新东方港股今日大涨近8%，带动新东方(EDU.US)美股盘前涨近6%。消息上，大和发表研究报告指，经 审视新东方2025年夏季学期经营状况，以及旗下东方甄选2025财年业绩后，认为集团整体业务发展趋向 稳定，K-9秋季学生留存率改善，出国考试准备业务不再恶化。大和将新东方2026至2028财年收入预测 上调1%至2%，每股盈利预测上调0.2%至5%。(格隆汇) | EDU 新东方 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 51 350 + +0.590 +1.16% | | 收盘价 09/26 15:59 美东 | | 54.350 + 3.000 +5.84% | | 盘前价 09/29 04:34 美东 | | 三 7 24 华 S 9 日 ♥ 自选 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 51.350 | 开盘价 50.600 | 成交量 56.99万 | | 最低价 50.130 | 昨收价 50.760 | 成交额 2904.12万 | | 平均价 50.955 | 市盈率TTM 22.33 | 总市值 81.72亿 (1) | | 振 幅 2.40% | 市盈率(静) 22.33 | ...

Group 1 - New Oriental-S (09901) shares increased by over 5%, reaching a price of HKD 41.62 with a trading volume of HKD 114 million [1] - Guosheng Securities reported that as of FY25Q4, the company's deferred revenue (customer prepayments) was USD 1.955 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.8%, indicating growth in the collection side which supports future revenue [1] - The company projects FY2026Q1 net revenue (including Dongfang Zhenxuan) to grow by 2% to 5% year-over-year, reaching USD 1.464 to 1.507 billion, with conservative guidance due to a high base in FY25Q1 and rescheduling of K12 business due to the early Spring Festival in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Daiwa noted that after reviewing New Oriental-S's operational status for the summer semester of 2025 and the performance of Dongfang Zhenxuan for FY2025, the overall business development of the group appears stable, with improved K-9 fall student retention rates and no further deterioration in overseas exam preparation services [2] - New Oriental announced plans to distribute no less than 50% of its net profit attributable to shareholders from the previous fiscal year in the form of dividends or share buybacks starting from FY2026 [2] - Daiwa believes that the anticipated shareholder return ratio could significantly exceed the group's commitment of 50%, potentially reaching high double-digit percentages or even over 100%, which is seen as a key positive catalyst for the shares [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that New Oriental's overall business development is stabilizing, with improved K-9 fall student retention rates and no further deterioration in overseas exam preparation services [1] - New Oriental plans to distribute no less than 50% of its net profit attributable to shareholders from the previous fiscal year in the form of dividends or share buybacks starting from the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The report anticipates that the shareholder return ratio could significantly exceed the committed 50%, potentially reaching high double-digit percentages or even over 100%, which is seen as a key positive catalyst for the stock [1] Group 2 - Daiwa has raised its revenue forecasts for New Oriental for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 1% to 2%, and its earnings per share forecasts by 0.2% to 5% [1] - The rating for New Oriental has been reaffirmed as "Buy," with the target price increased from HKD 43 to HKD 49 [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental's financial report for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal year 2025 shows a revenue increase but a significant decline in net profit due to goodwill impairment, indicating challenges in certain business segments and a strategic shift towards AI investments and new educational solutions [1][3][6]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, revenue reached $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while net profit was $7.1 million, down 73.7% due to a $60.3 million goodwill impairment [1][2]. - Excluding the Oriental Selection business, the fourth quarter revenue was $1.089 billion, reflecting an 18.7% year-on-year growth [1]. - For the entire fiscal year 2025, total revenue was $4.9 billion, up 13.6%, and net profit was $371.7 million, a 20.1% increase [2]. Business Segment Performance - The overseas study preparation and consulting businesses saw revenue growth of approximately 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, although growth rates have slowed compared to previous quarters [3]. - The new education business experienced a 32.5% revenue increase, with significant engagement in non-subject tutoring across 60 cities [3][4]. - The cultural tourism business reported a 71% revenue growth, driven by domestic and international study tours [4][5]. Cost and Impairment Issues - The significant drop in net profit was primarily attributed to a $60.3 million goodwill impairment related to past acquisitions of kindergartens, reflecting changes in policy and market conditions [6]. - Operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter were $1.252 billion, up 11.2%, with stock-based compensation expenses increasing by 11% to $28.6 million [6]. Future Guidance - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 2%-5% for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 and 5%-10% for the entire fiscal year, indicating a more stable and sustainable growth phase [6][7]. - The guidance now includes the Oriental Selection business, reflecting its operational stabilization after restructuring [7].

Core Insights - New Oriental achieved net revenue of $1.243 billion in FY25Q4, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was $7.1 million, down 73.7% year-on-year [1] - The core education business remained stable, but revenue growth guidance for FY26Q1 has decreased [1][2] - The company expects FY26Q1 net revenue to be between $1.464 billion and $1.507 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2%-5% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Excluding revenue from self-operated products and live e-commerce, FY25Q4 net revenue was $1.0885 billion, up 18.7% year-on-year, surpassing previous guidance [1] - Revenue from overseas exam preparation increased by 14.6%, while overseas consulting revenue rose by 8.2% in FY25Q4 [1] - Domestic exam preparation for adults and college students saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 17.0% in FY25Q4 [1] New Business Developments - Revenue from new educational services grew by 32.5% year-on-year in FY25Q4, with approximately 918,000 registrations and 255,000 active paying users for smart learning systems [2] - The number of operational outlets exceeded 1,300 by the end of FY25Q4, with expansion plans on track [2] Profitability and Margin Analysis - FY25Q4 operating profit margin was -0.7%, down from 0.9% in the same period last year, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [3] - Non-GAAP operating profit margin for FY25Q4 was 6.6%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company anticipates that despite challenges in FY26Q1, profitability may still see year-on-year growth due to the turnaround of the live e-commerce segment and ongoing cost reduction efforts [3] Future Outlook - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [2] - Profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been adjusted downwards to $481 million and $559 million, respectively, reflecting a conservative outlook due to macroeconomic pressures [3]

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental's FY25Q4 net revenue reached $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was $7.1 million, a decrease of 73.7% [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY25Q4 core education business maintained stability with net revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) at $1.0885 billion, up 18.7% year-on-year, exceeding previous guidance [5] - The company expects FY26Q1 overall net revenue to be between $1.464 billion and $1.507 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2%-5% [6] - FY25Q4 operating profit margin was -0.7%, down from 0.9% in the same period last year, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [7] Group 2: Business Segments - In FY25Q4, the overseas examination preparation business revenue grew by 14.6%, and the overseas consulting business revenue increased by 8.2% [5] - The new education business saw a revenue increase of 32.5% year-on-year, with approximately 918,000 registrations and 255,000 active paying users for smart learning systems [5] - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite a significant slowdown in revenue growth for the overseas business and increased competition, the profitability from the Oriental Selection is expected to positively contribute to overall earnings [8] - The company aims to improve overall profit margins in FY26Q1 through cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures [8]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's FY25Q4 net revenue reached USD 1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 7.1 million, a decrease of 73.7% [3][4] - The core education business showed steady growth, but the overseas and cultural tourism businesses negatively impacted profits [4][6] - The company expects FY26Q1 net revenue to be between USD 1.464 billion and USD 1.507 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2%-5%, indicating a significant slowdown compared to previous guidance [5][7] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - FY25Q4 net revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) was USD 1.0885 billion, up 18.7% year-on-year, exceeding previous guidance [4] - The overseas examination preparation business revenue grew by 14.6%, and the overseas consulting business revenue increased by 8.2% [4] - Domestic examination preparation for adults and university students saw a revenue increase of 17.0% [4] Profitability - FY25Q4 operating profit margin was -0.7%, down from 0.9% in the same period last year, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of USD 60.3 million in the kindergarten business [6] - Non-GAAP operating profit margin for FY25Q4 was 6.6%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Financial Forecasts - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 to USD 481 million and USD 559 million, respectively, reflecting a 10% and 18% reduction [7][8] - The projected EPS for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are USD 0.29, USD 0.34, and USD 0.38, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15x, 13x, and 12x [7][8]

Core Insights - New Oriental's net revenue for Q4 of fiscal year 2025 reached $1.243 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 9.4% [1] - The company's operating loss for Q4 was $8.7 million, a decline from an operating profit of $10.5 million in the same quarter last year [1] - Net profit attributable to New Oriental shareholders fell by 73.7% to $7.1 million in Q4 [1] Revenue Growth - The increase in net revenue was primarily driven by new educational business initiatives [2] - Revenue from overseas exam preparation and consulting services grew by approximately 14.6% and 8.2% year-over-year, respectively [2] - Domestic exam preparation services for adults and college students saw a year-over-year growth of about 17.0% [2] - New educational businesses maintained strong growth, with revenue increasing by 32.5% year-over-year [2] Cost and Expenses - Total operating costs and expenses for the quarter amounted to $1.25 billion, up 11.2% year-over-year [2] - Various costs, including revenue costs, sales and marketing expenses, and general and administrative expenses, all experienced increases [2] - Share-based compensation expenses rose by 11.0% to $28.6 million [2] Annual Performance - For the fiscal year ending May 31, 2025, New Oriental's net revenue was $4.9 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13.6% [2] - Operating profit for the fiscal year was $428 million, reflecting a 22.2% increase year-over-year [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit for the fiscal year was $554 million, up 15.8% year-over-year [2] Profitability Metrics - The operating profit margin for fiscal year 2025 was 8.7%, compared to 8.1% in the previous year [3] - The Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 11.3%, slightly up from 11.1% year-over-year [3] - Net profit attributable to New Oriental shareholders for the fiscal year was $370 million, a 20.1% increase year-over-year [3] - Basic and diluted net profit per ADS for the fiscal year were $2.29 and $2.28, respectively [3]

Core Insights - New Oriental Education Technology Group reported its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending May 31, 2025, showing a net revenue of $4.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, and a net profit of $372 million, up 20.1% [1] Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, New Oriental's net revenue reached $1.243 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, while the net profit attributable to the company was $7.1 million, a significant decrease of 73.7% [1] - Excluding revenue from self-operated products and live e-commerce business, the net revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 18.7% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - Revenue from overseas exam preparation and consulting services grew approximately 14.6% and 8.2% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Domestic exam preparation services targeting adults and university students saw a year-on-year growth of about 17% [1] - New Oriental's new educational businesses maintained strong growth momentum, recording a year-on-year revenue increase of 32.5% in the quarter [1] - Non-subject tutoring services were launched in nearly 60 cities, with approximately 918,000 registrations in the quarter [1] - The smart learning system and devices were adopted in around 60 cities, with about 255,000 active paying users in the quarter [1] Strategic Outlook - Over the past year, New Oriental has gradually consolidated its long-term development strategy [1]

Core Insights - New Oriental's net revenue for Q4 of FY2025 increased by 9.4% year-on-year to $1.2432 billion, while net revenue excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce business rose by 18.7% to $1.0885 billion [1][2] - The operating loss for Q4 of FY2025 was $8.7 million, compared to an operating profit of $10.5 million in the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to New Oriental's shareholders for Q4 of FY2025 decreased by 73.7% year-on-year to $7.1 million [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending May 31, 2025, New Oriental's net revenue reached $4.9003 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [2] - Operating profit for FY2025 was $428.3 million, up 22.2% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2025 was $371.7 million, representing a 20.1% increase year-on-year [2] Business Segments - Revenue from overseas exam preparation and consulting services grew by approximately 14.6% and 8.2% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Domestic exam preparation services for adults and college students recorded a year-on-year growth of about 17.0% [3] - New educational businesses maintained strong growth, with a revenue increase of 32.5% year-on-year, and non-subject tutoring services were launched in nearly 60 cities [3] Future Outlook - New Oriental expects Q1 of FY2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2025) net revenue to be between $1.4641 billion and $1.5072 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2% to 5% [2] - The company plans to enhance management of core educational businesses, improve product capabilities and quality, systematically develop educational resources, and increase operational efficiency in the new fiscal year [3]