80 后楼市观察者，农村娃进城定居，专注地产研究 18 年，是你了解房市变化、掌握置业先机的知心朋友。 你知道吗？ 据最新的内部统计数据显示， 美联储 10 月降息 25 个基点的概率已经飙到 91.1% 了！ 换句话说，美联储大概率这个月继续下降利率。 这可是继 9 月降息后的又一波宽松，全球都要进入 " 借钱便宜 " 的时代了。 紧跟着，国内 10 月 20 号的房贷利率调整也快到了，估计 LPR 得降 10 到 20 个基点。 有人说这是楼市救星，也有人说这是离场信号。 今天 我们就来好好谈谈 ：降息来了，我们的房子到底该怎么办？ 1 美联储降息，中国为啥必须跟？ 其实，我们不得不承认这个事实： 美联储降息从来不是美国自己的事， 而 是全球资本的 " 指挥棒 " 。 现在美国通胀下来了，二季度 GDP 还涨了 3.8% ，手里有粮，降息自然有底气。 而我们呢？ 这时候中国不跟不行啊！ 美元一降息，人民币贬值压力就小了，咱们央行才有宽松的空间。 说白了，美国放水，咱们跟着放点，钱才不会跑到国外去。 更关键的是国内楼市太 " 渴 " 了。 1-8 月房企到位资金降了 8% ，个人按揭贷款跌了 10.5% ， ...

现在为了卖个房子，都荒唐到什么地步了。 房产中介竟然培训"演员"，轮番给房东施压，339万的房子被砍到280万，538万的房子被演到510万，一场戏就能白捡几十万。 我们来看这段话："你尽量讲优点，缺点的话，可以讲一到两点，因为讲多了，房东可能认为是演员。" 这两天，上海房产中介的套路被曝光，中介招募职业看房人，每场演出能挣200元。 这些经过培训的群演不仅点评装修挑刺户型，还要轮番给房东施压，让房东主动降价。 一名中介工作人员透露，他每天需要带15个客户看房，这是公司的要求，通过这种方式，他可以不断跟房东反馈价格，加速成交。 一套挂牌价339万元的房子，同户型市场成交价为285万元，中介却让演员从280万元开始报价。 然而，二手房市场的买卖双方博弈却在加剧。 据中介内部人员透露， 假带看 现象的背后是严格的KPI考核，在部分中介机构内部，每日15组带看量的硬性考核指标，为了完成任务、获取绩效，他们不得不走上造假捷径。 上海市房地产经纪行业协会已连夜约谈二十多家相关企业，要求头部机构启动内部核查。 当房东听到这个价格大吃一惊后，中介会指导演员假装出去打电话和家人商量，实际上是被通知可以加点价。 就这样，在精心 ...

豪宅撑起市场 撰文｜包晶晶 编辑｜陈梦妤 封面图源｜包晶晶 其中，得益于新开盘项目认购水平提升及在售项目销售放量，一手住房成交55万平方米，环比增加28%、同比增14%；二手住房成交1.8万套，环比增加 3%、同比增加27%。 上海楼市在分化中走过"金九"，全力冲刺"银十"，有的楼盘算不上市中心，但顶着"10万+"的价格5个月卖了超过1000套；也有同样区位的新盘，开盘至今 网签率仅12.6%。 "前9个月上海市场表现还不错，新房量稳价升，二手房成交量也稳住了。市场一直处在调整过程中，成交量上能有这样的表现，新政还是有所发力 的。"上海中原地产市场分析师卢文曦在接受每经记者采访时表示。 注：8月26日，上海针对限购、信贷、公积金等六个方面优化楼市调控政策（沪六条），这是上海今年首次系统性调整房地产政策。 新房重现豪宅单次网签过百套 "今年生意还行，虽然和前两年相比肯定不好做。" 2025年的上海楼市，开局即冲刺。 头部房企加速供货，2024年11月底诞生的溢价40%新杨思"地王"（案名翡云悦府），仅两个多月后就把展厅开进了山姆会员店和中高端商场，随后便是一 连串紧锣密鼓的销售动作。9月27日开盘期间，翡云悦府 ...

在中指研究院深圳分院高级分析师孙红梅看来，此次深圳楼市新政核心区福田、南山虽限购政策保留， 但单身购房资格放宽，推动前海、宝中片区刚需入市。非核心区取消社保限制、房贷利率下调，取消企 业购房限制后，部分项目临深客户占比攀升，龙岗、光明等区域出现"跨城购房团"。"此次新政通过分 区调控、成本降低、资格扩容的组合拳，在短期内显著激活市场，非核心区域量价齐升、核心区域温和 回暖。政策精准切中深圳楼市'外围去库存、核心稳预期'的痛点，预计将为金九银十楼市旺季奠定基 础。" 从全国市场来看，中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶表示，2025年以来新房市场整体运行平稳，但二 季度以来销售有所转弱，9月供应改善带动销售略有修复。二手房市场持续"以价换量"，前三季度重点 城市二手住宅成交套数累计同比保持增长，其中经过6至8月阶段性降温后，9月二手房成交量同环比均 出现回升。 自9月5日深圳推出楼市新政之后，市场热度有所上升。 10月1日，深圳乐有家研究中心公布的数据显示，9月深圳一二手住宅网签总量为7633套，环比上涨 20.7%，同比上涨38.3%。其中，一手住宅网签3087套，环比上涨43.5%，同比上涨32.7%；二手住宅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent policy optimizations in the real estate sector across various Chinese cities, highlighting measures aimed at stimulating housing demand and stabilizing the market, particularly in the context of the upcoming National Day holiday [1][5][10]. Group 1: Policy Measures - Wuhan's "Han Eight Articles" includes eight measures such as increasing housing provident fund loan limits, enhancing subsidies for rigid housing demand, and optimizing home purchase residency procedures [1][5]. - Guangzhou and Changchun have also announced optimizations to their housing provident fund policies, including lowering the minimum down payment ratio for new homes from 20% to 15% in Changchun [1][5]. - Other cities like Hefei and Dongguan have released favorable policies to support the housing market, with a focus on stabilizing prices and boosting demand [1][5]. Group 2: Market Context - The article notes that the end of September has seen a steady release of housing policies, with many cities expected to continue this trend as the market enters a traditional peak season for real estate sales [1][10]. - Historical patterns indicate that significant real estate policies are often announced before the National Day holiday, suggesting a strong expectation for further policy adjustments [9][10]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts predict that there will be more measures aimed at stabilizing the housing market, with a focus on structural adjustments and targeted policies for specific housing types [11]. - The Central Bank's recent shift towards a rate-cutting cycle may provide additional room for domestic monetary policy, potentially leading to more supportive measures for the real estate sector in the fourth quarter [11].

Core Insights - The new housing policy implemented in Shenzhen on September 5 has significantly stimulated various housing demands, leading to a rebound in the real estate market [1] - The policy has resulted in a notable increase in both second-hand and new housing transactions, with specific areas experiencing substantial growth [1][2] Market Performance - The Shenzhen Real Estate Association reported that the number of second-hand homes sold reached 1,554 units last week, reflecting a 15.4% increase compared to the previous week [1] - The average daily signing volume for second-hand homes increased by 34% on weekdays and 41% on weekends compared to July and August [1] - New home subscriptions also saw a rise, with a 30% increase on weekdays and 38% on weekends during the same period [1] Buyer Sentiment - Over 35.8% of surveyed respondents indicated an increase in their willingness to purchase homes, showing a positive shift in buyer confidence [3] - More than 20% of respondents noted an increase in inquiries from out-of-town clients, suggesting the policy's effectiveness in attracting external buyers [3] Policy Impact - The survey conducted by the Shenzhen Real Estate Association revealed that over half of the respondents believe that the policy adjustments, such as the relaxation of purchase restrictions in certain areas, have the most significant impact on the market [2] - The combination of zoning adjustments, cost reductions, and expanded eligibility is expected to stabilize the market and support a healthy development trajectory [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent government policies aimed at stimulating the housing market have sparked widespread attention, with a notable example being Guangxi's financial subsidy of 120 million yuan for new home purchases from September 15 to October 31, 2023, raising questions about its effectiveness in reversing market trends [2] Group 1: Policy Signals - The government's approach has shifted from broad market stimulation to targeted support for genuine housing needs, moving away from high-leverage growth models [3] - The introduction of the 120 million yuan subsidy is seen as a temporary measure to support a sluggish market rather than a long-term solution [3] Group 2: Market Signals - A "K-shaped" market differentiation is emerging, where high-quality properties continue to appreciate while lower-quality, less desirable properties face declining values [6] - Data from August 2025 indicates that over 60% of new home prices in 70 major cities have decreased, with only a few cities experiencing slight increases [6] - For instance, in Q1 2025, new homes in Shenzhen's Nanshan area saw a 12% price increase, while a city in Northeast China experienced a 23.5% drop in second-hand home prices [6] Group 3: Changing Perspectives - A growing number of young people, such as a 00s generation individual from Yulin, are opting to rent rather than buy, reflecting a shift in attitudes towards homeownership as a necessity for marriage [4][8] - The average cost of a suitable wedding home in Yulin is around 800,000 yuan, with monthly mortgage payments significantly higher than rental costs, leading to a preference for renting [8] Group 4: Development Models - The traditional "sprawling" new city development model is becoming less viable, with a focus shifting towards optimizing existing land use and enhancing living quality [9] - The national residential land supply plan for 2025 indicates a 20% decrease in supply, particularly in second-tier cities, emphasizing the need for efficient land utilization [9]

Core Insights - The recent changes in the payment process for foreign investors in the real estate market have simplified transactions, allowing payments to be made upon signing contracts, with subsequent registration [1] - The policy change is aimed at improving efficiency rather than loosening restrictions, maintaining strict entry rules for foreign buyers [3] Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy provides a more straightforward payment process for compliant foreign buyers, while still enforcing existing restrictions on property purchases [3] - The focus is on attracting genuine demand rather than speculative investments, with measures in place to prevent market overheating [4] Group 2: Market Impact - Concerns about foreign investment driving up property prices are mitigated by the relatively small scale of foreign capital compared to the overall market, with significant inventory available [3] - Foreign investors are shifting their focus from residential properties to long-term rental opportunities in commercial real estate, indicating a change in investment strategy [3][4] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Core urban areas with quality assets are expected to see increased demand, but a broad price increase across the market is unlikely [4] - The market is characterized by a clear distinction between high-demand areas and those with excess inventory, with foreign investment primarily targeting scarce, high-value properties [4]

他指出，未来几个月新盘反应继续会比二手盘好，新盘开价亦相当吸引，部分发展商为买家提供财务计 划及回赠，变相降低买家入市门槛。他预计香港楼价于2025年余下时间仍会在谷底反复徘徊，全年楼价 下跌0-3%，而明年有望回升半成。楼市机调会慢慢向好，但现时由于货尾量仍然高，楼价没有条件大 幅回升。 智通财经APP获悉，莱坊高级董事，大中华区研究及咨询部主管王兆麒表示，美国9月议息宣布减息 0.25%，料年内再减息0.25%，高息环境对香港楼市影响将会逐渐放缓。然而，由于自2022年起已累积 一定升幅，市场需要时间释放购买力，短期内市场仍然没有充足的购买力，但相信楼价在2025年会见 底。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the 8.25 policy aims to stimulate the Shanghai real estate market, particularly during the traditional peak sales period of "Golden September and Silver October," by easing restrictions and providing financial incentives to buyers [3][8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Response - After the implementation of the 8.25 policy, Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions reached 19,912 units in August, a month-on-month increase of 2.97% and a year-on-year growth of 11.34% [3]. - New housing projects in the outer ring, such as Poly Haishangyin and Jinmao Tang, experienced immediate sales success, indicating a localized surge in demand [4]. Policy Details - The 8.25 policy includes three main components: relaxation of purchase restrictions in the outer ring, optimization of public housing fund policies, and adjustments to property tax regulations [6]. - Key changes include the removal of purchase limits for eligible residents in the outer ring, a 15% increase in public housing loan limits, and the introduction of tax exemptions for first-time buyers [6][8]. Market Conditions - The policy was introduced in response to a declining market characterized by falling prices and extended transaction cycles, with second-hand housing prices dropping for seven consecutive months [8][11]. - The average price of second-hand homes in Shanghai fell to 46,738 yuan per square meter in September, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.79% and a year-on-year decline of 9.17% [11]. Regional Dynamics - The outer ring market shows signs of increased activity, but underlying pressures remain, with many sellers willing to lower prices to facilitate sales [11][17]. - In contrast, the inner ring market demonstrates stability due to its limited supply and high demand, maintaining its value amidst broader market fluctuations [18][20]. Implications for Buyers and Sellers - The new policy creates a favorable environment for first-time buyers, significantly lowering entry barriers and encouraging purchases in high-potential areas [25][27]. - Sellers in the outer ring are advised to adjust their pricing strategies to remain competitive, especially as new housing options become more attractive [25][27]. Broader Market Context - The 8.25 policy is seen as a targeted measure to alleviate high inventory levels in the outer ring while avoiding overheating in core areas [8][22]. - The surrounding regions, such as Suzhou, are experiencing challenges as they respond to Shanghai's policy changes, indicating a potential shift in demand dynamics [22][24].