Core Viewpoint - Ukraine has developed domestically produced missiles with a range of 3000 kilometers, which could significantly enhance its military capabilities in the ongoing conflict with Russia [1] Group 1: Military Developments - President Zelensky announced the successful development of Ukrainian missiles with a range of 3000 kilometers during the EU summit in Brussels [1] - The "Firebird" cruise missile, which has a range of 3000 kilometers, has entered mass production [1] - Ukraine has successfully integrated the use of domestically produced "Neptune" missiles with the "Firebird" cruise missiles [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The Trump administration lifted key restrictions on Ukraine's use of certain long-range missiles provided by Western allies [1] - In response to the potential use of these long-range weapons against Russian territory, President Putin warned of an overwhelming response from Russia [1]

Group 1 - Ukraine is set to equip its military with 4,000 long-range missiles, posing a significant threat to 200 Russian oil refineries, which are at risk of being targeted [1][3] - The U.S. is providing Ukraine with 3,350 new long-range cruise missiles with a maximum range of 450 kilometers, which will be transported via air to Poland and then to Ukraine [3] - Ukraine's domestic missile factories are ramping up production of a new long-range cruise missile named "Flamingo," capable of covering a range of 3,000 kilometers, allowing for potential saturation airstrikes against Russian territory [3] Group 2 - Over the past two years, Ukraine has utilized drones and HIMARS rocket systems to attack Russian oil refineries, crippling 17% of Russia's refining capacity, equivalent to a loss of 1.1 million barrels of oil per day [4] - The primary targets for Ukraine's missile strikes are the 200 oil refineries located in the western plains of Russia, which are crucial for Russia's economy, heavily reliant on energy exports exceeding $300 billion annually [4] - A significant strike on these refineries could lead to a devastating blow to Russia's energy system, potentially forcing Russia to halt its military operations due to the loss of financial support [4] Group 3 - Despite the potential impact of targeting oil refineries, it is unlikely that such actions will compel President Putin to concede, as Russia also exports natural gas and maintains strategic nuclear deterrence [6] - The Russian military leadership believes that Europe may declare war on Russia within three years, which aligns with Russia's strategy of engaging in a war of attrition [6] - The ongoing conflict may result in substantial losses for Russia, but Europe and Ukraine are also expected to face significant challenges, with Russia confident in its ability to navigate the international energy market [6]

Group 1 - Ukraine publicly showcased the R-360 "Neptune" cruise missile's long-range variant, known as the "Long-Range Neptune," with a reported range of up to 1000 kilometers, significantly upgraded from the original range of approximately 290 kilometers [1] - The "Neptune" missile is developed by Ukraine and is based on Soviet-era technologies, including the X-35 missile, and is designed to target maritime and coastal objectives [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine is now using domestically produced long-range weapons to strike targets within Russia without prior coordination with the United States, indicating a shift in operational strategy [2] Group 2 - Reports indicate that the U.S. Department of Defense has been actively preventing Ukraine from using U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems to strike targets within Russia, with a high-level approval process in place since late spring [3][5] - The approval process, overseen by Deputy Defense Secretary Colin Kahl, determines whether to support Ukraine's use of long-range weapons against Russia, effectively reversing previous policies that allowed such actions [7] - Ukraine has developed various domestic long-range weapons, including drones aimed at attacking Russian oil refineries and aircraft, showcasing its growing military capabilities [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine has successfully tested and is beginning mass production of a long-range cruise missile named "Flamingo," which has a range of up to 3000 kilometers [1] Group 1 - The Ukrainian Defense Minister Shmyhal announced the existence of powerful long-range weapons, with details to be disclosed at an appropriate time [1] - The "Flamingo" cruise missile is reported to be in mass production and is being equipped for use by Ukraine [1]