来源 | 美股研究社 又逢美股业绩报披露季。 业绩发布后，新东方美、港股股价涨跌不一：新东方 (EDU.US) 收跌 0.68% 、新东方 - S(09901.HK) 次日开盘后一度涨超 5.6% ，不过两者走势都呈高开拉升再回调态势，可见投资者 对其业绩报的理解存在分化。 原因在于，看似极具韧性的整体业绩下，其背后的隐忧引起了不少机构投资者的担忧。 2025 财 年第三单季度其净营收同比下降 2% 至 11.83 亿美元；更重要的是公司对 Q4 核心教育收入指引 则不佳，和机构预期落差较大。 目前包括麦格理、摩根大通、大华继显都先后发布研报下调新东方目标价。 教 育 主 业 重 回 高 增 长 轨 道 收入整体下滑，教育主业结构性增长，盈利稳步提升，这是新东方 2025 财年第三财季季报的概 括。 财报显示，新东方 2025 财年第三季度的净营收 虽然 同比下降 2% 至 11.83 亿美元 。 但是，若扣除 东方甄选自营产品及直播电商业务 ，其 营收 不降反升， 同比上升 21.2% 至 10.38 亿美元。 日前，中国民办教育服务的标杆企业 ——新东方发布 Q3 财报： 2025 财年前三财季（截至 2 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net revenue decreased by 2% year over year, but net revenue excluding Easter buy increased by 21.2% year over year [6] - Operating income increased by 9.8% year over year to $124.5 million [17] - Net income attributable to New Oriental increased by 0.1% year over year to $87.3 million [18] - Non-GAAP net income decreased by 14.3% year over year to $113.3 million [18] - Cash and cash equivalents totaled approximately $1.42 billion, with total assets around $4.7 billion [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overseas test drive business revenue increased by 7% year over year [9] - Overseas study consulting business revenue increased by 21% year over year [9] - Adults and university students business revenue increased by 17% year over year [9] - New educational business initiatives recorded a revenue increase of 35% year over year [11] - Integrated tourism-related business line revenue increased by 85% year over year [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Top 10 cities contributed over 60% of the overseas test drive business [10] - Top 10 cities contributed approximately 50% of the intelligent learning system and device business [11] - Revenue contribution from top 10 cities in integrated tourism-related business exceeded 50% [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Company remains committed to long-term value creation and operational consistency [6] - Continued investments in AI and technology integration to enhance educational offerings and operational efficiency [14][22] - Share repurchase program extended with an increased aggregate value from $400 million to $700 million [15] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates total net revenue growth in the range of 10% to 13% for the upcoming quarter [20] - Cost control measures initiated to enhance efficiency and operating margins [21] - Management expects overseas related business growth to be in the range of 5% to 10% in the upcoming quarter [27] Other Important Information - Operating costs decreased by 3.2% year over year, while selling and marketing expenses increased by 13% [17] - Deferred revenue increased by 15% year over year to approximately $1.75 billion [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of slowdown in overseas related businesses - Management indicated that the slowdown is due to macroeconomic conditions and international relations changes, projecting growth of 5% to 10% for overseas related business in Q4 [27] Question: Breakdown of other business growth in Q4 - Management provided estimates for Q4 growth: overseas related business around 8%, domestic university students business around 19%, high school business around 16-17%, and K-9 educational business around 30-35% [30] Question: K-9 offline enrollment growth and learning device impact - Management explained that slower K-9 growth is impacted by enrollment timing differences and expects K-9 business to grow over 35% in Q4 [41] Question: Sustainability of margin expansion into FY26 - Management expects margin expansion due to ongoing cost control and efficiency enhancements, aiming for a lower percentage of headquarters expenses in FY26 [70][72] Question: Future shareholder payback plans - Management confirmed ongoing discussions for future capital allocation plans, including potential dividends and share buybacks [50] Question: Growth expectations for other business segments next year - Management anticipates similar growth rates for core business lines as in Q4, with overseas related business stabilizing and K-9 new business expected to grow around 25-30% [58] Question: AI and technology development strategy - Management emphasized the integration of AI in teaching and learning processes, enhancing efficiency and data collection for better student outcomes [63][64] Question: Learning hardware business strategy amid competition - Management expressed confidence in the learning hardware business model, leveraging educational strengths and technology to maintain competitive margins [81][83]