Core Viewpoint - The Chinese sports brand industry is experiencing a collective slowdown, marked by the end of the "national sports dividend" period and increasing competition from domestic brands, leading to a "mid-life crisis" for leading companies like Anta, Li Ning, and Xtep [6][10][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - The penetration rate of sports shoes in China has reached around 50%, comparable to the US and Japan, with the domestic sports shoe and apparel market expected to grow only 5.9% to 410 billion yuan in 2024, marking the end of the previous decade's double-digit growth [6][10]. - From 2021 to 2023, domestic brands gained market share due to the Xinjiang cotton incident, with Nike and Adidas dropping to 16.2% and 8.7% market shares respectively, while Anta, Fila, and other brands collectively surpassed 20% [6][10]. - The concentration ratio (CR5) of domestic sports brands has reached 53%, making China the market with the highest concentration globally, indicating a shift from offensive strategies to defensive ones for leading brands [6][10]. Group 2: Challenges for Leading Brands - Anta and Li Ning are facing a "mid-life crisis," with both brands reporting low single-digit growth for several consecutive quarters, and Anta's overall growth relying on other outdoor brands [10][11]. - Anta's recent half-year report highlighted increased discount rates and return rates, indicating heightened price sensitivity among consumers, leading to a downward revision of growth targets [10][11]. - The industry is projected to face a turning point in 2024, with Euromonitor forecasting a mere 5.8% growth over the next five years, suggesting that leading brands will not only face industry slowdowns but also market share declines [10][11]. Group 3: Brand Strategy and Operations - The article discusses the challenges of brand operation in the sports apparel sector, noting that while domestic brands have excelled in manufacturing, they have struggled to translate this into global brand recognition [13][14]. - Domestic brands have relied on celebrity endorsements and major events for brand promotion, but this strategy is losing effectiveness as market dynamics change [14][15]. - The article emphasizes the importance of learning from smaller niche brands that have successfully captured market segments by understanding consumer needs better than established brands [18][19]. Group 4: Consumer Engagement and Distribution - The shift from a supply-demand imbalance to oversupply has led to increased competition, with brands needing to adapt to a more consumer-centric approach [21][22]. - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies are highlighted as essential for improving efficiency and understanding consumer preferences, with successful examples from both domestic and international brands [23][24]. - The need for brands to focus on value-for-money propositions is emphasized, as consumers increasingly demand better price-performance ratios, which could reshape the competitive landscape [26][27].

Core Insights - The local sports giants are at a critical juncture, with Li Ning showing signs of decline while Anta and Xtep demonstrate resilience and growth through strategic brand management and focus on specific market segments [1][4][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Li Ning's retail revenue growth is projected to be low single digits by Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing negative growth [1]. - Li Ning's net profit has declined for two consecutive years, with its market capitalization dropping from over HKD 260 billion in 2021 to around HKD 40 billion currently [1]. - In contrast, Anta's multi-brand strategy has led to significant growth, particularly in high-end brands like Descente and Kolon, which have seen growth rates of 50-55% [1][4]. Group 2: Strategic Moves - Li Ning's strategy of "single brand, multiple categories" is becoming ineffective, as it struggles to replicate the success of Anta's Amer Sports and Xtep's Saucony [4][6]. - The Swedish outdoor brand Haglöfs is entering the Chinese market, which may impact Li Ning's positioning in the outdoor segment [6][7]. - Li Ning is attempting to pivot towards the outdoor market by launching professional and lightweight outdoor product lines, although these currently contribute minimally to total revenue [37][40]. Group 3: Investment and Ownership Structure - LionRock Capital, which recently acquired Haglöfs, has a close relationship with Li Ning, as Li Ning's founder is a non-executive chairman of LionRock [15][11]. - Viva China, now known as Viva Goods, has shifted its focus towards multi-brand operations and has been involved in several acquisitions, including Clarks and Haglöfs [18][19]. - The operational model of Viva Goods under Li Ning's family structure aims to create a synergistic "capital + industry" ecosystem, although its effectiveness remains to be seen [18][19]. Group 4: Market Trends and Challenges - The rise of "Guochao" (national trend) significantly boosted Li Ning's market value until 2021, but the brand's appeal has since diminished as consumer preferences evolve [30][32]. - Li Ning's attempts to diversify with sub-brands like LI-NING 1990 have led to confusion among consumers, resulting in a lack of clear brand identity [32][35]. - The outdoor segment is seen as a growth area, but Li Ning's late entry and previous failures in managing international brands like Aigle and Danskin raise concerns about its future success in this market [37][48].