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昆药集团(600422):业绩阶段性承压,看好下半年经营加速恢复
China Post Securities· 2025-09-10 07:43
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [9][15]. Core Views - The company is experiencing temporary pressure on its performance due to factors such as delayed implementation of centralized procurement, internal channel restructuring, and ongoing healthcare cost control policies. The first half of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 11.68% to 3.351 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 26.88% to 198 million yuan [3][4]. - Despite the challenges, there is optimism for a sales recovery in the second half of 2025, driven by the successful selection of the company's products in the national centralized procurement process and the expected execution of these results across multiple provinces [5][6]. - The company is focused on enhancing brand value and actively developing channels, with new product launches and strategic upgrades aimed at strengthening its market position [6]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's gross margin was 39.8%, down 4.3 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 5.9%, down 1.2 percentage points. The company’s operating cash flow also decreased by 22.2% to 219 million yuan [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 8.247 billion yuan, 9.007 billion yuan, and 9.839 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 617 million yuan, 741 million yuan, and 854 million yuan [7][9]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are projected to be 18, 15, and 13 times [9].