（来源：深圳房产在线） 时下最能创造暴富神话的比特币，今年也传来噩耗。 比特币最终在11月跌破94000美元，已经抹去了今年的所有涨幅，并且24小时内，全球加密货币超15万人爆仓。 而反观深圳楼市，更是抹去了10年的所有涨幅，如年积压的泡沫已经逐步消散。 来源：市场资讯 2015年的楼市盛况，可谓是深圳楼市载入史册的一年，呈现"量价齐飞"的态势。 根据市规划国土委统计数据，2015年深圳新房成交均价33426元/平方米，同比上涨39.4%，其中2015年11月，新房价格达到44761元/平方米，创下当时 的历史新高。 新房成交量方面，全年新房成交66450套，同比大增58.7%；成交金额2225.8亿元，相当于每天成交6.1亿元。 二手房市场同样火爆，全年二手住宅成交126899套，房价涨幅高达59%，并实现了连涨15个月的纪录。 而谁能想到，十年后房价竟然再次回归。 关于十年间跌幅情况，咖姐在之前的文章中介绍了2025年深圳跌幅情况，部分小区较楼市高峰期已跌穿50%，甚至达到60%。 最新市场数据显示，深圳整体房价已回落至2016年2-3月水平，几乎完全抹去了2015年那一轮涨幅。 南山区作为深圳的产业核心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment, aligning with Jack Ma's prediction that housing prices will become more affordable, akin to the price of green onions [1][3]. Market Trends - In the first half of this year, the national sales area of commercial housing was 479 million square meters, a substantial year-on-year decrease of 19% [3]. - The sales revenue dropped to 4.71 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 25% [3]. - As of July 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 14,653 yuan per square meter, continuing a trend of month-on-month declines for 27 consecutive months [3]. Government Policies - Since 2016, the government has implemented numerous measures to cool the overheated real estate market, including purchase restrictions, loan limits, and increased mortgage rates [5]. - In 2021 alone, there were 650 regulatory measures targeting the real estate market, marking a pivotal year for the sector [5]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has announced plans for a "major adjustment" in the real estate market starting in 2024, focusing on controlling price increases, optimizing supply-demand relationships, and enhancing financial regulation [7]. Impact on Stakeholders - Speculative investors, or "炒房客," are facing significant challenges as the market enters a prolonged adjustment phase, with many unable to divest from multiple properties amid falling prices [10]. - Real estate developers are under severe pressure due to high debt levels, with many exceeding an 80% debt ratio, leading to restricted financing options and potential liquidity crises [12]. - Second-hand property owners are struggling to sell their homes, with increasing listings making it difficult to achieve sales without significant price reductions of 20% to 30% [12]. - Local governments and related industries are also affected, as declining real estate activity impacts land finance revenues, necessitating a shift away from reliance on the real estate sector [14].

Core Viewpoint - The property market in Guangzhou is experiencing significant price declines, particularly in previously popular developments like Lanting Shenghui, which has seen a nearly 60% drop in price per square meter, leading to substantial losses for investors [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Decline in Lanting Shenghui - Lanting Shenghui's price per square meter fell from 84,000 yuan to 37,000 yuan, representing a decrease of nearly 60% [1]. - In 2022, a 64-square-meter unit sold for 5.48 million yuan, with a price per square meter of 84,000 yuan, while recent transactions show similar units selling for only 256,000 yuan, or 37,446 yuan per square meter, indicating a loss of nearly 3 million yuan in value [4][5]. Group 2: Overall Market Trends in Guangzhou - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in September, Guangzhou's new home prices fell by 4.1% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices dropped by 6% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, indicating a widening decline in the second-hand market [6][8]. - During the National Day holiday, new home transactions in Guangzhou increased by 26.4% year-on-year, but the overall market showed signs of cooling, with a significant drop in second-hand home transactions [13][14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Buyer Sentiment - The decline in buyer confidence is attributed to previous policy relaxations and current market conditions, leading to a cautious approach among potential buyers [14][19]. - Areas experiencing the most significant price drops include peripheral and suburban regions, where supply has outpaced demand due to slow infrastructure development [15][19]. Group 4: Characteristics of Affected Properties - Properties facing severe price corrections often have inherent issues such as poor location, inadequate amenities, and outdated designs, which are becoming more pronounced in a buyer's market [19]. - The market is witnessing a shift in buyer preferences, with younger buyers favoring newer properties with better access to transportation over older, less desirable units [17][19].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Overview - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with key metrics showing alarming declines, marking the largest drop since 2021 [2] - National real estate development investment has seen a substantial year-on-year decrease, remaining in negative growth since April of the previous year [2] - Land sales revenue has halved compared to the peak in 2021, leading to a drastic reduction in developers' willingness to acquire land [2] Group 2: Sales and Pricing Trends - New housing sales, both in terms of area and revenue, are continuously declining, with no regions spared from this trend [2] - The once-promising "golden September and silver October" sales period has lost its luster, with home prices experiencing widespread declines [2] - The second-hand housing market is struggling, with sellers forced to lower prices to attract buyers [2] Group 3: Government Response - In response to the market downturn, major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have implemented policies to stimulate the market, but the effectiveness has been limited as of September [4] Group 4: Changing Demand Dynamics - The demand structure has shifted, with wealthy individuals refraining from purchases, middle-class consumers hesitant due to economic uncertainty, and ordinary people unable to afford high prices [7] - Younger generations are increasingly unwilling to compromise their future for high housing costs, preferring to invest in lifestyle rather than property [9] - Residents' leverage has reached its limit, with many families already stretched thin financially, making it difficult to take on additional debt for home purchases [11] Group 5: Demographic Trends - A noticeable trend of population decline is emerging, leading to reduced housing demand as empty properties accumulate [13] Group 6: Economic Context - Despite the real estate slump, the overall macroeconomic environment remains stable, with GDP growth reaching 5.2% in the first three quarters, surpassing market expectations [14] - Consumption has been a significant driver of economic growth, contributing over half to the overall performance [14] Group 7: Future Outlook - The path to a rebound in the real estate market requires finding a new balance between economic growth, public income, and housing prices, which may take considerable time and effort [15]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with various opinions emerging regarding its future trajectory. Notably, entrepreneur Cao Dewang has pointed out that the intrinsic value of real estate is overestimated, predicting inevitable price declines if current trends continue [1][3]. Market Trends - Since 2022, the number of cities experiencing falling housing prices has been on the rise. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, as of November, 51 out of 70 major cities saw a year-on-year decline in new residential sales prices, while 64 cities reported a drop in second-hand housing prices. Even first-tier cities are witnessing a comprehensive price drop, with only a few second-tier cities like Changsha and Chengdu maintaining stable prices [3]. Causes of Decline - The decline in the real estate market can be attributed to two main factors. First, the repeated impact of the pandemic and a sluggish economy have led to widespread layoffs and salary cuts, resulting in lower income expectations and diminished purchasing intent among buyers. This shrinking market demand has directly contributed to price adjustments. Second, the overall cooling of the real estate market has prompted speculators to sell off properties, with the number of second-hand homes listed for sale in key cities exceeding 100,000 units as of October, including 250,000 in Chongqing and over 130,000 in Beijing [5]. Government Response - In response to the market downturn, local governments are implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market. These include lifting restrictions on purchases and sales, providing cash subsidies to buyers, and relaxing housing fund loan limits. Additionally, banks have reduced the interest rates on first-time home loans from 5.8% to 4.2% and lowered the down payment ratio from 30% to 20%. The central bank has also eased financing restrictions for developers, allowing them to raise funds through bonds, equity, and loans [7]. Diverging Opinions - Market participants are divided in their perspectives. Proponents of the market believe that the current favorable policies present an excellent opportunity to buy at the bottom, anticipating a rebound in housing prices. Conversely, skeptics argue that the downward trend is established, warning that purchasing now could lead to significant losses in five years, similar to the experiences of buyers in the Beijing suburban area in late 2017, where prices fell by 50% or more [9].

Core Insights - The housing market in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai has seen a rebound in new home sales prices following the removal of purchase restrictions in August, with Shanghai and Hangzhou leading the price increases [2][3] - Despite the price increases in new homes, the overall real estate market remains under pressure, with significant declines in both sales volume and investment [2][5] - The trend of "price for volume" continues to dominate the second-hand housing market, with a notable increase in transactions despite falling prices [5][11] Data Analysis - In the first nine months of the year, national real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [2] - New residential sales area was 65,835 million square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year, with sales revenue of 63,040 billion yuan, a decline of 7.9% [2] - The sales revenue for new residential properties is projected to fall below 10 trillion yuan for the first time in 2024, estimated at 9,675 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1% [2] Market Trends - In September, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, but Beijing and Shanghai saw increases of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively [3][6] - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities experienced a 1.0% decline in prices, with all major cities reporting decreases [3][5] - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased from 5 to 8, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [12] Land Market - Private enterprises have increased their presence in the land market, particularly in Guangzhou, where they accounted for 25% of residential land transactions in the first three quarters [8] - The land market shows a divergence in heat, with high premium rates in core urban areas indicating a recovery in developer confidence [9] Future Predictions - The market is expected to stabilize as the inventory reduction cycle accelerates, with a projected decrease in new home prices but a potential narrowing of declines in second-hand home prices [11][12] - The trend of "price for volume" is likely to continue in non-core areas and smaller cities, while core cities may see a more stable price environment due to policy support [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The future of housing prices in China over the next 3-5 years is expected to show moderate adjustments rather than significant declines, influenced by the attitudes of the government, developers, and homebuyers [1][12]. Government Attitude - The government has clearly defined its stance on the real estate market, emphasizing that housing is for living, not speculation, aiming to prevent both sharp price increases and decreases [1][3]. - In the first half of 2025, 85% of 300 cities implemented policies to stabilize the housing market, including easing purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios [3][4]. - The government's approach is focused on stability, indicating that the likelihood of a drastic drop in housing prices in the next few years is low [3][6]. Developer Attitude - Developers are experiencing a gradual recovery, with a reported 5.2% year-on-year increase in national commercial housing sales area from January to May 2025, marking the first positive growth since 2022 [4][6]. - The average debt-to-asset ratio of the top 100 real estate companies decreased from 78% in 2023 to 72% in 2025, indicating improved financial health [4][7]. - Developers are shifting their strategies to prioritize profit and cash flow over aggressive sales, suggesting they are unlikely to engage in significant price cuts [6][8]. Homebuyer Attitude - The homebuyer sentiment index rose to 65.3 in the first half of 2025, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from the same period in 2024, indicating a growing willingness to purchase homes [6][8]. - The debt-to-income ratio for households decreased to 62.3% in the first quarter of 2025, down 3.5 percentage points from the end of 2023, reflecting reduced financial pressure and improving purchasing power [7][8]. - Homebuyers are increasingly focusing on the intrinsic value of housing for living rather than as an investment, which is expected to lead to a healthier pricing mechanism in the market [8][12]. Market Outlook - The housing market is anticipated to experience regional differentiation, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities likely to stabilize and recover, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to face downward pressure [8][12]. - Price fluctuations are expected to be moderate, with annual changes likely to remain within 5% due to the government's stabilizing policies [8][12]. - Overall, the market is becoming more rational, with a shift away from speculative buying towards a focus on housing as a necessity [8][12].

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is undergoing a significant adjustment, aligning with predictions made by Jack Ma in 2017 that housing prices would become more affordable, akin to the price of green onions [1][3]. Market Performance - In the first half of this year, the total sales area of commercial housing in China was 4.79 trillion square meters, representing a substantial year-on-year decline of 19% [3]. - The sales revenue plummeted to 4.71 trillion yuan, marking a dramatic year-on-year drop of 25% [3]. - As of July 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 14,653 yuan per square meter, continuing a downward trend for 27 consecutive months [3]. Government Policies - Since 2016, the government has implemented extensive measures to cool the overheated real estate market, including purchase restrictions, loan limits, and increased mortgage rates [5]. - In 2021 alone, there were approximately 650 regulatory measures targeting the real estate sector [5]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has announced plans for a "major adjustment" in the real estate market starting in 2024, focusing on controlling price increases and optimizing supply-demand relationships [7]. Impact on Stakeholders - Speculators holding multiple properties are facing significant risks due to ongoing price declines and potential increases in property tax trials [9][10]. - Developers are under pressure due to high debt levels, with many facing financing restrictions and potential cash flow issues as sales decline [13]. - Second-hand property owners are struggling to sell their properties, with rising inventory making it increasingly difficult to liquidate assets without substantial price reductions [13]. - Local governments are likely to see reduced land finance income, prompting a need to diversify revenue sources, including the potential introduction of property taxes [14]. Consumer Considerations - First-time homebuyers are encouraged to assess their financial capabilities carefully, as mortgage payments should ideally not exceed 30% of household income to avoid financial strain [12][15].

Core Insights - The recent policy changes are expected to lead to a decrease in transaction volume and price adjustments, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of apartment prices in Seoul [2] - The weekly growth rate of apartment prices in Seoul is projected to drop below 0.1% in the coming month due to restrictions on leveraged investments, increased taxes for multiple property owners, and higher mortgage thresholds [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Experts express concerns that the policy may exacerbate regional price disparities, with high-priced areas experiencing price increases while suburban areas stagnate [2] - The long-term reduction in housing supply could drive prices up, while the rental market may face pressure due to mortgage restrictions and bans on leveraged investments [2] Group 2: Regional Price Trends - Areas such as Gangnam, Yongsan, and Seongdong, which are characterized by cash-rich buyers and lower reliance on loans, are expected to see price increases [2] - In contrast, suburban areas that previously experienced lower price increases are likely to face significant stagnation, leading to a stark urban-rural divide [2] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - If policies restrict transactions, such as only allowing the transfer of rights among members in redevelopment apartments, a sharp decline in transaction volume may occur [2] - A decrease in supply could limit the extent of price declines, and when the market recovers, there may be a tendency for prices to rise [2]

Core Insights - Since the launch of real estate market reforms in China in 1998, average housing prices have surged from 2,000 yuan per square meter to a peak of 11,000 yuan, marking a 5.5-fold increase, while living conditions have improved significantly with per capita housing area rising from 6-7 square meters to 39 square meters [1] - The continuous rise in real estate prices has outpaced residents' income levels, leading many families to struggle with homeownership, often resulting in substantial mortgage burdens [3] - An independent economist has stated that the era of real estate as the best investment in China has ended, suggesting that properties will increasingly return to their primary function as residences [5] Market Trends - As of September 2023, the trend of declining housing prices has become more pronounced, with 99 cities experiencing price drops, and over 90 cities seeing declines for four consecutive months [6] - Government policies have been implemented to cool the housing market, including the cancellation of purchase and sale restrictions, as well as reductions in mortgage rates to 4% and down payments to 20% [6] Future Outlook - The current value of a property priced at 1.5 million yuan may not only stagnate but could decline, as future property values will increasingly depend on local residents' income levels rather than speculation [7] - Several key factors contribute to the expectation of declining property values: - A significant imbalance between supply and demand, with 600 million existing homes capable of housing 3 billion people, and 96% of families already owning at least one property [9] - The prevalence of unfinished projects has eroded buyer confidence, as many real estate companies face financial difficulties due to a sluggish market [11] - The shrinking demand from first-time homebuyers due to urbanization reaching 64%, an aging population, declining marriage rates among younger generations, and a significant drop in newborn numbers [11]