罗志恒/文 在全球经济复苏不均、地缘政治不确定性加剧，尤其是美国对华加征高额关税的多重压力下，市场在年 初普遍预期2025年中国出口将面临较大压力。然而，事实与预期出现明显背离：尽管中国对美直接出口 出现显著下滑，但整体出口增速却不降反升。1—10月中国出口累计同比增长5.3%，10月出口当月同比 下降1.1%，主要因为去年同期高基数与今年10月工作日减少，并未改变前三季度出口整体向好的基本 面。考虑到美国4月以来整体进口增速便显著放缓，中国出口高增显然难以简单归因于对美"抢出 口"或"抢转口"带来的短期波动。中国出口韧性从何而来？还能持续多久？ 一、中国出口的超预期韧性 今年以来，中国出口同比依然维持较高增长，展现出超市场预期的强大韧性。2025年前三季度，中国出 口总额达2.8万亿美元，同比增长6.1%，为近三年来同期最高水平。货物和服务净出口对GDP同比增速 的拉动达1.5个百分点，创近十年同期次高，仅次于疫情恢复后的2021年。 中国出口份额或将进一步增长。中国出口增速虽低于越南，但显著高于韩国、日本等其他主要出口型经 济体。2025年前三季度，韩国和日本出口同比分别增长2.3%和2.5%，明显低于中 ...

Export Analysis - October exports unexpectedly turned negative year-on-year, influenced by base effects, with a two-year average year-on-year growth of 5.5%, similar to September's 5.3%[2] - For Q4, attention should be on the impact of reduced fentanyl tariffs on U.S. exports and the risk of weakening demand from the EU[2] - The core contradiction in exports is global trade volume (external demand), which can be tracked using a leading indicator system[2] Monetary Policy and Market Trends - In October, the central bank purchased 20 billion yuan in bonds, significantly below market expectations, indicating a cautious approach to bond buying[4] - The U.S. Treasury has increased bond supply to boost cash reserves, leading to a rise in short-term dollar financing pressures[5] - The average yield on 10-year government bonds has stabilized around 1.8% following various market influences[4] Investment Strategies - The stock fund total position is at 97.52%, down 54 basis points from last week, indicating a slight reduction in equity exposure[6] - The average return for balanced mixed funds was 0.7%, while stock ETFs averaged 0.43%[6] - The insurance sector has seen 34 instances of stake acquisitions this year, primarily in banking and public utilities, reflecting a focus on high dividend assets[9] Economic Outlook - The leading indicators suggest that export growth may rebound in November and December, with an annual export growth target around 5%[11] - The overall economic environment is expected to improve, with policies aimed at stabilizing asset quality and promoting credit growth[9]

Trade Data Overview - In October 2025, exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, down from 8.3% in September, while imports increased by 1.0%, down from 7.4%[2] - The trade surplus for October was $90.07 billion, a decrease of $5.64 billion compared to the same month last year[2] Export Performance - The two-year compound growth rate for October exports was 5.55%, indicating resilience despite the month-on-month decline of 7.0%[2] - Exports to the U.S. saw a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.17%, improving by 1.86 percentage points from September[2] - Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Japan all experienced declines, with year-on-year decreases of 13.26, 4.67, and 7.52 percentage points, respectively[2] Import Trends - October imports showed a significant month-on-month decline of 9.5%, weaker than the four-year average of -6.22%[2] - Key imports such as fertilizers and copper ore saw notable increases, while traditional demand-related imports like iron ore and steel continued to decline[2] Sector Insights - Midstream products dominated exports, with machinery and high-tech products experiencing declines of 9.7% and 11.4% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Certain sectors like shipbuilding and automotive showed significant recovery, reflecting ongoing strengths in midstream manufacturing[2] Economic Outlook - The report highlights the need for policy support to stabilize domestic demand, as import growth remains low despite five consecutive months of positive growth[3] - Risks include potential delays in domestic policy implementation and changes in U.S.-China tariff issues[3]

Export Performance - October exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly impacted by holiday effects and high base comparisons[1] - Major trading partners showed a mixed performance, with external demand experiencing a phase adjustment[1] - The PMI for October was reported at 50.8%, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Import Trends - October imports were valued at 215.3 billion, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year[1] - The overall import growth rate was 7.4%, indicating a stable demand for foreign goods[1] Regional Trade Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN, Hong Kong, and Africa remained strong, while exports to the US saw a reduced decline of 11%[1] - The export growth to ASEAN was reported at 18.2%, while exports to Africa increased by 25.3%[1] Automotive Sector Insights - The export growth rate for automobiles improved significantly, with a notable increase of 32.7% in October[2] - The automotive sector is expected to continue driving export resilience moving forward[2] Future Outlook - Export growth is projected to maintain a strong resilience, with annual growth expected at 4.4% for 2024[2] - Quarterly export growth rates are anticipated to be approximately 5.3%, 2.6%, 3.9%, and 5.6% respectively[2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the excavator sales are expected to grow rapidly by 2025, showing clear signs of industry recovery, driven by a new round of concentrated replacement cycles and the commencement of large projects, which will boost domestic demand [1] - The overseas market is experiencing structural prosperity, with continuous growth in infrastructure construction demand in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, leading to an increase in exports [1] - The overall industry fundamentals are showing a positive trend, with significant improvements in overall performance and structural opportunities existing in specific segments [1] Group 2 - The Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) tracks the China Securities Machine Tool Index (931866), which selects listed companies involved in machine tool manufacturing and key component supply from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - This index covers multiple fields including machinery, electronics, new energy, and robotics, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in China's machine tool industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's exports and imports in September 2023 exceeded expectations, with exports growing by 8.3% year-on-year and imports by 7.4%, supported by strong performance in semiconductor, automotive, and shipping industries [1][2] Group 1: Export Performance - Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Latin America showed double-digit year-on-year growth, effectively countering the impact of US tariff policies [1][2] - In the first three quarters of 2023, China's exports to the EU increased by 8.2%, with notable growth to Germany (10.5%), France (7.5%), and Italy (8.9%) [2] - Emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa contributed significantly to export resilience, with respective growth rates of 14.7%, 6.9%, and 28.3% [2] Group 2: Import Dynamics - The manufacturing PMI showed seasonal recovery in September, indicating slight improvement in economic conditions compared to August, which supported import growth [1] - Major commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, and copper saw year-on-year increases in import volumes, while integrated circuit imports grew by 8.9% in quantity and 9.8% in value [1] Group 3: Trade Structure and Trends - The share of emerging markets in China's export portfolio is increasing, with ASEAN and Latin America accounting for approximately 17% and 8% of total exports, respectively [3] - China's export structure is optimizing, with a growing share of high-end manufacturing products, driven by strong competitiveness in sectors like semiconductors and transportation equipment [3] - The share of textiles and miscellaneous products in total exports has been declining, while the share of high-end manufacturing goods has been rising, indicating a shift towards more competitive export offerings [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The WTO has significantly lowered the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, suggesting challenges ahead for China's foreign trade landscape [4] - Despite challenges from US tariff policies and global trade uncertainties, the diversification of trade partners and stable economic relations with the EU are expected to support export resilience [4] - The ongoing transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing is enhancing the global competitiveness of certain industrial chains [4]

Core Insights - The 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday saw record high travel numbers, with emerging consumption growth in new first-tier cities and county tourism, indicating a shift from traditional first-tier cities [1] - Domestic consumption is showing a "multi-polar" trend, with significant growth in county markets, which outpaced national averages, highlighting the economic potential outside major cities [1] - The travel structure is evolving, with self-driving and long-distance travel gaining popularity, reflecting consumer preferences for efficiency and cost balance [2] Group 1: Travel and Tourism Trends - Self-driving and inter-provincial travel are experiencing rapid growth, with a total of 2.432 billion people expected to travel during the holiday, marking a historical high [2] - The proportion of self-driving trips reached 80%, with significant increases in inter-city ride-hailing orders and cross-province travel bookings [2] - Cross-border tourism is witnessing a comprehensive recovery, with a 24% increase in entry and exit numbers at Pudong International Airport compared to the previous year [3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Market Dynamics - The holiday period is a critical time for consumer spending, with retail and dining sales increasing by 2.7% year-on-year, and foot traffic in monitored shopping districts rising by 8.8% [4] - Experience-based consumption is becoming mainstream, with significant growth in orders for cultural and heritage experiences, as well as museum visits [4] - The domestic hotel market showed a 65% increase in booking heat, with a notable rise in multi-city bookings and high-quality accommodations outside first-tier cities [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Challenges - The film market is underperforming due to competition from short videos and a lack of diverse film offerings, while real estate sales show a clear divide between first and second-tier cities [5] - Despite strong export data and port activity, the global economic environment is facing challenges, with a slowdown in growth observed in the Eurozone [5] - There is a need for fiscal and monetary support to stimulate domestic demand, as the holiday consumption data shows significant disparities across sectors [6]

Group 1: Domestic Travel Trends - The 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday saw record high travel numbers, with emerging consumption growth in new first-tier cities and county-level tourism [1] - WeChat Pay data indicates that the county market led national growth, with a 10% increase in total consumption compared to the May Day holiday [1] - Chongqing topped the list in WeChat Pay consumption, surpassing major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1] Group 2: Travel Patterns and Preferences - From October 1 to 8, the total inter-regional population flow reached 2.432 billion, a historical high, with a daily average of 304 million, up 6.2% year-on-year [2] - Road travel remains dominant, with a 6.5% year-on-year increase, and self-driving trips accounting for 80% of travel choices [2] - Didi reported a 51% increase in intercity ride-hailing orders during the holiday [2] Group 3: Cross-Border Travel Recovery - Cross-border tourism is experiencing a comprehensive recovery, with a 24% year-on-year increase in entry and exit passenger numbers at Pudong International Airport [3] - Daily entry and exit figures averaged 2.043 million during the holiday, up 11.5% from the previous year [3] - Popular destinations for outbound travel include Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [3] Group 4: Consumer Spending and Market Dynamics - Retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with foot traffic and sales in monitored business districts rising by 8.8% and 6.0%, respectively [4] - Experience-based consumption is becoming mainstream, with significant growth in orders for cultural and heritage experiences [4] - Domestic hotel bookings surged over 65% year-on-year, with a notable increase in multi-city reservations [4] Group 5: Economic Indicators and Market Performance - The film market showed a subdued response due to competition from short videos and homogenized film offerings [5] - Domestic port throughput during the holiday increased by 4.69%, indicating strong export activity despite a complex global economic environment [5] - The need for fiscal and monetary stimulus to support domestic demand recovery remains high, with structural adjustments necessary for sustained growth [6]

Group 1 - Power generation data for coal-fired plants showed a significant year-on-year decline of 14.8% as of September 11, marking the lowest level of the year, compared to a decline of 1.3% in August [1][6][7] - Industrial operating rates exhibited mixed trends, with the overall change being relatively stable compared to August; the operating rate for blast furnaces increased by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate for coke enterprises rose by 7.5 percentage points [2][8] - Key steel production from major steel mills showed a slight month-on-month decline, with rebar production averaging 2.153 million tons per day, down 1.1% month-on-month [3][9] Group 2 - Infrastructure funding availability stabilized, with the funding rate for construction sites reaching 59.39% as of September 16, a month-on-month increase of 0.17 percentage points [4][11] - High temperatures led to a relative decline in residents' mobility, with metro passenger volume in major cities averaging 60.24 million trips, down 3.5% month-on-month [5][12] - Real estate sales remained weak on a month-on-month basis, but showed improvement year-on-year, with average daily transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 6.3% compared to the same period last year [6][15][16] Group 3 - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year decline of 4% from September 1 to 14, while wholesale sales also decreased by 3% [7][19] - Home appliance sales growth slowed down significantly, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing declines of 33.9% to 0.3% year-on-year [8][20] - Container throughput at domestic ports increased by 11.7% year-on-year from September 1 to 14, indicating strong export resilience [9][21]

Core Insights - Zhejiang's export value from January to August 2023 ranks second nationally, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, outpacing the national average by 0.8 percentage points [1][2] - The province's economic resilience is highlighted by its significant contribution to overall economic growth, with exports accounting for 15.9% of the national total [1] - The long-term innovation in institutional mechanisms has been crucial for Zhejiang's export resilience, supported by the dual engines of enterprise reform and China's WTO accession [1] Export Structure and Trade Dynamics - General trade is a strong point for Zhejiang, with 76.4% of the province's exports coming from this category, which is 10 percentage points higher than the national average [2] - The export structure is diversifying, with a notable decrease in the share of textiles and garments, which fell to 16.5%, while electromechanical products now account for over 50% of the province's exports [2] - The export of electrical equipment leads the electromechanical sector, with a total export value of 102.8 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.6% year-on-year increase [2] Regional Export Distribution - Zhejiang exhibits a combination of concentrated and dispersed export characteristics, with strong market foundations in Europe and North America, where exports account for 24.4% and 15.7% of total exports, respectively [3] - The province's ability to expand into emerging markets is evident, as its export shares to Latin America, Africa, and Oceania exceed national averages [3] Global and National Export Trends - Global export growth has significantly declined since 2012, with an average annual growth rate of only 2.2% from 2011 to 2024, which is 9.2 percentage points lower than the previous decade [3][4] - China's export growth from 2011 to 2024 is projected at an average of 5.0%, which is higher than the global average but lower than the previous decade's performance by 16.7 percentage points [4] Strategic Recommendations - Strengthening domestic demand and enhancing internal circulation is crucial, with the province's industrial exports projected to be 128.4% of its industrial added value in 2024 [5] - Investment in central and northeastern regions is recommended to bolster internal circulation, alongside promoting "sales of real estate" nationwide to enhance Zhejiang's role as a dual circulation hub [5] - Utilizing port advantages to increase imports can balance trade and enhance domestic supply, contributing to coordinated economic development [5]