Group 1 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is accelerating the mercury-free transformation in the PVC industry, focusing on the development of mercury-free catalysts [1] - The transition to mercury-free production requires significant one-time capital expenditure, which may force some small and high-cost producers to exit the market, leading to a contraction in supply and an improvement in the overall supply-demand balance [1] - As of January 28, PVC prices were at 4,615 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -111.5 yuan/ton, indicating that prices and price differences are at the 4.3% and 13.6% percentiles since 2016 [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to see a cyclical turning point by 2026, with supply remaining tight under the third-generation refrigerant quota policy, benefiting leading companies like Juhua Co., Ltd. [2] - The industry is experiencing a recovery from its bottom, with companies like Baofeng Energy and New Chemical Materials showing differentiated performance due to new capacity releases or product price support [2] - Public funds have significantly increased their allocation to the chemical sector in Q4 2025, with a focus on leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The "Minamata Convention" is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated acetylene-based PVC production capacity, which is a key focus of the convention [4][21] - The domestic PVC production capacity is projected to reach 29.11 million tons/year by the end of 2024, with acetylene-based PVC accounting for 21.64 million tons/year, representing 74% of the total capacity [22] - The demand for mercury-free catalysts is anticipated to grow due to the ongoing implementation of the Minamata Convention, leading to an improved industry landscape [4][22] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.61% this week [16] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) reported a decrease of 1.2% [18] Key Product Tracking - The polyester filament market is experiencing a downward trend, with POY prices averaging 6,520 CNY/ton, down 113 CNY/ton from last week [27] - The viscose staple fiber market remains stable, with prices holding steady at 13,100 CNY/ton [30] Industry News - LG Chem announced plans to close its HDPE plant in South Korea, reflecting a strategic shift towards high-growth areas such as battery materials and environmental solutions [5][16] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical [6] - Beneficiary stocks from the mercury-free catalyst segment include Kaili New Materials and from the PVC segment include Jiahua Energy and Chlor-alkali Chemical [4][22]