Core Insights - The housing market in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai has seen a rebound in new home sales prices following the removal of purchase restrictions in August, with Shanghai and Hangzhou leading the price increases [2][3] - Despite the price increases in new homes, the overall real estate market remains under pressure, with significant declines in both sales volume and investment [2][5] - The trend of "price for volume" continues to dominate the second-hand housing market, with a notable increase in transactions despite falling prices [5][11] Data Analysis - In the first nine months of the year, national real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [2] - New residential sales area was 65,835 million square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year, with sales revenue of 63,040 billion yuan, a decline of 7.9% [2] - The sales revenue for new residential properties is projected to fall below 10 trillion yuan for the first time in 2024, estimated at 9,675 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1% [2] Market Trends - In September, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, but Beijing and Shanghai saw increases of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively [3][6] - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities experienced a 1.0% decline in prices, with all major cities reporting decreases [3][5] - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased from 5 to 8, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [12] Land Market - Private enterprises have increased their presence in the land market, particularly in Guangzhou, where they accounted for 25% of residential land transactions in the first three quarters [8] - The land market shows a divergence in heat, with high premium rates in core urban areas indicating a recovery in developer confidence [9] Future Predictions - The market is expected to stabilize as the inventory reduction cycle accelerates, with a projected decrease in new home prices but a potential narrowing of declines in second-hand home prices [11][12] - The trend of "price for volume" is likely to continue in non-core areas and smaller cities, while core cities may see a more stable price environment due to policy support [11][12]