航空行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 航空业受波音和空客垄断，供给调整滞后于需求变化，导致票价周期性 波动显著。疫情期间行业巨亏，商务需求疲软致票价连续下跌，但基本 面和股价已触及历史底部，下行风险有限。 未来 3-5 年航空业供需关系预计改善，票价或持续上行。国内商务需求 虽承压，但旅游需求稳健增长，外国人入境和中国人出境游潜力巨大， 为行业提供增长动力。 中国入境游占比远低于日本，免签政策有望显著拉动航空需求，预计未 来保持两位数增长。中国航司在国际航线，尤其欧洲航线，市场份额持 续提升。 疫情后全球供应链效率下降，飞机交付周期延长，地缘政治因素增加合 作难度，导致供给偏紧局面预计持续 5-6 年。飞机利用率和客座率提升 空间有限。 普惠发动机问题加剧供给紧张，维修周期延长，影响行业停场比例。新 型发动机技术问题频发，或对整体供应链产生长期影响，加剧供给端挑 战。 Q&A 2026 年航空行业的投资策略是什么？ 2026 年对于航空行业而言是一个重新开始、再度出发的契机。我们将从需求 和供给两个维度分析整个行业的变化。航空行业的利润受多种因素影响，包括 供给、需求、油价和汇率。历史上， ...

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Airlines is at a critical juncture, facing significant challenges and opportunities for survival and growth in a competitive aviation market [5][26]. Group 1: Company Challenges - Qingdao Airlines has faced numerous difficulties over the past twelve years, including losses, equity changes, market shrinkage, engine crises, and heavy financing burdens [6]. - The current global crisis surrounding the Pratt & Whitney engines has limited the airline's fleet availability, complicating the introduction of new aircraft [10]. - The airline's focus should shift from aggressive expansion to stabilizing its operations and cash flow management [9][11]. Group 2: Strategic Opportunities - The recent meetings between Qingdao city officials and Fonda Group regarding health and aviation cooperation suggest potential partnerships that could benefit Qingdao Airlines [3]. - The airline should explore less conventional routes to more lucrative destinations, such as Japan and South Korea, to enhance brand recognition and customer appeal [16][17]. - Building a unique brand identity that reflects the local culture and environment of Qingdao is essential for attracting customers [19][23]. Group 3: Employee and Cultural Considerations - Trust and morale among employees are critical, as the airline has experienced significant fluctuations in operations, affecting staff confidence [20][21]. - Clear performance assessments and reasonable incentives are necessary to rebuild cultural cohesion within the company [22]. - Transparency in operations and communication with the public can help mitigate misunderstandings and foster a positive image [22]. Group 4: Industry Context - The entire aviation industry is experiencing a downturn, with smaller airlines facing increasing pressure as resources concentrate among larger carriers [26][28]. - There is no external savior for the airline; it must rely on its own strategies and resilience to navigate the current challenges [29].

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines is addressing aircraft shortages by dismantling engines from new Airbus jets in Europe and shipping them to the U.S. tax-free to reactivate grounded planes [1][3]. Group 1: Aircraft Shortage Solutions - Delta Air Lines has been removing engines from its new Airbus A321neo aircraft in Europe and shipping them to the U.S. to resolve aircraft shortages [1]. - The airline has grounded some older A320neo series planes due to issues with their original engines [1]. Group 2: Trade and Tariff Implications - The inability to import new aircraft is partly due to a 10% tariff on European-made planes, a consequence of trade tensions initiated by former President Trump [1]. - Delta's CEO Ed Bastian confirmed that the airline is transporting a "small number" of new engines and intends to continue this practice to avoid tariffs [3]. - Earlier this year, Delta Air Lines transported new Airbus long-haul aircraft via Japan to circumvent import costs [3].