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北汽蓝谷(600733):首次覆盖报告:极狐、享界双品牌战略,开启三年跃升新周期
Western Securities· 2025-08-14 07:00
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 30.8 billion, 58.3 billion, and 78.5 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of +112%, +89%, and +35% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -4 billion, -1.1 billion, and 1 billion CNY for the same period [1][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a core entity under BAIC Group, focusing on the research, manufacturing, and sales of new energy vehicles. It aims to innovate and upgrade its technology and industry through its three brands: ARCFOX, Enjoy, and BEIJING [23][25]. Brand Strategy - The dual-brand strategy of ARCFOX and Enjoy is set to drive a new growth cycle over the next three years, focusing on high-end and personalized vehicle categories. The company is enhancing its product matrix and leveraging partnerships with leading firms like Huawei to boost its technological capabilities [31][39]. ARCFOX Brand - The ARCFOX brand targets the mainstream market below 300,000 CNY, emphasizing scenario-based vehicle design. The brand has seen a significant sales increase, with a 198% year-on-year growth in H1 2025, achieving sales of 53,000 units [2][16]. Enjoy Brand - The Enjoy brand, empowered by Huawei, aims to replicate the success of the AITO brand by offering advanced smart features and competitive pricing. The Enjoy S9 model has shown a stable recovery in monthly sales, reaching over 3,000 units [3][17]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 30.8 billion, 58.3 billion, and 78.5 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of -4 billion, -1.1 billion, and 1 billion CNY. The company is expected to improve its gross margin significantly during this period [4][19]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the automotive industry, focusing on electric and smart vehicles. The strategic collaboration with Huawei is expected to enhance its market competitiveness and brand value [42][59]. Sales Growth - The company anticipates total vehicle sales of 225,000, 390,000, and 500,000 units from 2025 to 2027, with significant contributions from both ARCFOX and Enjoy brands [16][35]. Valuation - The report suggests a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6, 0.8, and 0.6 for the years 2025-2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers in the industry [1][19].