证 券 研 究 报 告 中国国航（601111）深度研究报告 推荐（维持） 航空股或开启大级别行情 ——华创交运|航空强国系列研究（一） 公司研究 航空 2026 年 01 月 04 日 目标价：11.8 元/10.0 港元 当前价：9.37 元/7.11 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 1,74 ...

本文字数：1826，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈姗姗 2025年年末，多家国内上市航司陆续发布公告，都与跟空中客车公司签订新的飞机大单有关。 2025.12.31 两天内，包括春秋航空，吉祥航空，中国国航，华夏航空以及中飞租赁在内的5家公司，分别与空客签 订飞机购置协议，总计购买148架空客A320系列飞机。 两天拿下148架飞机大单 根据中国国航今日发布的公告，公司及全资子公司国航进出口有限公司与空客公司签订飞机购置协议， 向后者购买60架空客A320neo系列飞机本次采购飞机计划于2028年至2032年分批交付，目录价格合计约 为95.3亿美元，包括机身、附加部件及引擎的价格。 华夏航空在同日发布公告，称向空客订购3架A320系列飞机，经国家批准认可后，将自2030年起的三年 内完成交付。 前一天，春秋航空和吉祥航空率先发布公告，分别向空客购买30架及25架空客A320neo系列飞机，经国 家批准认可后，将于2028年至2032年向公司交付。其中春秋航空的30架飞机目录总价不超过41.28亿美 元，吉祥航空的25架飞机目录价格约41亿美元。 此外，中飞租赁公司也与空客签署协议，订购30架A32 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple domestic airlines in China have signed significant aircraft purchase agreements with Airbus, totaling 148 A320 series aircraft, indicating a strong demand for narrow-body planes despite current market challenges [3][8]. Group 1: Aircraft Orders - China National Airlines and its subsidiary signed an agreement to purchase 60 A320neo aircraft, with a total list price of approximately $9.53 billion, scheduled for delivery between 2028 and 2032 [5]. - Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines announced orders for 30 and 25 A320neo aircraft, respectively, with total prices of up to $4.128 billion and approximately $4.1 billion, to be delivered from 2028 to 2032 [6]. - China Aircraft Leasing Company ordered 30 A320neo aircraft, with deliveries planned before 2033 [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Airbus has secured a total of 148 aircraft orders from China in a short period, reflecting a growing trend of large orders from Chinese airlines [8]. - By 2025, Airbus is expected to hold a market share of over 55% in China, making it the largest single-country market for the company [9]. - The global second-largest aircraft leasing company, Avolon, indicated that popular aircraft models like the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo are sold out by 2030, highlighting strong demand [9]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - The recent aircraft orders may be a strategic move to secure aircraft availability and mitigate operational challenges caused by engine shortages, which have led to increased grounded aircraft [11]. - The International Air Transport Association reported that over 5,000 aircraft are currently grounded, the highest level in history, exacerbated by supply chain issues due to U.S.-China trade tensions [11]. - Despite the current overcapacity in the domestic market, the introduction of new aircraft is slowing, with the fleet size growing at a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% from 2019 to 2025 [12]. Group 4: Aircraft Type Trends - The introduction of wide-body aircraft has nearly stagnated, with only a net increase of 4 aircraft from 2019 to 2025, primarily due to slow recovery in international routes [13]. - The domestic market is seeing a shift towards narrow-body aircraft, with significant increases in new models like the A320neo and B737 MAX, while older models are being phased out [12][13]. - The share of domestic aircraft in the fleet has increased from 1.3% in 2019 to 4.5%, indicating a growing presence of domestic manufacturers in the narrow-body market [13].

2025年10月22日，中国天津正式启用第二条A320系列飞机总装线，新设施计划于2026年初全面投入运 营。路透社援引傅里的观点称，天津第二条总装线将融入空中客车公司全球生产网络，为公司提供更大 的生产灵活性与产能保障，助力实现2027年A320系列飞机月产量75架的目标。 【文/观察者网 邓军 编辑/赵乾坤】 综合路透社、国际航空业媒体Simple Flying报道，北京时间12月29日晚，春秋航空（601021.SH）与吉 祥航空（603885.SH）分别发布公告，宣布计划向空中客车公司采购A320系列飞机。其中，春秋航空拟 购入30架A320neo系列飞机，目录价格约为41.28亿美元（约合288.56亿元人民币）；吉祥航空计划采购 25架A320系列飞机，目录价格约41亿美元（约合286.60亿元人民币）。这批飞机的交付周期预计集中在 2028年至2032年，目前交易尚需提交两家航空公司股东大会审议，并获得中国相关部门批准。 Simple Flying分析指出，两家中国航司的最新举措向国际民航业传递出一个明确信号：中国航空市场依 然保持强劲活力，覆盖了从低成本运营到全方位服务的各细分领域。市场普遍预 ...

1、中柬泰三方抚仙会晤新闻公报发布。新闻公报称，2025年12月28日至29日，中柬泰外长和三国军队部门负责人在中国云南玉溪抚仙湖举行会晤。中 方欢迎柬泰12月27日边界总委员会第3次特别会议签署停火联合声明。三方强调，这符合柬泰两国人民的根本和长远利益，释放了正面积极信号，有利 于地区和平稳定，充分表明对话协商是解决复杂争端的现实有效途径。 2、国务院关税税则委员会发布《2026年关税调整方案》，将自2026年1月1日起实施。为增强国内国际两个市场两种资源的联动效应，扩大优质商品供 给，2026年对935项商品实施低于最惠国税率的进口暂定税率。 | | | | | 12月30日 交易提示 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 代码简称 发行价 | | 市盘率 | 参考行业 市盈率 | 参考行业 | 总市值 | 主营 聚乙烯醇(PVA)、特种纤维、醋酸 | | 新股上市 | 双欣坏保 001369 | 6.85 | 16. 19 | 28. 75 | 化学原料和 化学制品制 造业 | 78.57亿 | 乙烯(VAC)、 ...

Group 1 - Yuanbao has launched a new feature called "one-sentence video creation," allowing users to easily convert a sentence or a static photo into a video without any editing skills. This technology is based on Tencent's latest open-source HunyuanVideo 1.5 model [2] - China's 2-ton eVTOL has successfully completed cross-city cargo low-altitude test flights in the Guizhou highland area, marking a significant breakthrough in logistics applications in high-altitude regions [3] - SAIC Group announced that its solid-state battery production line has been fully connected in Shanghai, with sample production expected by the end of this year and mass production scheduled for 2027 [4] Group 2 - The Hengqin port experienced a surge in traffic during the National Games, with a total of 1.54 million crossings over 15 days, averaging about 102,700 crossings per day [5] - Chongqing has introduced a parenting subsidy program, providing an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan for each child under three years old, starting from January 1, 2025 [6] - BYD's Lian Yubo and CATL's Wu Kai have been elected as academicians of the Chinese Academy of Engineering [7][8] Group 3 - Xiaomi's Vice President Li Xiaoshuang stated that the company has invested over 7 billion yuan in AI research this year, with a smart driving team of over 1,800 members, including 108 PhDs [9] - Huawei announced that its Qian Kun smart driving ADS 4 Pro enhanced version will be fully pushed in Q1 2026, featuring advanced technologies [10] - Guangzhou State-owned Assets recently took over two Evergrande automobile companies, with a state-owned enterprise becoming the sole shareholder [11] Group 4 - GAC Toyota plans to produce and sell over 800,000 vehicles in 2026, aiming for a 10% sales growth by 2027 and a target of 1 million vehicles by 2028 [12] - Hon Hai and Intrinsic have established a joint venture in the U.S. to build an AI robotics factory, integrating AI platform capabilities with manufacturing [13] - Air Astana has signed a memorandum of understanding to potentially purchase up to 50 Airbus A320neo aircraft, marking the largest procurement in the airline's history [14] Group 5 - Blue Origin announced plans to build a new heavy-lift rocket, the New Glenn 9x4, which will have more engines than its current New Glenn 7x2 rocket [14] - Neuralink's first human subject is planning a second chip implant to restore leg movement capabilities [15] - xTool has opened a regional office in Europe and launched its flagship desktop laser engraving machine, marking a significant step in local operations [16] Group 6 - Amazon plans to invest at least $3 billion in a new data center park in Warren County, Mississippi, which is expected to create at least 200 new jobs [17] - OpenAI has officially launched a group chat feature for ChatGPT, supporting up to 20 participants [18] - Elon Musk predicted that human consciousness could be uploaded to robots within the next 10 to 20 years through Neuralink technology [19]

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines is addressing aircraft shortages by dismantling engines from new Airbus jets in Europe and shipping them to the U.S. tax-free to reactivate grounded planes [1][3]. Group 1: Aircraft Shortage Solutions - Delta Air Lines has been removing engines from its new Airbus A321neo aircraft in Europe and shipping them to the U.S. to resolve aircraft shortages [1]. - The airline has grounded some older A320neo series planes due to issues with their original engines [1]. Group 2: Trade and Tariff Implications - The inability to import new aircraft is partly due to a 10% tariff on European-made planes, a consequence of trade tensions initiated by former President Trump [1]. - Delta's CEO Ed Bastian confirmed that the airline is transporting a "small number" of new engines and intends to continue this practice to avoid tariffs [3]. - Earlier this year, Delta Air Lines transported new Airbus long-haul aircraft via Japan to circumvent import costs [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that AviLease, a subsidiary of the Saudi Public Investment Fund, has announced an order for 10 Airbus A350F freighters and 30 A320neo series aircraft [1] - The agreement was signed at the 2025 Paris Air Show, with expectations to increase the order to 22 A350F freighters and 55 A320neo series aircraft in the future [1]

Core Insights - The aviation industry is facing significant challenges in 2025 due to engine issues and parts shortages, leading to record-high grounded aircraft numbers [1][2] - Willie Walsh, the IATA director general, highlighted the ongoing disappointment among airlines regarding delayed aircraft deliveries and engine-related operational disruptions [1][5] Group 1: Engine Issues - Nearly 70% of grounded aircraft globally are equipped with Pratt & Whitney's PWG1000 series engines, particularly affecting the A320neo fleet [2] - The PW1100 engine has been flagged for safety concerns, requiring extensive inspections that could lead to an average of 350 aircraft being grounded daily from 2024 to 2026 [2][3] - In May 2025, domestic airlines reported an average of 4.4 days of grounded aircraft, with PW1100-equipped planes averaging 16.2 days, significantly higher than the average [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Delivery Delays - The backlog of undelivered aircraft has surged to over 17,000 units, double the pre-pandemic average, with delivery times potentially extending to 14 years [5][6] - Airlines are experiencing increased rental costs due to limited aircraft supply, with narrow-body aircraft rental rates rising by 20-30% compared to 2019 [7] - The supply chain issues are expected to persist through 2025 and possibly into the next decade, impacting airline operations and profitability [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - While some airlines face challenges due to aircraft shortages, the delays in new aircraft deliveries may alleviate overcapacity in the domestic market [6] - Aircraft leasing companies are benefiting from the situation, with Avolon reporting a 36% increase in net profit in Q1 2023 [9] - The delays in Boeing and Airbus deliveries are providing opportunities for domestic manufacturers like COMAC, which plans to ramp up production of the C919 aircraft [9]

Core Insights - Avilease, a Saudi leasing company, is reportedly in discussions to place an order for Airbus A320neo series aircraft following a deal with Boeing [1] Company Summary - Avilease is exploring the possibility of expanding its fleet by considering an order for Airbus A320neo series aircraft after successfully negotiating a transaction with Boeing [1] Industry Summary - The potential order from Avilease highlights the competitive dynamics between Boeing and Airbus in the aircraft leasing market, particularly in the narrow-body segment [1]