Group 1 - The global new shipbuilding market has seen a significant decline in order indicators this year, while China's shipbuilding industry continues to demonstrate strong resilience and competitiveness, maintaining a leading position in completion volume, new orders, and backlog orders [1] - From 2021, the global shipbuilding market experienced five years of continuous growth, entering a critical phase of the current "super cycle," influenced by geopolitical factors, decarbonization pathways, and industry capacity [1] - In the first half of the year, China's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and backlog orders accounted for 51.7%, 68.3%, and 64.9% of the global total, respectively, with ship export value also increasing by 18.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - China's shipbuilding industry achieved historical highs in backlog orders, new ship price index, and operating revenue in the first half of the year, with a total profit of 38.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%, and an operating profit margin of 9.71% [2] - The acceleration of green low-carbon initiatives is evident, with rapid growth in orders for LNG and methanol-powered ships, and breakthroughs in zero-carbon ship orders, achieving a 68.8% market share in new green ship orders [2] - It is projected that China's shipbuilding completion volume will be around 51 million deadweight tons in 2025, with new orders slightly declining compared to the previous year, while backlog orders will remain above 230 million deadweight tons [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the shipbuilding industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [8]. Core Insights - The performance of China Shipbuilding and related companies has significantly exceeded expectations, driven by high-value orders and favorable raw material cost dynamics, suggesting a potential for increased profit elasticity in the future [2]. - The global order for alternative fuel vessels has shown a decrease in quantity but an increase in total tonnage, reflecting a trend towards larger, more efficient green ships [2]. - The new ship price index has stabilized and shown slight recovery, with June new ship orders increasing on a month-over-month basis, indicating early signs of market recovery [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - China Shipbuilding's H1 2025 net profit forecast is between 2.8-3.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 98%-119% [1]. - China Heavy Industry's H1 2025 net profit forecast is between 1.5-1.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 182%-238% [1]. - China Power's H1 2025 net profit forecast is between 0.8-1.15 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 68%-142% [1]. Market Trends - The new ship price index has stabilized at 186 points in June, with a slight increase from May [3]. - Global new ship orders reached 2.54 million CGT in June, showing a month-on-month increase despite a year-on-year decline of 81% [3]. - The second-hand ship market is experiencing a revival, particularly in the oil tanker segment, with VLCC prices showing a steady upward trend [7]. Industry Developments - The merger between China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry is nearing completion, which will create the largest shipbuilding entity globally and reshape the market landscape [7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant profit growth in the shipbuilding sector, particularly for companies like China Shipbuilding and China Power, as they capitalize on the recovery in ship prices and order volumes [8].