with metro passenger volume in major cities averaging 60.24 million trips, down 3.5% month-on-month [5][12] - Real estate sales remained weak on a month-on-month basis, but showed improvement year-on-year, with average daily transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 6.3% compared to the same period last year [6][15][16] Group 3 - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year decline of 4% from September 1 to 14, while wholesale sales also decreased by 3% [7][19] - Home appliance sales growth slowed down significantly, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing declines of 33.9% to 0.3% year-on-year [8][20] - Container throughput at domestic ports increased by 11.7% year-on-year from September 1 to 14, indicating strong export resilience [9][21]

面对单边主义、保护主义，我们不断扩大"朋友圈"，拉紧经贸合作纽带，大力提振企业信心，共同应对 外部环境的急剧变化。今年1至8月，全省出口同比增长7.7%，比全国快0.8个点，进出口、出口规模均 达历史同期新高。出口总额占全国15.9%，持续32个月居全国第二。 浙江出口攻城略地，刚刚公布的数据显示，2023年1月至今年8月全省出口总值持续居全国第二。上半年 浙江经济增速与宁夏并列全国第4，有着出口的重要贡献。这是经济大省挑大梁的应有业绩，也印证了 浙江的经济韧性。 全球及我国出口格局正在发生较大变动。根据WTO数据，全球出口增长于2012年断崖式回落，从2011 年的增长19.8%，跌至仅增长0.9%，此后即2011至2024年，全球出口年均增长2.2%，比上一个10年低9.2 个点。 再看我国出口，2011至2024年，年均增长5.0%，比全球高2.7个点，但比我国上一个10年出口年均增长 低16.7个点。2021年，我国商品出口占全球出口额14.9%后开始回落，到2024年，我国出口占全球 14.6%，比2021年降低0.3个点。我国工业品出口2022年达到占全球工业品出口21.2%后回落，2024年占 ...

四季度宏观政策有可能推出新的增量措施，核心是财政加力、 央行降息，以及更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。这将在很 大程度上对冲外需放缓，遏制经济下行势头，确保顺利实现全 年"5.0%左右"的经济增长目标。 作者：田进 封图：图虫创意 8月出口同比增长4.8%，单月出口已连续6个月正增长；社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，增速 连续三个月下跌；前8个月全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长0.5%，增速较前7个月下滑1.1 个百分点。 9月15日，国家统计局公布了上述前八个月中国经济增长"成绩单"。数据发布当天的新闻发布会 上，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，总的来看，8月份经济运行总体平稳，高质量发展扎实推 进。但也要看到，外部环境复杂严峻，不确定因素较多，国内市场供强需弱，部分企业经营困难。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群表示，8月多项宏观经济数据显示，市场引导的 需求收缩力度在进一步加大。为进一步扩大消费，接下来相关政策需要在扩大就业、增加居民收入 方面取得显著成效。"居民越不容易挣到钱，越倾向于预防性储蓄。" 展望后续中国经济增长走势，付凌晖表示，中国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变， ...

Group 1: Profit Trends - In July, the year-on-year profit growth rate for industrial enterprises improved to -1.5%, showing a marginal recovery compared to June[9] - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 1.7% year-on-year[7] - The marginal recovery in profit margins was the main driver for the increase in profit growth rate in July[9] Group 2: Revenue and Demand - In July, industrial enterprises' operating revenue grew by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in growth rate[9] - The marginal decline in volume growth reflects weak downstream demand, contributing to the revenue slowdown[9] - The PMI data for July indicates an expanding gap between raw material procurement prices and factory prices, which may squeeze downstream profits[9] Group 3: Sector Performance - In July, the profit growth rate for the public utilities sector rose by 5.4 percentage points to 6.9%[9] - The mining sector's profit growth rate fell by 3.1 percentage points to -39.2%, primarily due to production cuts and inventory digestion[9] - The manufacturing sector's profit growth rate increased by 5.2 percentage points to 6.6%, with upstream profits recovering significantly[9] Group 4: Inventory and Supply Chain - As of the end of June, the nominal year-on-year growth of finished goods inventory for industrial enterprises was 2.4%, with actual growth at 6.2%[9] - The inventory turnover days for industrial enterprises in July were 20.5 days, indicating a slight increase in turnover[9] - The average collection period for accounts receivable remained stable at 69.8 days, suggesting ongoing pressure in the supply chain[9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The growth of export-oriented industries remains a crucial support for overall profits, with strong global non-U.S. demand observed[9] - The impact of upstream price increases on downstream profits is a key concern, especially as demand remains weak[9] - The resilience of domestic demand will be critical in maintaining stable corporate profits as economic data begins to reflect last year's high base[9]

Group 1 - The report by KPMG China indicates that China's economic growth will continue to be driven by resilient consumption, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting consumption [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP growth rate reached 5.3%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2, surpassing the historical average since 2021 [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, benefiting from policies like the "old-for-new" subsidy and e-commerce promotions [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the government is actively improving social security and increasing residents' income, with new policies such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education being implemented [1] - China's exports showed unexpected resilience, growing by 5.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The government's focus on addressing "involution" competition is expected to improve pricing and profitability in certain industries, potentially restoring investment willingness among manufacturing enterprises [2]

Group 1: Export Performance - In July, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 7.5% but exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 5.4%[3] - The month-on-month export growth was -1.1%, which is below the historical average of approximately 3.3% over the past decade, indicating a weaker performance compared to historical trends[4] - The resilience of exports is notable despite the significant tariffs imposed by the US, with cumulative year-on-year growth reaching 6.1% as of July, surpassing the 5.8% growth expected for 2024[7] Group 2: Import Dynamics - July imports also exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, significantly higher than the forecast of -1% and the previous month's growth of 1.1%[6] - The primary contributors to the import growth were raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil, copper ore, and integrated circuits, with "other unspecified goods" contributing 4.5 percentage points to the import growth[6] - The sustainability of this import growth remains uncertain, particularly as commodity prices decline and manufacturing PMI import indices remain below the threshold, indicating potential downward pressure on future import growth[6] Group 3: Regional Export Insights - The strongest export growth was observed in three regions: ASEAN, Africa, and the EU, which collectively contributed 6 percentage points to the year-on-year export growth in July[4] - Exports to the EU have been recovering in line with the manufacturing cycle in the Eurozone, with growth rates for exports to the EU maintaining around 9%-10% since March[7] - Exports to Africa showed the highest growth, particularly in vehicles and parts, with year-on-year growth soaring from 52.3% in April to 82.9% in June, significantly boosting overall export performance to Africa[6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall outlook for exports suggests potential adjustments in the second half of the year, with external demand expected to slow down and the impact of high base effects in the fourth quarter likely to exert downward pressure on year-on-year growth rates[6] - Leading indicators from G7 countries suggest that China's export growth may range between 3%-4% for the year, with a potential slowdown to 0%-2% in the latter half[6] - The combination of external demand pressures and high base effects could lead to a challenging environment for maintaining current export growth levels[6]

Export Data Insights - In July, dollar-denominated exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while imports rose by 4.1%, both significantly exceeding expectations and reaching new highs since May 2025 and August 2024 respectively[11] - The strong export performance is attributed to four main factors: low base effect, robust exports to non-US economies, a surge in transshipment activities, and the restructuring of supply chains leading to increased demand for capital goods[3] - From a price perspective, refined oil (+0.82%) was the main driver, while mobile phones (-0.42%) and steel (-0.21%) were the main constraints; in terms of quantity, automobiles (+0.61%) were the primary driver, while refined oil (-0.84%) was the main constraint[34] Global Economic Context - The global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector and a lack of reversal signals in the global manufacturing cycle[39] - The US market is a critical variable affecting external demand; a slowdown in US demand could lead to a downward shift in global export growth rates[43] - Recent US data indicates that tariffs have impacted corporate capital expenditures and employment demand, increasing the probability of an economic recession in the US[43] Inventory and Trade Dynamics - Unlike previous cycles, US wholesalers and retailers are experiencing declining inventory levels, with inventory-to-sales ratios at 1.30 and 1.31, below the central levels of 2023-2024[58] - The current inventory accumulation is likely occurring at the consumer level rather than the corporate level, suggesting a longer adjustment period when the cycle reverses[58] Risks and Uncertainties - Domestic policy effectiveness may fall short of expectations, and international geopolitical developments could introduce unexpected changes[63] - There is a potential for measurement errors in monthly import and export growth rates due to various variables in the models used[63]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 7.5% but above Bloomberg's expectation of 5.4%[1] - The month-on-month export growth was -1.1%, which is significantly lower than the historical average of approximately 3.3% over the past decade[3] - The strong export performance is supported by a low base effect from July of the previous year, which saw a month-on-month decline of 2.3%[12] Import Performance - July imports in USD terms rose by 4.1%, exceeding Bloomberg's forecast of -1% and the previous month's growth of 1.1%[1] - The main contributors to the import growth were raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil, copper ore, and integrated circuits[2] - The category of "other unspecified goods" significantly contributed to import growth, adding 4.5 percentage points in July compared to 2 percentage points in June[40] Regional Export Insights - Exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU were particularly strong, contributing a combined 6 percentage points to the overall export growth in July[15] - The EU's recovery in manufacturing is closely linked to the increase in exports, with a consistent growth rate of 9%-10% from March to July[17] - Exports to Africa showed the highest growth, driven mainly by vehicles and parts, with a year-on-year increase of 82.9% in June[26] Future Outlook - External demand is expected to slow down, with the global manufacturing PMI new export orders index dropping from 49.1% in June to 48.5% in July[34] - The third quarter is anticipated to have a low base effect, while the fourth quarter may face higher comparative figures, potentially leading to downward pressure on year-on-year growth rates[35] - Overall, export growth for the year is projected to be between 3% and 4%, with the second half of the year likely seeing growth rates of 0% to 2%[34]