Core Viewpoint - Raw sugar prices have experienced a rebound followed by a decline, with the March contract closing in a bearish pattern, indicating a potential test of the 14-cent support level [1] Market Performance - Domestic spot prices continue to decline, with new sugar prices dropping nearly 300 points, reflecting weak market transactions and sustained old sugar inventory supporting demand [1] - The Liuzhou market's 26013 order contracts are consistently falling, reaching new recent lows, indicating significant selling pressure [1] Technical Analysis - Attention should be paid to the thickness of the 5205 resistance level; if this resistance holds, it suggests a high level of stop-loss acceptance among buyers, impacting the ongoing decline of the 26053 order [1] - The 2605 contract should focus on the performance of the 5110 resistance; if this resistance remains intact during a reduction in positions, it indicates new short positions are being taken, reinforcing a bearish sentiment [1] - If the 5095 gap resistance proves effective, there may be a short-term impact on the 5030 support level [1]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline in the 2026/27 season, while domestic sugar mills in Guangxi are ramping up production, leading to increased sugar supply in the market [1][2][3] Group 1: Brazil Sugar Market - As of November 26, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 56 from 61 the previous week, with the total sugar waiting for shipment at 2.0672 million tons, down 10.1% from 2.2994 million tons [1] - The sugar production forecast for Brazil's 2026/27 season is set at 41.5 million tons, lower than the previous year's estimate of 40.2 million tons [1] Group 2: Domestic Sugar Market in China - In Guangxi, over 20 sugar mills have commenced operations as of November 26, with expectations that the total will reach between 31 and 35 by the end of November, indicating a peak in sugar production [1] - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to the increase in new sugar supply, while the current spot market transactions are generally stable [2][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture has raised the domestic sugar production forecast while lowering demand expectations, leading to an anticipated increase in ending stocks [3]

Group 1 - Raw sugar has rebounded from a five-week decline, with attention on the 15-cent resistance level this week. If this resistance holds, it may indicate a short-term exhaustion of short positions, leading to a potential pullback towards the 14.70-cent support level [1] - The domestic market is currently weak as old sugar needs to be digested before new sugar enters the market. Prices are not high enough to encourage downstream replenishment, resulting in a continued consolidation phase [1] - The market in Liuzhou shows a cautious trading environment, with the contract displaying four consecutive doji candlesticks after a low of 5426, indicating indecision among buyers and sellers [1] Group 2 - The 2601 sugar futures contract shows a high and then a pullback, forming a shooting star pattern on the weekly chart, with 5460 as a key support level to watch [2] - Short-term indicators suggest a potential for oscillation within the range of 5460 to 5504, indicating a cautious trading approach [2]