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贝壳-W(02423):产能延续扩张势头,费率管控成效显著
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-19 13:12
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company continues to expand its capacity, with significant improvements in fee management leading to enhanced potential profitability. The self-operated platform drives GTV growth, and both existing and new housing monetization ratios have improved sequentially. The company is expected to maintain a valuation premium due to its competitive advantages and potential earnings elasticity [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.3 billion (up 42.4%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.86 billion (up 98.2%). Adjusted net profit was 1.39 billion (up 0.1%) [6]. - The company’s GTV for Q1 2025 was 843.7 billion (up 34.0%), with existing and new housing businesses growing by 28.1% and 53.0%, respectively [6]. Business Segments Performance - The revenue from existing housing and new housing businesses increased by 20.0% and 64.2%, respectively. Home decoration revenue grew by 22.3%, while rental revenue surged by 93.8% [6]. - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 20.7%, but gross profit increased by 17.0% year-on-year [6]. Cost Management and Financial Health - The company effectively managed costs, with selling, general, and administrative expenses decreasing as a percentage of revenue by 7.0 percentage points to 18.1%. The tax rate also decreased by 10.3 percentage points to 38.1% [6]. - As of Q1 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling 54.8 billion, indicating strong liquidity. The company has prioritized shareholder returns, spending 1.39 billion on share buybacks [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see adjusted net profits of 8.25 billion, 9.02 billion, and 10.03 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20.2, 18.5, and 16.6 [6]. - The company has room for growth in brokerage business share, and home decoration and rental segments are anticipated to contribute to future growth [2][6].
贝壳-W(02423.HK):营收稳健增长 经调整利润略超预期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-17 04:04
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 42.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 23.3 billion yuan, although adjusted net profit remained stable at 1.4 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - The company's GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for Q1 2025 was 843.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, which supported stable revenue growth [1] - Revenue from various business segments showed significant growth: second-hand housing at 6.9 billion yuan (+20.0%), new housing at 8.1 billion yuan (+64.2%), home decoration at 2.9 billion yuan (+22.3%), rental at 5.1 billion yuan (+93.8%), while emerging and other businesses generated 0.3 billion yuan (-50.0%) [1] - The company's gross margin decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 20.7%, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin existing housing business and an increase in fixed salary costs relative to existing housing revenue [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - The second-hand housing business saw a total transaction value increase of 28.1% year-on-year to 580.3 billion yuan, supported by an expanding number of active stores and agents [2] - The number of active stores reached 55,000, a 29.6% increase year-on-year, while the number of active agents grew by 49,100, representing a 23.0% increase [2] - The new housing business transaction value surged by 53.0% year-on-year to 232.2 billion yuan, with the commission rate improving by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5% [2] - The home decoration business showed steady growth, with contribution margin increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 32.6%, indicating improvements in customer experience and efficiency [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic brokerage industry, with potential for future earnings growth driven by increased turnover rates in the second-hand housing market and higher penetration rates in new housing brokerage [3] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 9.7 billion yuan, 11.6 billion yuan, and 13.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.83 yuan, 2.36 yuan, and 2.91 yuan, and adjusted PE ratios of 16.3X, 14.4X, and 12.3X [3]