Group 1 - The global new shipbuilding market has seen a significant decline in order indicators this year, while China's shipbuilding industry continues to demonstrate strong resilience and competitiveness, maintaining a leading position in completion volume, new orders, and backlog orders [1] - From 2021, the global shipbuilding market experienced five years of continuous growth, entering a critical phase of the current "super cycle," influenced by geopolitical factors, decarbonization pathways, and industry capacity [1] - In the first half of the year, China's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and backlog orders accounted for 51.7%, 68.3%, and 64.9% of the global total, respectively, with ship export value also increasing by 18.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - China's shipbuilding industry achieved historical highs in backlog orders, new ship price index, and operating revenue in the first half of the year, with a total profit of 38.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%, and an operating profit margin of 9.71% [2] - The acceleration of green low-carbon initiatives is evident, with rapid growth in orders for LNG and methanol-powered ships, and breakthroughs in zero-carbon ship orders, achieving a 68.8% market share in new green ship orders [2] - It is projected that China's shipbuilding completion volume will be around 51 million deadweight tons in 2025, with new orders slightly declining compared to the previous year, while backlog orders will remain above 230 million deadweight tons [2]

中船系公司 Q2 业绩预告超预期，6 月新船订单环比增长 船舶行业系列十一 中游制造/机械 1）25H1 业绩预告归母净利润 15–18 亿元，同比增长 182%–238% 事件： 近期，中船系公司发布 2025H1 业绩预告： 中国船舶： 1）25H1 业绩预告归母净利润 28–31 亿元，同比增长 98%–119%。 2）单 Q2，公司预计实现归母净利润 16.73-19.73 亿元，同比增长 66%到 95%。 中国重工： 2）单 Q2，公司预计实现归母净利润 9.8-12.8 亿元，同比增长 147%到 222%。 中国动力： 1）25H1 业绩预告归母净利润 8-11.5 亿元，同比增长 68%–142% 2）单 Q2，公司预计实现归母净利润 4-7.5 亿元，同比增长 3%到 94%。 评论： 1、中国船舶等公司业绩显著超预期 高价订单的密集交付+原材料成本剪刀差的逻辑，均为中船系的造船股贡献了显 著的利润弹性。考虑到当前中国船舶的在手订单依然饱和，高价订单正处于交 付前段，后续利润弹性有望逐步放大。 此外，替代燃料的逻辑已得到彻底夯实：2025 年 1-6 月全球替代燃料船舶订 单为 151 艘 ...