25 年主品牌增速短期承压的预期基本充分反映在股价调整之中，我们预计26 年开始主品牌有望逐步改 善。公司今年8 月以来股价持续调整的主要原因之一是市场对安踏主品牌营收增速的一再下调。伴随安 踏品牌季度流水增速从Q1 的高单到Q2 的低单和Q3 的持续低单，市场对主品牌全年营收预期也从最初 的高单下调至中单再到三季度以后的低单。但我们认为短期的承压有消费低迷的整体因素，也有公司对 线下渠道优化和电商团队架构调整的短期冲击，后续随着磨合期的度过，公司26 年起主品牌经营有望 逐步改善，也将为公司估值恢复提供动力。 Fila 保持稳健增长，以迪桑特和可隆为首的其他品牌有望延续高增态势，成为公司经营保持韧性的强大 动力。近期刚结束的双十一活动显示公司旗下Fila、迪桑特和可隆表现出色。其中Fila 位列天猫运动户 外销售第一的位置，迪桑特位列第八、可隆位列天猫户外品类第四的位置。结合之前披露的三季度运营 数据，我们预计25 年全年Fila 流水有望实现中单增长，其他品牌流水有望实现40%以上的增长。 根据公司之前公告以及双十一活动情况，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计2025-2027年每股收益分别为 4.69、5.29 ...

Amer 三季度业绩优异 多品牌战略带来更多 经营韧性 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司之前公告以及双十一活动情况，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.69、5.29 和 6.02 元（原预测为 4.80、5.54 和 6.21 元），参考 可比公司，给予 2025 年 22 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 112.89 港币（1 人民币=1.09 港 币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：消费终端复苏缓慢、运动服饰行业潮流变化及竞争加剧等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 62,356 | 70,826 | 78,573 | 86,489 | 95,347 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.2% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 15,367 | 16,595 | 18,143 | 20,123 | 22,545 | | 同比增长 ( ...

Core Insights - Anta's main brand and FILA recorded low single-digit revenue growth in Q3 2025, with other brands experiencing a growth of 45%-50% [1][2] - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the Anta main brand to low single-digit growth for the year, while maintaining forecasts for other brands [1][3] - The overall revenue projections for the group from 2025 to 2027 are set at 78.06 billion, 86.73 billion, and 95.55 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 10% respectively [3] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand saw low single-digit growth in offline sales and high single-digit growth online, with inventory levels remaining healthy [1][2] - FILA's performance was strong, with mid-single-digit growth in bulk sales and high single-digit growth in e-commerce, maintaining discount levels similar to the previous quarter [2][3] - Other brands like Descente, Kelong, and MAIA reported significant revenue growth, with Kelong achieving a 70% increase and MAIA focusing on differentiated strategies for Asian women's apparel [2][3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is exploring new retail formats and optimizing operational efficiency, including the expansion of outdoor segments and increasing coverage in key commercial areas [1][3] - Anta's international expansion includes a three-year plan to open 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia and the launch of its flagship store in Los Angeles by the end of the year [2] - FILA has launched a tennis strategy and product line, renewing its sponsorship of the China Open and engaging in partnerships with universities for research and development [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Anta Sports [10][11]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand and FILA experienced low single-digit revenue growth in Q3 2025, while other brands saw a significant increase of 45%-50% [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the main brand to low single-digit growth for the year, while maintaining the forecast for other brands [10]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to CNY 13.13 billion, CNY 14.77 billion, and CNY 16.46 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -16%, 12%, and 11% respectively [10]. Revenue Performance - Anta's main brand revenue showed low single-digit growth, with offline sales growing at a low single-digit rate and online sales at a higher single-digit rate [2]. - FILA's revenue also grew at a low single-digit rate, with online sales performing better [3]. - Other brands, including Descente, KOLON, and MAIA, reported substantial revenue growth rates of 30%, 70%, and 45% respectively [4][5][6]. Channel and Market Expansion - The company is exploring new retail formats and optimizing operational efficiency, including the expansion of outdoor segments and increasing coverage in key business districts [10]. - Anta has announced a three-year plan to open 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia and is expanding its presence in the U.S. and European markets [2]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for Anta Sports for 2025-2027 is CNY 78.06 billion, CNY 86.73 billion, and CNY 95.55 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 10% respectively [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at CNY 4.64, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.5 for 2025 and 15 for 2026 [10][11]. Key Financial Metrics - The report indicates a return on equity (ROE) of 24.5% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 41% [6]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately CNY 235.9 billion [6].

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports has shown strong revenue growth in its latest financial report, but concerns about future growth potential for its core brands, Anta and FILA, have led to a decline in stock prices despite positive earnings [4][5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Anta Group achieved revenue of 38.54 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with a net profit of 7.03 billion RMB, up 14.5% [4][9]. - Anta's main brand revenue grew by 5.4% to 16.95 billion RMB, while FILA's revenue increased by 8.6% to 14.18 billion RMB, both reaching historical highs [4][9]. - The overall revenue from other brands surged by 61.1% to 7.41 billion RMB [4][9]. Market Reaction - Following the financial report, Anta's stock price fell by 8.27% within four days, indicating market skepticism regarding the sustainability of growth for its core brands [5][6]. Gross Margin and Online Sales - Anta Group's gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 63.4%, attributed to changes in online discount strategies and an increase in online sales proportion, which rose by 2.4 percentage points to 36.2% [7][9]. Competitive Landscape - The decline in gross margins is not unique to Anta; other domestic sports brands like Li Ning and Xtep have also reported similar trends due to increased discounting and competitive pressures [11][13]. - Nike and Adidas are undergoing strategic adjustments in the Chinese market, with Nike reporting a significant drop in profits in the Greater China region [14][15]. Brand Strategy - Anta is focusing on diversifying its retail strategy by segmenting its store network and introducing a new store format called "Super Anta," aimed at providing a wide range of products at competitive prices [25][26]. - FILA is also experiencing a recovery, with its first financial report under new management showing positive growth, although its gross margin declined by 2.2 percentage points due to increased costs [28][29]. Future Outlook - Anta's management acknowledges that the growth of its main brand has not met initial high single-digit growth targets, primarily due to underperformance from franchise partners and insufficient online sales during key promotional periods [21][22]. - The company is exploring new market opportunities, including expansion into Southeast Asia, although specific revenue contributions from overseas markets have not been disclosed [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports has reported strong financial results for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 38.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and net profit growing by 14.5% to 7.031 billion yuan, despite concerns from investors about future growth potential [1][2]. Financial Performance - Anta's main brand revenue increased by 5.4% to 16.95 billion yuan, while FILA's revenue grew by 8.6% to 14.18 billion yuan, both achieving historical highs [1]. - The total gross margin for Anta Group was 63.4%, a slight decline of 0.7 percentage points, attributed to changes in online discount strategies and an increase in online sales proportion, which rose by 2.4 percentage points to 36.2% [3]. Market Reaction - Following the financial report, Anta's stock price fell by 8.27% within four days, reflecting market concerns regarding the growth momentum of its core brands, compounded by a general decline in the Hong Kong consumer sector [2]. Competitive Landscape - Anta's performance is compared with other domestic brands like Li Ning, which reported a revenue increase of 3.3% to 14.817 billion yuan and a gross margin of 50%, down 0.4 percentage points [4][5]. - Nike's revenue in the Greater China region saw a significant decline, with a 10% drop in global revenue for the fiscal year 2025, and a staggering 86% decrease in net profit for the fourth quarter in the region [6][7]. Brand Strategy - Anta is focusing on diversifying its retail strategy, with plans to segment its store system into five levels to cater to different consumer groups, and has introduced a new store concept called "Super Anta" [13][14]. - FILA is also showing signs of recovery, with a strategic focus on enhancing product quality and functionality, although its gross margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points [17]. Future Outlook - Anta's chairman emphasized the importance of multi-brand strategy, including acquiring brands with strong value and investing in high-potential emerging brands, such as the partnership with Korean fashion group MUSINSA [19]. - The company is also exploring new store formats and optimizing its e-commerce channels to enhance revenue growth [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports reported strong financial results for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 38.54 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and net profit growing by 14.5% to 7.03 billion RMB, despite concerns from investors about future growth potential [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Anta Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 38.54 billion RMB, up 14.3% from 33.74 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [3]. - The main brand, Anta, saw revenue growth of 5.4% to 16.95 billion RMB, while FILA's revenue increased by 8.6% to 14.18 billion RMB [3][15]. - Other brands experienced a significant revenue increase of 61.1%, reaching 7.41 billion RMB [3]. - The overall gross profit margin was 63.4%, a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [2][3]. Market Reaction - Following the financial report, Anta's stock price fell by 8.27% within four days, raising concerns about the growth potential of its core brands, Anta and FILA [2][3]. - The decline in stock price was attributed to broader weakness in the Hong Kong consumer sector [2]. Brand Performance - Anta's main brand and FILA both achieved record high revenues, but the growth rates were below initial expectations [1][14]. - FILA's revenue and net profit showed high single-digit growth, but its gross margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points due to increased costs associated with product quality improvements [20]. Strategic Initiatives - Anta is focusing on diversifying its retail channels and optimizing its store network, with plans to close underperforming stores while opening new ones [16][18]. - The company is also exploring new market segments, including Southeast Asia, and has initiated a strategic partnership with the Korean fashion group MUSINSA to enhance its brand appeal [12][23]. Competitive Landscape - Anta's performance is compared to other domestic brands like Li Ning and Xtep, which also reported varying growth rates and challenges related to market competition and discounting strategies [5][6]. - International brands like Nike and Adidas are facing their own challenges in the Chinese market, with Nike reporting a significant decline in profits in the Greater China region [7][8][10].

Core Insights - Anta Sports reported a mid-year revenue of 38.544 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.031 billion yuan, up 14.5% [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.37 Hong Kong cents per share, with a payout ratio of 50.2% [1] Brand Performance - The main brand showed steady growth, FILA regained momentum, and outdoor brands continued strong growth [1] - Revenue from the main brand reached 16.95 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year; FILA's revenue was 14.18 billion yuan, up 8.6%; other brands generated 7.41 billion yuan, up 61.1% [1] - Operating profit margins for Anta, FILA, and other brands were 23.3%, 27.7%, and 33.2%, respectively, with changes of +1.5pp, -0.9pp, and +3.3pp year-on-year [1] Channel Analysis - Online sales maintained high growth, with e-commerce revenue for the main brand at 6.131 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year [2] - Offline sales showed mixed results, with direct sales up 5.3% to 9.413 billion yuan and wholesale down 10.6% to 1.406 billion yuan [2] - The number of stores for various brands as of June 2025 included 7,187 for Anta Adult, 2,722 for Anta Kids, 2,054 for FILA, and others [2] Operational Efficiency - The company's gross margin slightly decreased by 0.7pp to 63.4%, influenced by product mix and cost strategies [3] - Employee costs, advertising, and R&D expenses were 15.7%, 6.6%, and 2.6% of revenue, respectively, with advertising costs effectively controlled [3] - Operating profit margin increased by 0.6pp to 26.3%, with a stable profit margin of 18.2% after excluding one-time items [3] Future Outlook - Anta is positioned as a leading player in the domestic sportswear market, successfully leveraging opportunities in the outdoor sports sector [4] - The main brand and FILA are expected to maintain steady growth, while outdoor brands like DESCENTE and KOLON are projected to continue strong growth [4] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 13.9 billion, 15.5 billion, and 17.3 billion yuan, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][4][8] Core Views - Anta Sports reported a mid-year revenue of 38.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.031 billion yuan, up 14.5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [4] - The main brand of Anta achieved a revenue of 16.95 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, while the FILA brand generated 14.18 billion yuan, increasing by 8.6% year-on-year. Other brands saw a significant revenue increase of 61.1% [4] - The company is expanding its global presence, having completed the acquisition of the German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin and established a joint venture with MUSINSA to enhance its fashion business in South Korea [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 62.356 billion yuan - 2024A: 70.826 billion yuan (growth rate: 16%) - 2025E: 79.199 billion yuan (growth rate: 12%) - 2026E: 87.632 billion yuan (growth rate: 11%) - 2027E: 96.254 billion yuan (growth rate: 10%) [3][4] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 10.236 billion yuan - 2024A: 15.596 billion yuan (growth rate: 35%) - 2025E: 13.906 billion yuan (growth rate: -11%) - 2026E: 15.539 billion yuan (growth rate: 12%) - 2027E: 17.327 billion yuan (growth rate: 12%) [3][4] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 3.65 yuan - 2024A: 5.56 yuan - 2025E: 4.95 yuan - 2026E: 5.54 yuan - 2027E: 6.17 yuan [3][4] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 24% - 2024A: 28% - 2025E: 20% - 2026E: 19% - 2027E: 17% [3][4] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2023A: 23.9 - 2024A: 15.7 - 2025E: 17.6 - 2026E: 15.7 - 2027E: 14.1 [3][4] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2023A: 4.8 - 2024A: 4.0 - 2025E: 3.2 - 2026E: 2.7 - 2027E: 2.3 [3][4]

Core Insights - Anta Sports achieved a revenue of 38.544 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.9% due to non-recurring gains in the previous year [2] - The growth dynamics within Anta's business segments have shifted, with the "Other Brands" segment (including Descente and Kolon) experiencing a significant revenue increase of 61.1% to 7.412 billion yuan, contrasting with slower growth in the main brands [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Anta's main brand and FILA accounted for 44% and 37% of total revenue, respectively, but both experienced slower growth than the overall company growth rate [2] - Anta's main brand revenue was 16.95 billion yuan, growing by 5.4%, while FILA's revenue was 14.182 billion yuan, growing by 8.6%, marking a decline from previous double-digit growth rates [2][3] E-commerce Performance - E-commerce revenue constituted 34.8% of total revenue, up from 33.8% in the previous year, with online sales increasing by 17.6% year-on-year [3] - However, the expansion of e-commerce has led to a decline in overall gross margin by 0.7%, with both main brands experiencing a drop in gross margin [3][4] Strategic Developments - Anta Sports is advancing its "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy, successfully localizing international brands like Arc'teryx and Descente [4] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for $290 million is aimed at enhancing Anta's international operational capabilities, with the brand positioned between mass and premium markets [4] New Investments - Anta announced a joint investment with Korean fashion group MUSINSA to establish a new company, MUSINSA China, with Anta holding a 40% stake [4][5] - This partnership aims to tap into the trend of merging sports and fashion, targeting younger consumers and expanding Anta's market presence [6][7]