Group 1 - Ukraine is set to equip its military with 4,000 long-range missiles, posing a significant threat to 200 Russian oil refineries, which are at risk of being targeted [1][3] - The U.S. is providing Ukraine with 3,350 new long-range cruise missiles with a maximum range of 450 kilometers, which will be transported via air to Poland and then to Ukraine [3] - Ukraine's domestic missile factories are ramping up production of a new long-range cruise missile named "Flamingo," capable of covering a range of 3,000 kilometers, allowing for potential saturation airstrikes against Russian territory [3] Group 2 - Over the past two years, Ukraine has utilized drones and HIMARS rocket systems to attack Russian oil refineries, crippling 17% of Russia's refining capacity, equivalent to a loss of 1.1 million barrels of oil per day [4] - The primary targets for Ukraine's missile strikes are the 200 oil refineries located in the western plains of Russia, which are crucial for Russia's economy, heavily reliant on energy exports exceeding $300 billion annually [4] - A significant strike on these refineries could lead to a devastating blow to Russia's energy system, potentially forcing Russia to halt its military operations due to the loss of financial support [4] Group 3 - Despite the potential impact of targeting oil refineries, it is unlikely that such actions will compel President Putin to concede, as Russia also exports natural gas and maintains strategic nuclear deterrence [6] - The Russian military leadership believes that Europe may declare war on Russia within three years, which aligns with Russia's strategy of engaging in a war of attrition [6] - The ongoing conflict may result in substantial losses for Russia, but Europe and Ukraine are also expected to face significant challenges, with Russia confident in its ability to navigate the international energy market [6]