| | | 2025 年 07 月 22 日 胶版印刷纸：低位震荡，向上乏力 | 市 场 | 区 域 | 纸 种 | 2025/7/21 | 2025/7/18 | 环 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天 阳 | 4850 | 4850 | 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 5150 | 5150 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g华夏太阳 | 5150 | 5150 | 0 | | | | 70g天 阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4950 | 4950 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 5050 | 5050 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 5100 | 5100 | 0 | | | 税 前 | 含税成本 | 5028 | 5014 | 14 | | 成本利润 | | 税前毛利 | 72 | 86 | -14 | | | | 不含税收入 | 4513 | 4513 | 0 | | | 税 后 | 不含税成本 | 4622 | 4610 | 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - In June, the prices of pulp and paper have stabilized after a decline, with pulp prices expected to remain low and paper prices showing weakness during the off-season [3] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices and costs have stabilized with a marginal improvement in supply and demand. As of June 27, the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper was 5153 CNY/ton, down 47 CNY/ton (0.90%) month-on-month and down 573 CNY/ton (10.01%) year-on-year [5][8] - Supply and demand are expected to improve marginally as the publishing order cycle approaches, although the overall demand remains weak [10] - Profitability is stable as the average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper was 1.81%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points from May [21] White Cardboard - Prices initially increased before declining, with the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard at 4088 CNY/ton, a 0.29% increase from May but a 6.17% decrease year-on-year [24] - Supply and demand are expected to widen, with a forecast of increased production and limited demand during the traditional off-season [28] - Profitability has improved due to a decrease in costs, with the gross margin rising by 1.46 percentage points from May [37] Boxboard Paper - The market price for boxboard paper has decreased, with an average price of 3503 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY/ton (0.31%) from May and down 3.68% year-on-year [40] - The industry is entering a traditional off-season, leading to increased supply pressure and weak demand [44] - The profitability of the industry is under pressure due to rising costs and declining prices [40] Pulp - External prices for pulp are declining, with a supply-demand imbalance expected to persist. The new external prices for needle pulp are set at 720 USD/ton and for bleached pulp at 620 USD/ton [6][8] - The demand side remains weak, with paper mills adopting price-cutting strategies to optimize raw material procurement costs [6][8] Waste Paper - Prices have fluctuated, with overall supply and demand remaining weak. The market is experiencing a traditional off-season, leading to reduced demand [4][6]