2026展望：制造板块关税扰动逐步消退，品牌关注复苏机遇及高增细分赛道。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，2025年，纺织制造与品牌端分别经历了外部环境的压力测 试，关税冲击与宏观环境压力扰动龙头公司经营，但龙头公司仍展现了优异的经营韧性。展望2026年， 制造板块的关税扰动有望逐步消退，品牌端建议关注复苏机遇及高增细分赛道。 综合梳理三条投资主线：一、纺织制造板块中，关税扰动逐渐消退，长期增长趋势不改，同时2026年各 龙头代工厂订单展望积极，盈利能力有望触底回升，同时部分龙头公司仍存在较大估值回升弹性。二、 品牌服饰板块中，参考海外龙头品牌公司走出2008年金融危机的经验，通过低谷期修炼内功，本土品牌 有望抓住零售复苏带来的经营改善机遇。三、户外运动主线，户外鞋服是鞋服行业中的景气度最高的赛 道之一，行业增长呈现提速趋势。同时除户外鞋服以外，部分户外装备赛道同样处于高景气周期。 2025复盘：关税冲击纺织制造公司经营，品牌服饰销售端持续承压。 复盘2025年来纺服板块表现，纺织制造与品牌端分别经历了外部环境的压力测试。具体来看，纺织制造 板块受4月关税冲击，短期订单波动带来产能利用率承压，通过经营 ...

Core Insights - By 2025, high participation in mass sports will be a significant highlight of the sports market in China, with over 400 million people engaged in outdoor activities [1] Group 1: Trends in Outdoor Sports - New sports formats such as VR virtual climbing, night hiking, and fluorescent cycling are gaining popularity [3] - High participation rates are noted in ice and snow sports, mountain sports, and water sports, with significant interest in marathons, cycling, triathlons, skiing, and rafting [3] - Hiking-related content on social media platforms has seen massive engagement, with hiking notes receiving 16 billion views, and growth rates of 340% for climbing and 250% for bouldering [3] Group 2: Regional Participation - First-tier and new first-tier cities are leading in outdoor sports participation, with second-tier cities rapidly catching up [7] - A trend is observed where the East China region is central, radiating towards North China and Southwest regions, with emerging sports events like pickleball and triathlons gaining traction in county-level areas such as Gaotang, Jiexi, and Dianjiang [7] Group 3: Growth in Sports Equipment - Sales of skiing poles, goggles, shoes, and snowboards have all increased by over 80%, while sales of trail running shoes have doubled [12] - There is a notable increase in demand for trendy sports equipment, leading to a surge in related rental services, with paddleboard rental searches up by over 470% and group purchase orders increasing by over 315% [12]

Core Insights - The popularity of mountain climbing is increasing, with more people choosing to engage in this activity during their leisure time, as highlighted in the "China Outdoor Sports Industry Development Report (2024-2025)" which indicates a rise in mountain sports enthusiasm for the years 2024-2025 [1] - Social media platforms are witnessing a significant increase in the click-through rates of posts related to hiking, indicating a growing interest in outdoor activities [1] Group 1 - Mountain climbing fulfills various expectations of nature, offering experiences that range from majestic and perilous to serene and beautiful, allowing individuals to escape urban noise and relax in nature [2] - The joy of mountain climbing is not only in the scenic views but also in the satisfaction of reaching the summit, providing a sense of accomplishment and grandeur [2] - Various supportive measures are being implemented across different regions to enhance the mountain climbing experience, such as the "Leaf Viewing Map" in Beijing's Xiangshan Park and free service stations in Wutai Mountain, which provide food, water, and medical supplies for safety [2] Group 2 - The rise in popularity of mountain climbing is a reflection of the broader initiatives for a healthy and beautiful China, contributing to the momentum of Chinese-style modernization [2]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 79, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, with a positive trend observed in recent market movements supported by policy measures [5][7]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Outdoor Sports Theme**: The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have announced support for 49 regions, including Beijing's Pinggu District, to develop high-quality outdoor sports destinations, aiming to enhance the outdoor sports industry nationwide. Related stocks include Sanfu Outdoor (002780) and Yingshi Innovation (688775) [5]. - **Electric Power Equipment Theme**: The intersection of global energy transition and digital transformation is accelerating AI penetration in the power industry. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data center electricity consumption will double by 2030. In China, the State Grid's fixed asset investment exceeded 420 billion yuan from January to September, with an expected annual investment of over 650 billion yuan. Related stocks include Guodian Nanzi (600268) and China West Electric (601179) [5]. - **Energy Storage Theme**: The domestic "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for an installed capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, attracting 250 billion yuan in direct investment. Policies are expected to raise project IRR above 8%. Overseas orders surged by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh. Related stocks include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [5]. Major Capital Inflows - The top ten stocks with significant net inflows include Shenghong Technology (300476) with 164.9 million yuan, Dongshan Precision (002384) with 96.8 million yuan, and Weichai Power (000338) with 86.1 million yuan [8][9]. Major Capital Outflows - The top ten stocks with significant net outflows include TBEA (600089) with -116.9 million yuan, Pingtan Development (000592) with -102.4 million yuan, and Haima Automobile (000572) with -83.3 million yuan [10][20]. Financing and Securities Lending - The top ten stocks with the highest net financing purchases include Cambrian (688256) with 163.9 million yuan and TBEA (600089) with 82.9 million yuan. The top ten stocks with the highest net short selling include Kweichow Moutai (600519) with 1.9 million yuan and Dongfang Electric (600875) with 1.2 million yuan [10][11].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 43, indicating a "neutral" stance [5][9] - Historical trends show that when the sentiment score is below or close to 50, the market tends to receive support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [9] Hot Themes Tracking - **Outdoor Sports Theme**: The National Development and Reform Commission plans to support 49 regions, including Beijing's Pinggu District, as high-quality outdoor sports destinations, aiming to enhance the outdoor sports industry [5] - Related stocks: Sanfu Outdoor (002780), Yingshi Innovation (688775) [5] - **Photoresist Theme**: A team from Peking University has developed a method to significantly reduce defects in photoresists, which could lead to industrial applications [5] - Related stocks: Jingrui Electric Materials (300655), Nanda Optoelectronics (300346) [5] - **Energy Storage Theme**: The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027, attracting 250 billion yuan in direct investment [5] - Related stocks: CATL (300750), Sungrow Power (300274) [5] Capital Flow Analysis - The top net inflow stocks include: - Snowman Group (49.55 million yuan) - Dongshan Precision (46.18 million yuan) - Wanlima (40.86 million yuan) [10] - The top net outflow stocks include: - Sungrow Power (-160.84 million yuan) - Sanhua Intelligent Control (-130.58 million yuan) - Contemporary Amperex Technology (-94.41 million yuan) [12] Industry Insights - The report highlights significant capital movements in various sectors, with notable inflows in the computer and basic chemical industries, while the electric power equipment and medical biology sectors experienced substantial outflows [19][17]

Core Insights - The report indicates a "hot" market sentiment with a composite score of 79, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [6][10] - Key investment themes identified include outdoor sports, photoresist materials, and energy storage, driven by recent government initiatives and technological advancements [6][10] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 79, categorized as "hot," indicating strong investor confidence and market activity [6][10] - Historical trends suggest that when sentiment is below or near 50, the market finds support, while levels above 90 may indicate resistance [10] Investment Themes Outdoor Sports - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced support for 49 high-quality outdoor sports destinations, aiming to enhance the outdoor sports industry [6] - Related companies include Sanfu Outdoor (002780) and Yingshi Innovation (688775) [6] Photoresist Materials - Recent research from Peking University has led to advancements in photoresist materials, potentially reducing defects in production [6] - Relevant companies in this sector are Jingrui Electric Materials (300655) and Nanda Optoelectronics (300346) [6] Energy Storage - The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027, attracting 250 billion yuan in direct investment [6] - Companies positioned to benefit include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [6] Capital Flow Analysis - The report lists the top ten stocks with significant net inflows, highlighting investor interest in companies like Sungrow Power (105,146.49 million yuan) and Sanqi Interactive Entertainment (52,490.64 million yuan) [11] - Conversely, notable net outflows were observed in companies such as BYD (-114,202.31 million yuan) and CATL (-76,529.02 million yuan) [13] Financing and Margin Trading - The report provides insights into financing net purchases, indicating investor optimism, particularly in stocks like Industrial Fulian (87,064.66 million yuan) and Sungrow Power (53,293.26 million yuan) [13] - Margin trading data reveals significant net selling in stocks like Xinyi Technology (1,385.91 million yuan) and China Merchants Bank (588.88 million yuan) [14]

2025 年 11 月 03 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：56 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 1、户外运动主题：国家发展改革委等六部门发布通知，拟将 "北京市平谷区金海湖户外运动目的地"等 49 个地区纳入首 批高质量户外运动目的地建设名单，予以重点支持。此次建 设并非试点示范或挂牌命名，而是聚焦资源禀赋好、基础扎 实的区域，精准配套政策、资金、项目，打造标杆、以点带 面，带动全国户外运动产业提质升级，进一步满足人民群众 多层次、多样化的户外运动和美好生活需要。相关标的：三 夫户外(002780)、影石创新(688775) 2、光刻胶主题：据科技日报，近日，北京大学化学与分子工 程学院彭海琳教授团队及合作者通过冷冻电子断层扫描技 术，首次在原位状态下解析了光刻胶分子在液相环境中的微 观三维结构、界面分布与缠结行为，指导开发出可显著减少 光刻缺陷的产业化方案。相关标的：晶瑞电材（300655）、 南大光电（300346） 相关研究 1、《双融日报》 ...

Core Insights - The "Vibrant Mountain and Water Caravan" event, part of the 2025 China Outdoor Sports Industry Conference, promotes outdoor sports in Yunnan, highlighting its appeal as a training ground and outdoor paradise [5][6][11] Group 1: Event Overview - The event features various activities such as health runs and walking events, aimed at engaging outdoor sports enthusiasts across multiple regions in Yunnan [5][6] - Participants in the activities experience the natural beauty and cultural richness of Yunnan, enhancing the region's reputation as a destination for outdoor sports [5][11] Group 2: Regional Highlights - In Kunming, nearly 625 roller skating enthusiasts participated in an 8-kilometer event along the ecological greenway, showcasing the charm of the city [6] - Over 500 walking enthusiasts gathered in Luoping for a 6-kilometer walking event, emphasizing the area's fresh air and beautiful scenery [7][10] - In Zhaotong, 500 runners enjoyed a health run around a picturesque lake, highlighting the region's outdoor resources and potential for water sports [9][12] - The event in Chuxiong attracted 745 participants, who enjoyed a walking route designed for both adults and families, promoting health and vitality [10] - In Lijiang, 600 runners participated in a health run that combined athleticism with stunning views of the Yulong Snow Mountain [11] - The event in Nujiang saw 725 runners traverse a 5-kilometer route through the scenic canyon, promoting family participation and outdoor engagement [12] - In Diqing, over 600 participants experienced an 8-kilometer health run in a national park, promoting the integration of sports, education, and tourism [13]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 82, indicating an "overheated" market condition. Historical trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or close to 50, the market tends to receive support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [5][9]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Outdoor Sports Theme**: The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have announced support for 49 regions, including Beijing's Pinggu District, to become high-quality outdoor sports destinations. This initiative aims to enhance the outdoor sports industry nationwide. Related stocks include Sanfu Outdoor (002780) and Yingshi Innovation (688775) [5]. - **Photoresist Theme**: A team from Peking University has made significant advancements in understanding the microscopic 3D structure of photoresist molecules, which could lead to reduced defects in the industry. Related stocks include Jingrui Electric Materials (300655) and Nanda Optoelectronics (300346) [5]. - **Energy Storage Theme**: The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027, attracting 250 billion yuan in direct investment. Policies are expected to enhance project IRR to over 8%. Overseas orders have surged by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh. Related stocks include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274) [5]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include: - Shanzigaoke (000981.SZ): 201,990.87 million yuan - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ): 146,500.08 million yuan - XianDao Intelligent (300450.SZ): 120,383.08 million yuan - CATL (300750.SZ): 119,869.80 million yuan [10]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include: - ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ): -172,042.08 million yuan - Xinyi Development (300502.SZ): -72,782.80 million yuan - Yingxin Development (000620.SZ): -65,588.02 million yuan [12]. Industry Performance - The top industries by net inflow include: - SW Electric Equipment: 944,099 million yuan - SW Banking: 155,618 million yuan - SW Non-ferrous Metals: 117,352 million yuan [15]. - The top industries by net outflow include: - SW Electronic: -351,915 million yuan - SW Communication: -416,268 million yuan - SW Defense and Military: -254,682 million yuan [20].

Core Insights - The report indicates a "relatively hot" market sentiment with a composite score of 67, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [4][10]. - Key themes identified for investment opportunities include outdoor sports, photoresist materials, and energy storage [4]. Outdoor Sports Theme - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with five other departments, has announced plans to support the development of 49 high-quality outdoor sports destinations, including the Jin Hai Lake in Beijing's Pinggu District. This initiative aims to enhance the outdoor sports industry nationwide [4]. - Related companies include Sanfu Outdoor (002780) and Yingshi Innovation (688775) [4]. Photoresist Materials Theme - A team from Peking University has successfully analyzed the micro-3D structure and entanglement behavior of photoresist molecules in a liquid phase using cryo-electron tomography, leading to a new industrialization plan that significantly reduces photoresist defects [4]. - Relevant companies in this sector are Jingrui Electric Materials (300655) and Nanda Optoelectronics (300346) [4]. Energy Storage Theme - The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" in China aims for an installed capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, attracting direct investments of 250 billion yuan. Policies are expected to enhance project IRR to over 8%, shifting investment from "mandatory storage" to "proactive profitability" [4]. - International orders for energy storage are projected to increase by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh, indicating a potential shift in supply-demand dynamics [4]. - Key players in this field include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274) [4].