盈利预测：我们预计公司2025-2027 年营收分别为89.69、100.76、113.26 亿元，同比增速分别为 6.75%、12.34%、12.41%，归母净利润分别为7.17、8.65、10.43 亿元，同比增速分别为10.63%、 20.68%、20.54%，对应当前股价PE 分别为16、13、11 倍，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 点评： 1. 一季度业绩短期承压，后续业绩有望逐季度环比回升。25Q1 公司加速与华润三九的融合，重塑渠道 端销售模式，在此过程中面临阶段性压力，叠加零售药店终端整合等多重因素，致使业绩短期承压。随 着渠道协同效率、终端覆盖率及品牌产品渗透率的提升，借助大单品的带动作用，同时把握中成药集采 新标落地执行的机遇，公司将加速推进终端开发覆盖，我们看好协同多剂型和品牌优势驱动业绩回升。 2. 品牌建设助力业务发展，商道改革赋能终端覆盖。公司围绕"昆中药1381"品牌发展战略，在精品国药 领域聚焦参苓健脾胃颗粒、舒肝颗粒等大单品，借"全域媒体矩阵+精准场景营销"强化品牌定位并通过 多平台布局及合作扩大知名度；渠道建设方面，公司以"四力建设"推进商道改革，为终端覆盖与动销突 破提供基础。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in performance, with Q1 2025 revenue at 1.608 billion yuan, down 16.53% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 90 million yuan, down 31.06% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to the company's ongoing channel restructuring and transformation efforts, which are currently facing transitional pressures [6] - The company is expected to achieve sequential revenue and profit growth throughout 2025, with a projected double-digit increase in net profit for the year. This growth is anticipated as the company enhances channel efficiency and brand value through its restructuring efforts [6] - The company is actively promoting its brand renewal and has launched various marketing initiatives to enhance product visibility and reach, particularly targeting younger demographics through platforms like Xiaohongshu and Bilibili [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: 8.401 billion yuan in 2024, 8.826 billion yuan in 2025 (up 5.06%), 9.770 billion yuan in 2026 (up 10.69%), and 10.753 billion yuan in 2027 (up 10.06%) [2][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 648 million yuan in 2024 to 718 million yuan in 2025 (up 10.83%), 826 million yuan in 2026 (up 15.06%), and 962 million yuan in 2027 (up 16.39%) [2][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.86 yuan in 2024 to 0.95 yuan in 2025, 1.09 yuan in 2026, and 1.27 yuan in 2027 [2][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 17.94 in 2024 to 12.09 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over the forecast period [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Viewpoints - Despite short-term performance pressure due to channel transformation, the company is expected to benefit from product volume potential under the empowerment of China Resources Sanjiu, with an overall positive operational trend anticipated [4]. - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.61 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million RMB, down 31.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on brand development and product volume growth, particularly with its strategic products like "Kunzhong Medicine 1381" and "777 Xuesaitong Soft Capsules" [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.61 billion RMB, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million RMB, down 31.1% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to multiple factors, including channel transformation and the impact of national Chinese medicine procurement expansion [2]. Operational Analysis - The company is in the final phase of integration with China Resources Sanjiu, with further breakthroughs in channel transformation expected to enhance terminal coverage and performance in Q2 2025 [2]. - The focus on brand positioning as a "leading national medicine" and the emphasis on terminal coverage and sales are expected to drive healthy growth for core products [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 740 million RMB, 893 million RMB, and 1.072 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 21%, and 20% [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 0.98 RMB, 1.18 RMB, and 1.42 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company experienced a revenue decline of 16.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.61 billion RMB and a net profit of 90 million RMB, down 31.1% year-on-year [2]. - The integration with China Resources Sanjiu is in its final phase, and while short-term performance is under pressure due to channel transformation, there are expectations for improvement as new procurement standards are implemented in Q2 [2][4]. - The company is focusing on brand development and enhancing terminal coverage, particularly for key products like "Kunzhong Medicine 1381" and "777 Xuesaitong Soft Capsules," which are expected to see healthy growth [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.61 billion RMB, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million RMB, down 31.1% year-on-year [2]. - The decline is attributed to multiple factors, including channel transformation and the ongoing integration with China Resources Sanjiu [2]. Brand Development - The company is committed to its brand strategy, focusing on key products to strengthen its position as a leading national medicine brand [3]. - The launch of new packaging for "777 Xuesaitong" is expected to enhance brand recognition and drive sales growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 740 million RMB, 893 million RMB, and 1.072 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 21%, and 20% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.98 RMB, 1.18 RMB, and 1.42 RMB for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [4].