公司多品牌矩阵资源稀缺，主品牌表现稳健，FILA 调整高效，重回向上趋势，户外新品牌延续强劲势 头，公司稀缺且优质的多品牌矩阵组合极具成长潜力，看好未来发展，维持"买入"评级。考虑到26 年 Amer Sports 配售为公司带来一次性非现金利得16 亿元，我们上调26 年利润预测，维持27 年并新增28 年利润预测，预计26-28 年归母净利润分别为156.0/157.4/171.2 亿元（原26 年为140.0 亿元），对应PE 为13 /12 /11 倍，若剔除Amer Sports配售影响，实际26 年净利润为140.0 亿元，26-27 同口径下利润增速 为3%/12%。 公司发布25 年年报，收入利润均为双位数增长，全年派息率50%。25 年公司实现收入802.2亿元，同比 增长13.3%，表现符合预期，归母净利润135.9 亿元，剔除24 年Amer Sports上市及配售事项权益摊薄一 次性利得后，同口径下同比增长13.9%，收入增速持续快于利润增速，表现略超预期，主要由于高利润 率的户外品牌高增长，结构性拉高利润率，以及费用率管控得当、运营效率提升。公司拟派发末期股息 每股1.08 港元，连 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Anta Sports reported a revenue of 802.2 billion RMB for FY2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 135.9 billion RMB, with a comparable growth of 13.9% after excluding one-time gains from the Amer Sports listing in FY2024. The company maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of 50% [6][9] - The main brand, Anta, showed steady growth with a revenue of 347.5 billion RMB, up 3.7% year-on-year, driven by optimized offline channels and improved online operations. FILA brand revenue reached 284.7 billion RMB, growing 6.9% year-on-year, benefiting from product upgrades and e-commerce growth. Other brands saw significant growth, with a revenue increase of 59.2% to 170.0 billion RMB [6] - The company's gross margin slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.0%, while the net profit margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 16.9%. The operating profit margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 23.8% due to effective cost control and operational efficiency [6][14] - The company demonstrated strong cash flow performance, with net operating cash flow of 209.96 billion RMB, up 25.4% year-on-year, and free cash flow of 161.06 billion RMB, up 21.5% year-on-year, supporting its multi-brand and global strategy [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For FY2024 to FY2028, the projected revenues are as follows: 708.3 billion RMB (FY2024), 802.2 billion RMB (FY2025), 893.8 billion RMB (FY2026E), 968.9 billion RMB (FY2027E), and 1,042.8 billion RMB (FY2028E). The corresponding net profits are projected to be 156.0 billion RMB (FY2024), 135.9 billion RMB (FY2025), 156.0 billion RMB (FY2026E), 157.4 billion RMB (FY2027E), and 171.2 billion RMB (FY2028E) [5][17] - The expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for FY2026 to FY2028 are 13, 12, and 11 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) with a target price of HKD 102.6 [1][8]. Core Views - Anta Sports has shown steady growth in its operations, with a revenue increase of 13.26% in 2025, although net profit decreased by 12.88% [7]. - The main brand, Anta, faces challenges in a competitive market but is expected to maintain low single-digit growth in 2026, while FILA and other brands are projected to grow at 5% and over 20% respectively [7][8]. - The company is focused on multi-brand internationalization, which is expected to enhance its resilience against industry cycles despite short-term integration costs from recent acquisitions [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to HKD 80.219 billion, HKD 87.728 billion, and HKD 95.184 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.3%, 9.4%, and 8.5% [6][8]. - Operating profit is expected to grow to HKD 19.091 billion in 2025, with a margin increase to 22.5% [6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at HKD 13.588 billion for 2025, reflecting a decline of 12.9% from the previous year [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 4.86, HKD 5.00, and HKD 5.48 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][8]. Market Position and Strategy - Anta's market share in the Chinese sports market has increased to 21.8% [7]. - The company is actively pursuing product and channel innovations to drive growth, particularly in its main brand [7]. - Recent acquisitions, including a stake in PUMA, are part of a strategy to enhance its multi-brand portfolio and international presence [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Anta Sports' resilience and growth, achieving a revenue increase of 13.3% to RMB 80.219 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025, and a 13.9% rise in shareholder profit to RMB 13.588 billion, despite a complex macro environment and ongoing industry competition [1] - Anta Sports' market share in the Chinese sports goods market increased to 21.8% in 2025 from 20.8% in 2024, maintaining its leading position in the industry and ranking among the top three globally [1] - The company emphasizes a "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy, responding to the shift in consumer behavior towards professional and scenario-based sports consumption, and building a robust brand matrix to ensure stable growth [2] Group 2 - The company believes that "buying well" determines the starting point, "managing well" determines efficiency, and "collaborating well" determines long-term value, focusing on a brand-centric governance model that allows brands to maintain uniqueness and creativity [3] - Anta Sports' unique "brand + retail" business model supports a transferable and replicable global operational management system, enhancing multi-brand collaborative management and global resource integration [3] - The company has established a shared platform that creates scale advantages and collaborative efficiency in supply chain, digitalization, finance, human resources, and risk management, distinguishing itself from traditional single-brand companies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports, with a target price of HKD 98.0, indicating a potential upside of 25.8% from the current price of HKD 77.90 [1][5]. Core Insights - Anta Sports plans to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA for approximately EUR 1.5 billion (equivalent to RMB 12.28 billion), which will make Anta the largest shareholder of PUMA. This acquisition is expected to enhance Anta's global strategy and leverage PUMA's brand value [2][7]. - The overall retail revenue for the group in 2025 is projected to achieve low single-digit positive growth, with the main brand experiencing slight negative growth in Q4 2025 due to seasonal factors and weakening consumer momentum [3][9]. - The operating profit margin (OPM) for various brands is expected to meet initial guidance, with Anta and FILA brands facing potential pressure in 2026 due to increased marketing investments related to major sports events [4][12]. - Revenue forecasts for FY25E to FY27E are updated to RMB 785.3 billion, RMB 860.3 billion, and RMB 942.0 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 132.4 billion, RMB 144.1 billion, and RMB 162.0 billion [5][14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Acquisition Strategy - Anta Sports is set to acquire a significant stake in PUMA, which is anticipated to create synergies and support the company's international expansion efforts [2][7][8]. Brand Performance - The main brand recorded low single-digit negative growth in Q4 2025, while FILA and other brands showed positive growth, with some brands like Descente and KOLON achieving substantial increases [3][9][12]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenue growth rates of 10.9%, 9.6%, and 9.5% for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E, respectively, with net profit growth rates of -15.1%, 8.8%, and 12.4% [5][14][6].

Core Viewpoint - Anta's main brand retail performance faced pressure in Q4 2025, while FILA showed recovery, and all other brands experienced significant growth [1][2] Group 1: Q4 2025 Performance - Anta's main brand retail amount decreased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year in Q4 2025 [1] - FILA brand retail amount increased by a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year in Q4 2025 [1] - Other brands saw retail amounts grow by 35-40% year-on-year in Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - The pressure on Anta's main brand is attributed to weakening domestic consumption momentum and a warm winter affecting sales, along with a delayed peak sales season due to the late Chinese New Year in 2026 [1] - Anta's main brand did not resort to aggressive promotions to boost short-term scale [1] - FILA's recovery is supported by healthy e-commerce growth and a clear brand positioning with a stable management team [1] Group 3: Other Brands Performance - Other brands are expected to maintain high growth, with Descente anticipated to grow rapidly due to the popularity of winter sports and strong brand foundation in professional sports [1] - KAILAS is also expected to see strong growth driven by good outdoor consumption trends and ongoing national expansion efforts [1] Group 4: 2026 Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, with Anta's main brand benefiting from the Lighthouse Plan, continuous store renovations, and expansion into new business models [2] - FILA is projected to continue its growth momentum [2] - Other brands, despite increasing scale, are expected to maintain rapid growth due to competitive strength and industry conditions [2] Group 5: Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be 4.70, 5.12, and 5.79 CNY per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - Given the company's strong competitive position as an industry leader, a PE ratio of 18 times for 2026 is suggested, leading to a target value of 102.81 HKD per share [2] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on these projections [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 77.05 HKD and a target value of 102.81 HKD [4]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the main brand of the company faced pressure, while the FILA brand showed signs of recovery, and other brands maintained high growth rates. The main brand's retail sales experienced a low single-digit decline year-on-year, whereas FILA's retail sales grew in the mid-single digits. Other brands saw retail sales growth of 35-40% year-on-year [8]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, driven by the "Lighthouse Plan," continuous store renovations, and new business models. The FILA brand is anticipated to continue its growth momentum, while other brands are expected to sustain rapid growth despite increasing competition [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4.70, 5.12, and 5.79 CNY, respectively. The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times for 2026, leading to a reasonable value of 102.81 HKD per share [8]. Financial Summary - Main revenue is projected to grow from 62,356 million CNY in 2023 to 94,684 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, 9.4%, 10.0%, and 11.1% respectively [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 19,708 million CNY in 2023 to 29,797 million CNY in 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 10,236 million CNY in 2023 to 16,198 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 34.9% in 2023 followed by a 52.4% increase in 2024 [2]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.9% in 2023, peaking at 25.3% in 2024, and stabilizing around 19.4% to 19.8% in the following years [2].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - Anta's Q4 2025 operational data shows a decline in main brand sales, while FILA and other brands experienced low single-digit negative growth and mid-single-digit positive growth, respectively. For the entire year of 2025, Anta, FILA, and other brands recorded retail sales growth of low single digits, mid-single digits, and 45-50% positive growth [2][3] - Xtep's Q4 2025 operational data indicates that the main brand's retail sales remained flat, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%. The Saucony brand achieved over 30% year-on-year growth in retail sales. For the full year of 2025, Xtep's main brand and Saucony recorded low single-digit and over 30% positive growth in retail sales, respectively [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Anta's Q4 2025 operational data shows a decline in main brand sales, while FILA and other brands experienced low single-digit negative growth and mid-single-digit positive growth, respectively. For the entire year of 2025, Anta, FILA, and other brands recorded retail sales growth of low single digits, mid-single digits, and 45-50% positive growth [2][3] - Xtep's Q4 2025 operational data indicates that the main brand's retail sales remained flat, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%. The Saucony brand achieved over 30% year-on-year growth in retail sales. For the full year of 2025, Xtep's main brand and Saucony recorded low single-digit and over 30% positive growth in retail sales, respectively [2][3] 2. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the SW textile and apparel sector increased by 3.83%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.99% [14] - The top five stocks in the textile and apparel sector by weekly increase were Tianchuang Fashion, Yanjing Co., Mengjie Co., Tanshan Outdoor, and Sanfu Outdoor [14] 3. Industry Data Tracking 3.1. Raw Material Data - The Australian wool market index rose by 6.49% in the week ending January 15, 2026, and has increased by 38.49% since the beginning of 2025 [4][32] - The cotton price index in China decreased slightly, with a year-to-date increase of 1.83% as of January 23, 2026 [26] 3.2. Export Data - In 2025, textile and apparel exports totaled $267.79 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.26% [45] - In December 2025, the export value of oilcloth, tents, and sunshades decreased by 8.89% year-on-year [50] 3.3. End Consumer Data - In December 2025, the online retail sales of the apparel industry decreased by 11.93% year-on-year, with a total of 45.55 billion yuan [3.3.4] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 grew by 0.9% year-on-year, while online retail sales increased by 8.6% [3.3.5]

Core Viewpoint - Anta's main brand experienced a slight decline in retail revenue in Q4 2025, while FILA showed mid-single-digit growth, and other brands recorded a significant 35-40% growth [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Analysis - Anta's main brand Q4 retail revenue saw a low single-digit decline, attributed to external demand and competitive pressures, with e-commerce still in an adjustment phase [1]. - The overall performance for 2025 indicates a low single-digit growth for Anta's main brand, mid-single-digit growth for FILA, and a robust 45-50% growth for other brands [1][2]. - The discount rates for offline sales remained stable at approximately 71%, while online discounts narrowed by 2 percentage points to about 55% [1]. Group 2: Brand Performance - FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth in Q4, with offline sales showing high single-digit growth and online sales experiencing low double-digit growth [2]. - Other brands within the portfolio, such as Descente and KOLON, are expected to maintain strong growth, with Descente growing by 25-30% and KOLON achieving a 55% increase [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to prioritize inventory health and operational quality in 2026, with expectations for the main brand to continue expanding through various channels [3]. - The multi-brand matrix and direct-to-consumer (DTC) model are anticipated to support the company's growth resilience moving forward [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Anta's main brand is experiencing short-term revenue pressure but remains resilient in the medium term, with a projected decline in revenue for Q4 2025 compared to the previous year, while annual revenue shows low single-digit growth [1] - The short-term revenue pressure for the main brand is attributed to a weak overall consumer environment, delayed Spring Festival, weather disruptions, and adjustments in the e-commerce business [1] - Despite challenges in the competitive landscape of the mass sports sector in 2026, Anta's new store formats and continuous product upgrades are expected to provide stable and sustainable growth opportunities in the medium term [1] Group 2 - The Fila brand showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2025, with mid-single-digit growth, and is expected to maintain steady growth starting in 2026 due to a series of brand, product, and channel optimizations [1] - Other brands, primarily Descente and KOLON, experienced impressive revenue growth of 35%-40% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with annual growth of 45%-50%, indicating strong overall performance [1] - The medium-term outlook for the mid-to-high-end sports and outdoor segment remains positive, with expectations that growth for other brands will significantly exceed the overall growth of the sports apparel industry starting in 2026 [1] Group 3 - Short-term operational growth may experience fluctuations, but the medium-term outlook for the company's multi-brand and international competitiveness remains strong, especially with significant events like the Winter Olympics and Asian Games in 2026 [2] - The company is expected to increase brand investments in 2026, while the integration and investment in the Wolf Claw brand may lead to some fluctuations in overall operating profit margins [2] - Based on Q4 operational data and the current state of the sports apparel consumption industry, the company's earnings per share forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 4.71, 5.09, and 5.70 RMB, respectively, with a target price of 113.00 HKD for 2026 based on a 20x PE valuation [2]