Summary of the Express Delivery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The express delivery industry experienced a growth rate of 21.6% in Q1, but dropped below 20% in April due to ongoing price wars. The competition is primarily concentrated in the central and northern regions of China, while traditional grain-producing areas maintain stable prices [1][3][5]. - Major companies like Shentong (申通) and YTO Express (圆通) have shown strong performance, with Shentong achieving a 19% increase in single ticket revenue in April, surpassing the industry average [1][7]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Price Stability and Competition**: Shentong has demonstrated remarkable price stability, with its franchisees showing resilience and actively capturing market share without excessive support from headquarters. This contrasts with other companies where franchisees lack motivation to seize market share [1][7]. - **Cost Control Strategies**: Companies are optimizing core costs such as transit and trunk transportation to cope with price competition. Yunda (运达) has achieved a historical low cost of 0.62 yuan per ticket, which is the lowest in the industry [1][8]. - **Single Ticket Delivery Fees**: Delivery fees have gradually decreased with the growth in business volume, but the extent of decline varies among companies. Shentong's delivery fees remained stable in Q1, validating its strategy of balancing profit and growth [1][9]. - **Capital Expenditure Disparities**: There is a divergence in capital expenditures among express delivery companies, with Zhongtong (中通) and YTO maintaining strong investments, indicating potential shifts in market share post-2025 [1][10]. Additional Important Points - **Market Sentiment and Stock Performance**: The overall market sentiment remains low, with stock prices of major companies declining despite Shentong's positive performance in Q1. SF Express (顺丰) has shown relative resilience due to its franchise model [2][13]. - **Regional Price Variations**: Prices in traditional grain-producing areas have not decreased significantly, while central and northern regions have seen substantial price drops, with some provinces experiencing growth rates of 30%-40% [6]. - **Future Industry Trends**: The express delivery industry is expected to face challenges in the upcoming months, with potential growth rates dropping to around 15% during the peak season. Companies may resort to price policies to enhance capacity utilization [14][15]. - **Impact of New Regulations**: New regulations are expected to influence the logistics industry significantly, promoting high-quality development and potentially providing government subsidies to leading companies [19][21]. Conclusion The express delivery industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by price wars, varying performance among companies, and significant regional differences. Companies that effectively manage costs and maintain price stability, like Shentong and YTO, are likely to emerge stronger in the evolving market. The anticipated changes in capital expenditure and regulatory environment will also play a crucial role in shaping the industry's future dynamics.

以下文章来源于有数DataVision ，作者严张攀 有数DataVision . 数据表象与商业真相 2024年，极兔中国区平均客单价下滑了大约7%，但依靠对成本更加有效的管理措施，不仅公司扭亏为 盈，单票息税前利润也终于转正，来到了 0.007 美元。 作为中国快递史上的最强黑马，极兔的冲突性来自两点。 一是极兔在通达系厮杀最激烈的时期进入中国市场，但反而在高烈度的价格战中收获了最大的战果。 二是极兔在中国扭亏为盈，反而凸显了快递公司在中国面临的残酷竞争。 2024年，极兔中国区的送件量比东南亚地区多出了足足152亿件，但东南亚市场的经调整息税前利润， 比国内高出一倍有余。 如果新能源车企业觉得自己在内卷，那么他可以看看快递。 增长的诅咒 快递创造了中国商业世界的两伊战争，两者的区别是两伊战争只打了八年。 一般来说，国内快递可以简单划分为两大类。 时效件 由顺丰和EMS主宰，上游是订单分散的个人和企业。由于建机场买飞机都需要行政审批，顺丰有 非常深的护城河。 电商件 则是通达系的天下，赚钱全靠低价走量。 两者最明显的差别是盈利能力。2024年，极兔在国内的送件量比顺丰多近50%。但在统一口径的 EBITI ...