如何看光模块未来几年增长空间？20260108 摘要 光模块行业受益于数据中心升级和 AI 大模型需求，800G 光模块增量主 要来自 AI 应用。SKU 层互联需求增加，高速光模块需求呈指数级增长， 预计 2025-2028 年行业保持高增长。 海外大厂如谷歌、英伟达采用 Skyop 设计，增加光连接需求。谷歌预计 2026 年展示机柜内光互联方案，英伟达或稍晚。高密度机柜内部及 Skill Up 层之间将大量使用高速光模块。 硅光集成方案、LPO 等技术路径市场份额将提升。2025 年硅光在单模 光模块中占比 20%-30%，预计 2026 年翻倍至 40%-50%，主要因 800G 硅光产品成熟及 100G EML 芯片紧缺。 LPO 适用于小应用推理场景，LRO 和 TRO 通过定制化设计降低整体链 路功耗，适用于特定连接场景。这些定制化互联解决方案将在未来批量 应用于特定连接场景。 英伟达和博通积极推动 CPO 方案，但共封装结构导致维修复杂且成本高 昂，限制大规模应用。NPU 通过集成光模块缩短电信号传输距离，头部 厂商已开始研发。 Q&A 2026 年和 2027 年光模块行业的增长趋势如何？ ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state and future outlook of the data center optical communication industry, focusing on high-end optical module demand and technological advancements in silicon photonics and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **High-End Optical Module Demand Forecast**: - 400G demand is expected to be between 5 million to 10 million units, 800G around 20 million units, and 1.6T approximately 4 million units for 2026. This forecast contrasts with overly optimistic market expectations [1]. - **Global AIDC Capital Expenditure**: - Estimated at $300 billion for 2025, with a projected growth of 30%-60% in 2026, reaching between $400 billion to $480 billion. Optical modules account for about 3% of total data center investment [1][4]. - **Domestic Market Dynamics**: - The domestic market primarily focuses on 400G modules, with limited 800G demand mainly for Southeast Asian data centers. The actual demand for high-end optical modules is constrained by the limited availability of legal GPU units and NVIDIA product supply [1][7]. - **Supply Chain Challenges**: - The supply chain faces significant challenges, including tight supply of optical chips (VIXEL, EML), monopolization in silicon photonics, limited production capacity of optical components, and reliance on imported high-end manufacturing equipment [1][8][20]. - **Silicon Photonics Technology**: - Mainly used for silicon photonic modulators, it competes with EML technology. The penetration rate for 800G silicon photonics is low, while 1.6T is higher. However, the commercialization of 3.2T single-channel 400G silicon photonics remains challenging [1][11][12]. - **CPO vs. NPO Technology**: - CPO's high-density design leads to high costs and low reliability, while NPO is seen as a more practical intermediate solution. The push for high integration CPU solutions by companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom poses challenges for smaller firms [3][19][26]. Additional Important Insights - **Production and Quality Control Challenges**: - The manufacturing of optical modules is complex, with a yield rate of 50%-80% for 800G laser modules, necessitating extensive rework and high human resource demands [13]. - **Future of 1.6T and 800G Modules**: - Both are expected to face supply-demand tensions, with 1.6T VIXEL supply nearly non-existent and EML supply also limited [9]. - **Impact of Power System Saturation**: - The saturation of the U.S. power system and slow infrastructure development may limit future data center expansion, despite available capital for GPU and optical module purchases [4]. - **Domestic Manufacturers' Opportunities**: - Domestic manufacturers can produce most components for optical modules, but DSP production still relies on foreign suppliers. The potential for domestic silicon photonics and optical components to achieve full localization within two to three years is noted [20][21]. - **Fiber Optics vs. Copper Wire**: - The feasibility of replacing copper wire with fiber optics for internal data center connections is acknowledged, given fiber's superior transmission capabilities, although reliability issues with fiber optics need to be addressed [22][23]. - **Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape**: - The market is characterized by significant influence from major cloud providers, which can dictate technology choices and limit options for smaller companies [25]. - **Future Trends in Optical Sources**: - The current trend favors EML technology, with a focus on high-power optical sources. The market is expected to evolve with increasing demand for 100G, 200G, and 400G specifications [29][30]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape and future outlook of the optical communication industry.