日本股指期货

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日本政局剧变,日元、日股期货为何走高?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-21 06:47
Core Viewpoint - Despite the ruling coalition of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing its majority in the House of Councillors election, the Japanese yen and stock index futures unexpectedly rose [1][4]. Group 1: Election Results and Market Reaction - The LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, lost their majority in the House of Councillors for the first time since the LDP's establishment in 1955 [1]. - Following the election results, Japanese stock index futures rose unexpectedly, and the yen appreciated by 0.7% against the US dollar before narrowing its gains [1]. - Market analysts noted that investors had anticipated the LDP's loss but the actual results were milder than expected, alleviating fears of severe political turmoil [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Positioning - Prior to the election, the yen had declined for two consecutive weeks, and even risk-tolerant hedge funds paused their bets on Japanese assets [4]. - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported that as of July 11, commodity trading advisors still held significant long positions in the yen, indicating that market positioning did not fully reflect the anticipated election outcome [4]. - Bank of America noted that hedge funds bought yen against the euro between July 14-16, suggesting profit-taking actions [6]. Group 3: Key Variables Influencing Future Market Trends - The future price movements will depend on three factors: whether the LDP retains or loses its coalition majority, whether Prime Minister Kishida remains in office, and the outcome of any leadership elections if Kishida resigns [9]. - If Kishida resigns, the market may consider the risks associated with the subsequent leadership election, potentially leading to further yen depreciation and increased volatility [9]. - Conversely, if Kishida remains and seeks to expand the coalition with compatible parties, it may alleviate concerns over pro-cyclical fiscal policies, initially pushing the USD/JPY rate down to around 148 [9]. Group 4: Long-term Political Uncertainty - Analysts from Bank of America maintain a bearish outlook on the yen, suggesting that any short-term rebounds should be viewed as opportunities to sell [9]. - Even if the LDP retains a majority, any rebound in the yen may be temporary due to ongoing political uncertainties, especially during the upcoming autumn parliamentary session [9]. - Nomura previously indicated that the loss of majority seats could lead to a dual policy of consumption tax cuts and cash subsidies, which might boost the economy in the short term but could result in a significant economic downturn once these policies expire [9].