原糖在冲高中回落，三月合约昨晚日线收出阴线形态，日内高点顶在14.80美分之处，这就是典型的支 撑变阻挡，如此支撑告破之下形成了破位下跌走势，接下来将再次考验14美分支撑。 国内现货还是跌跌不休的样子，而新糖在跌了将近三百点之下，市场还是没有像样的成交，这就表明老 糖库存还在支撑需求，加之需求变量情况，阶段弱势将持续。柳州市场26013订货合同持续着下跌走 势，且继续刷新了近期价格新低，看来抛售压力不小。而在后续的减持订货库存之下，需要紧盯5205阻 挡层的厚度，如果该阻挡有效，说明买方阵营的止损认可度较高，如此一来，对于持续放量下跌的 26053订货而言，就需要关注5160-5170的分钟缺口压制情况，如果在分钟级别上形成反抽背驰，也就验 证了缺口压制有效性，跌势在持续。 （来源：沐甜科技） 来源：沐甜科技 期糖2605合约近期重点关注5110的阻挡表现，如果在减仓走势中阻挡仍然岿然不动的话，说明在旧空头 回补之下又有新空头接手，如此换手意味着看跌气氛浓，特别是在分钟级别上，如果5095缺口阻挡有 效，那么短线将冲击5030支撑。 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline in the 2026/27 season, while domestic sugar mills in Guangxi are ramping up production, leading to increased sugar supply in the market [1][2][3] Group 1: Brazil Sugar Market - As of November 26, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 56 from 61 the previous week, with the total sugar waiting for shipment at 2.0672 million tons, down 10.1% from 2.2994 million tons [1] - The sugar production forecast for Brazil's 2026/27 season is set at 41.5 million tons, lower than the previous year's estimate of 40.2 million tons [1] Group 2: Domestic Sugar Market in China - In Guangxi, over 20 sugar mills have commenced operations as of November 26, with expectations that the total will reach between 31 and 35 by the end of November, indicating a peak in sugar production [1] - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to the increase in new sugar supply, while the current spot market transactions are generally stable [2][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture has raised the domestic sugar production forecast while lowering demand expectations, leading to an anticipated increase in ending stocks [3]

Group 1 - Raw sugar has rebounded from a five-week decline, with attention on the 15-cent resistance level this week. If this resistance holds, it may indicate a short-term exhaustion of short positions, leading to a potential pullback towards the 14.70-cent support level [1] - The domestic market is currently weak as old sugar needs to be digested before new sugar enters the market. Prices are not high enough to encourage downstream replenishment, resulting in a continued consolidation phase [1] - The market in Liuzhou shows a cautious trading environment, with the contract displaying four consecutive doji candlesticks after a low of 5426, indicating indecision among buyers and sellers [1] Group 2 - The 2601 sugar futures contract shows a high and then a pullback, forming a shooting star pattern on the weekly chart, with 5460 as a key support level to watch [2] - Short-term indicators suggest a potential for oscillation within the range of 5460 to 5504, indicating a cautious trading approach [2]