行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 结论： 春节期间美国关税再生变数，在 IEEPA 关税被判无效后，特朗普在上周末宣 布将依据贸易法 122 条款征税 10%的关税并计划进一步提高至 15%，但综合考虑取 消的 IEEPA 关税后，短期对中国影响应有限，并无紧急加码货币政策的必要。春 节后持券过节的机构或有止盈需求，且政府债供给压力将攀升，虽然现金回流形 | | 表1：国债期货2月26日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

春节假期刚过，上海便发布了楼市"沪七条"，涵盖多个领域。 从具体内容看，房产税调整存在感最低，在上海，原本需要缴纳房产税的家庭不多，基本都是中高净值群体，此次调整的实际影响有限。公积金贷款额度提 升虽为购房群体提供了更多选择，但当前公积金贷与商贷利率利差显著收窄，政策效用大打折扣，唯有待未来公积金利率进一步下调、与商贷利差重新拉大 后，此类政策才能发挥更明显的作用。 此次新政的核心在于限购政策的针对性放松，可概括为"让更多外地人有资格上车"，具体表现为三条关键举措。 其一，取消社保个税缴纳门槛，仅需持有上海居住证满5年即可购房。 此前上海要求购房者至少缴纳1年社保或个税，新政将这一限制放宽至居住证持有5年即可，且购房区域不受限制,,即从外环外到内环内均可选择，但仅限购 一套。 这一调整看似力度大，实则影响有限，因为能持有5年居住证且具备购房能力的群体，大多已满足社保缴纳条件。真正受益的可能是经济条件较好的新毕业 学生群体。 其二，多孩家庭购房门槛大幅降低。 此前非户籍多孩家庭在核心区域（外环内）购置二套房需缴纳3年以上社保或个税，新政将这一期限缩短至1年。 配合此前已放开的外环外限购政策，多孩家庭在沪购房选择 ...

此外，在个人住房房产税方面，张波认为，政策的完善是对沪籍家庭改善置换需求的实质性松绑，精准 缓解置业税费顾虑，与当前二手房流通性不足的特征形成呼应。上海二手房已经成为市场成交主力，沪 籍家庭作为本地置业主力，其改善置换需求的释放是推动市场循环的关键。此次房产税政策调整，本市 户籍居民家庭中的子女成年后，购买住房属于成年子女家庭唯一住房的，即可暂免征收房产税，不仅能 鼓励沪籍家庭合理置换，更能推动二手房市场房源流通性提升。 张波表示："随着春节后市场回归常态，政策效应逐步释放，上海楼市有望成为一线城市企稳修复的标 杆，带动长三角核心城市形成联动复苏态势。" （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经上海2月25日电在全国楼市筑底修复的关键阶段，上海于2月25日推出"沪七条"楼市调控新政， 从限购、公积金、房产税三大核心维度协同发力，以稳定市场、优化供给、提升流通为目标，助力激活 合理住房需求，打通置换链条，缓解存量流通压力，带动增量市场，在稳定市场的同时，推动行业 向"好房子"建设、高质量发展转型。 关于此次"沪七条"，58安居客研究院院长张波认为，这是针对刚需、改善、置换三类真实需求的精准赋 能，政策落地后将直接带动三 ...

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 通知内容包括，对持《上海市居住证》满5年及以上的非沪籍居民家庭或成年单身人士，在上海市限购1 套住房，无需提供缴纳社保或个税证明。 将缴存人家庭购买首套住房的公积金贷款最高额度从160万元提高至240万元，叠加多子女家庭和购买绿 色建筑最高贷款额度上浮政策（最高上浮35%），上海市公积金家庭贷款最高额度可达到324万元。对 购买第二套住房的最高贷款额度也相应予以提高。 为更好满足居民刚性和改善性住房需求，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，2月25日，上海市住房城乡建 设管理委等五部门联合印发通知，其中提到，进一步调减住房限购政策、优化住房公积金贷款政策。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the varying responses to challenges, comparing a minor fall that one can recover from independently to a more severe situation requiring medical intervention [1] - It emphasizes the importance of not flooding the real estate market with excessive liquidity, suggesting that the market and time should be allowed to address issues naturally [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that individuals holding multiple properties should sell them quickly to avoid being left with unsellable assets, while those who have not yet purchased should consider delaying their buying plans [2] Group 2 - The real estate market is experiencing oversupply, with 120 million vacant homes available, contrasting with a slowing population growth and declining marriage and birth rates, leading to a potential downward trend in housing prices [4] - The demand for improved housing is decreasing as many families face reduced incomes or unemployment, making them more cautious about future economic prospects and postponing their purchasing plans [4] - Speculators in the housing market are retreating, with a significant increase in second-hand housing listings, which rose by 25% from 1.59 million to nearly 2 million in key cities by June 2023 [6] Group 3 - The impending introduction of property taxes is expected to increase holding costs for families with multiple properties, prompting a recommendation to liquidate excess real estate before the tax is implemented [6] Group 4 - Historical data shows that from 1998 to 2020, housing prices in China rose significantly, with an increase of 5.5 times on average, but since mid-2021, the market has shown signs of adjustment, particularly with a notable decline in both volume and price in early 2023 [8] - The government has introduced various supportive policies to stimulate the market, including lowering mortgage rates and adjusting down payment requirements [8] Group 5 - The conclusion suggests that the likelihood of significant price increases in the housing market is minimal, and potential buyers should consider waiting for a more favorable market environment to make their purchases [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai government's new measures for second-hand housing aim to stabilize the market by establishing price benchmarks, accelerating property digestion, and activating the replacement chain to release housing demand, ultimately creating a model for handling existing housing stock [1][3][10]. Group 1: Government Measures - The initiative is backed by government credit, serving as a direct stabilizer for the second-hand housing market and alleviating price panic [3][5]. - The pilot program focuses on specific districts (Pudong, Jing'an, Xuhui) and targets older, smaller properties built before 2000, priced under 4 million yuan, which are typically the least liquid in the market [3][5]. - To ensure fair pricing, the purchasing entities will obtain valuations from at least three professional institutions, establishing an "official fair price" that prevents irrational price drops [3][5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The government's role as a "credible buyer" sends a strong signal to the market, enhancing transaction activity for mid-to-low-priced properties, which account for over 70% of the second-hand market [5][6]. - The policy opens a safe exit channel for homeowners, encouraging them to list their properties rather than hold back, thus activating the "sell old, buy new" replacement chain [6][8]. - The increased supply of newer properties meets the demand from first-time buyers, who are now more willing to make purchases without the fear of falling prices [8][10]. Group 3: Innovative Approach - Shanghai's approach represents a new paradigm in macro-control for second-hand housing, achieving multiple goals of stabilizing the market, benefiting residents, and reducing inventory [8][10]. - The pilot program employs a cash purchase model without binding new home purchases, allowing for more flexible government interventions based on rental housing supply needs [10][12]. - The initiative is designed to be replicable, focusing on specific market pain points and combining market stability with social welfare objectives [12][13]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The recovery of Shanghai's real estate market is significant for driving nationwide inventory reduction in the property sector [10]. - The innovative design of the policy aims for a win-win situation, providing affordable rental housing while alleviating financial pressure on property developers [10][12]. - The success of Shanghai's pilot could serve as a reference for other cities in managing their second-hand housing markets and optimizing real estate regulation [10][12].

Group 1 - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities in China increased by 0.18% month-on-month to 17,114 yuan per square meter in January 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 2.52% [1][3] - The second-hand housing market, however, saw a decline, with an average price of 12,905 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.85% and a year-on-year drop of 8.67% [3] - The divergence between new and second-hand housing prices has become a common trend, with new home prices slightly rising due to structural factors, particularly in core cities like Chengdu, Shanghai, and Hangzhou [3] Group 2 - The transaction volume in the second-hand housing market in 13 key cities increased significantly, with a total area of approximately 8.1 million square meters sold in January, marking a 16% month-on-month rise and a 33% year-on-year increase [3] - The current market dynamics indicate that as long as prices adjust appropriately, genuine housing demand remains, suggesting a healthy "price for volume" phenomenon during the market bottoming process [3][4] - Policies aimed at stabilizing expectations and supporting market development have been implemented, including the extension of housing tax rebates and structural interest rate cuts [4][6] Group 3 - The real estate policy has shifted towards stabilizing expectations and shortening adjustment periods, focusing on promoting a soft landing and healthy market development rather than aggressive price increases [6] - The market is expected to slow down temporarily in February due to the traditional Spring Festival holiday, but there is potential for a "small spring" in the housing market in March as quality land parcels are set to be released [6]

Core Viewpoint - There is a noticeable shift in the perception of non-residential properties, such as business apartments, among homebuyers, with recent sales of low-priced small apartments exceeding expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The People's Bank of China has lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, which is expected to stimulate demand [1]. - Recent data from the Shenzhen Beike Research Institute indicates a simultaneous increase in the transaction share of non-residential properties in both new and second-hand markets, with new non-residential transactions expected to reach 31.4% by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [5]. - The transaction share of second-hand non-residential properties is projected to be 17.5% in 2025, marking a 2% year-on-year increase, the second-highest since 2012 [5]. Group 2: Buyer Preferences - There is a growing preference among buyers for small apartments intended for self-use or rental, driven by their lower entry barriers and higher rental yields [6]. - For instance, a 30-square-meter business apartment in the Hongxiang Garden area is priced below 1 million yuan, with a monthly rental income of around 3,000 yuan, resulting in a rental yield exceeding 3% [6]. - The popularity of business apartments is reflected in the high transaction volume, with the Xinghe Tiandi Pavilion recording 489 signed contracts, ranking among the top 10 in the residential market [6]. Group 3: Challenges and Concerns - Despite the positive trends, high transaction tax costs and loan restrictions deter many buyers from pursuing business apartments, leading to calls for adjustments in tax policies [7]. - The overall inventory of commercial properties remains high, and the difficulty in depleting this inventory has resulted in significant price declines [9].

Core Insights - The recent actions by the central bank, including interest rate cuts and reduced down payment requirements for commercial properties, reflect underlying anxieties within the decision-making body regarding market conditions [2][6][9] Interest Rate Changes - The central bank has officially lowered the re-lending and re-discount rates by 25 basis points, reducing the cost for commercial banks to borrow from the central bank [6] - This reduction is expected to create more room for the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to decrease, potentially bringing Shenzhen's current mortgage rate of 3.05% down to 2.8% by the first quarter of 2026 [6] Commercial Property Market - The down payment ratio for commercial properties has been reduced from 50% to 30%, indicating severe inventory pressure in the commercial property market [6] - The liquidation cycle for commercial properties in Shanghai has reached an alarming 21 years, while Guangzhou is at 5 years, and Shenzhen is relatively healthier at just over 1 year [9] Investment Opportunities - Shenzhen's apartments and commercial properties have shown significant price reductions, with rental yields now averaging 4-5%, creating potential for arbitrage opportunities [9] - Investment institutions and individual investors are increasingly entering the Shenzhen market, indicating a shift in sentiment towards these assets [9] Housing Accessibility - The new policies also provide an opportunity for young professionals working in core areas to access affordable housing options without needing to commute long distances [10] - The strategy of "precise drip irrigation" in policy implementation aims to stabilize market expectations without inflating property prices excessively [10] Caution in Investment - Despite the favorable conditions, caution is advised in selecting properties, emphasizing the importance of location, infrastructure, and future potential [11] - The focus should be on acquiring high-quality assets in core areas rather than speculative investments in less desirable properties [11]