Group 1: Core Insights - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant restructuring, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain reshaping, and shifts in monetary policy, which are pushing the commodity market into a critical phase [1] - The demand for copper is expected to grow due to the "re-industrialization" trend and regionalization of supply chains, with China's refined copper consumption projected to reach 1,495 million tons in 2024, a 2.75% increase year-on-year [2] - The U.S. and EU are launching substantial infrastructure projects, such as a $584 billion grid upgrade plan in the EU, which is anticipated to increase copper demand by 4% to 5% annually [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The competition for copper resources is intensifying due to supply chain regionalization, with the U.S. stockpiling over 70% of global exchange copper inventories, leading to shortages and rising costs in Asia [3] - Trade policies and inventory management by the U.S. are influencing global copper supply chains, creating a long-term support logic for copper prices [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle is a key variable for the commodity market, as lower real interest rates are expected to support commodity pricing [4] - Historical data indicates that during past rate-cutting cycles, commodities like gold and copper have seen significant price increases, reinforcing the positive correlation between lower rates and commodity prices [4] Group 4: Commodity Role in Investment - Commodities are increasingly recognized for their dual role in asset allocation as both an inflation hedge and a risk diversifier, especially in the context of rising global inflation [5] - The strategic importance of copper is highlighted due to its critical role in AI infrastructure, electricity, and renewable energy, further supporting its price stability [5] Group 5: ETF Performance - The recent performance of the non-ferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has seen its scale surpass 4 billion, reaching 4.124 billion yuan, with a total of 2.072 billion shares, marking new highs since its inception [6] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows of 1.18 billion yuan over the past 22 days, indicating strong investor interest [6]