新汽车生态合作，报名中国版CES！ 撰文 | 张 霖郁 编辑 | 黄 大路 设计 | 甄 尤美 2025年5月的某一天，北汽极狐全国经销商400多人被邀请到北京亦庄参观，这里是极狐总部北汽蓝谷的办公大楼。 当时，五一长假刚过，市场卷完一波，极狐销售门店的生意并不理想。 店内现有车型，极狐阿尔法S5前一年上市；考拉首发两年前，2024年推了新版；极狐阿尔法T6和S6刚上市一个月，量还没上来。 那天，极狐销售管理层带着经销商看了未来数月和一年内要发布的新车型，4款新车摆放在展区内，其中就有数月后上市的爆款T1和中期改款阿 尔法T5。此外，管理层还介绍了几款规划中的新车。 那次的参观中，刚出任北汽集团首席设计官8个月的罗伟基的照片出现在展区，同时被介绍的还有他上任后完成的首款概念车Arcfox 77°。这款 车最先出现在一个月前的上海车展。 "极狐组织这次活动是想提振我们的信心，毕竟4月份极狐只卖了7000多辆。说白了，当时我们不知道这个品牌以后能不能赚钱。"一位当时在场 的经销商告诉《汽车商业评论》。 极狐是北汽集团2016年成立的新能源品牌，享界没有推出前，极狐可以说是北汽集团唯一的新能源"亲儿子"，8年后即2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The MPV market in China is undergoing a significant transformation driven by the rise of new energy vehicles, leading to intense competition among fuel, hybrid, and electric models, with the boundaries between commercial and family MPVs becoming increasingly blurred [3][5][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2023, the Denza D9 surpassed traditional competitors like the Buick GL8 and Honda Odyssey to become the annual sales champion in the MPV category, achieving nearly 120,000 units sold [3][4]. - The competition in the MPV market has intensified, with new entrants in the hybrid and electric segments, leading to a decline in sales for traditional fuel MPVs [5][7][9]. - The shift from fuel to hybrid and electric models represents a major change in the MPV market, with hybrid models currently being the most significant variable and growth driver [9][18]. Group 2: Technology Competition - The MPV market is characterized by a "Three Kingdoms" scenario, where fuel, hybrid, and electric vehicles coexist and compete for market share, each with unique advantages [6][9][18]. - Hybrid MPVs are gaining traction by addressing the high fuel consumption of traditional models and the range anxiety associated with electric vehicles, thus appealing to a broader consumer base [9][18]. - Electric MPVs, while still in the exploratory phase in terms of sales, are seen as the ultimate evolution of MPV technology, offering superior space utilization and smart features [14][18]. Group 3: User Positioning - The distinction between commercial and family MPVs is fading, leading to a new market segment focused on "suitable for both business and family," which is becoming the largest growth point [20][22]. - Traditional fuel MPVs like the Buick GL8 and Toyota Sienna maintain strong market positions due to their reliability and established user bases, particularly in business settings [12][20]. - Family MPVs are experiencing significant growth due to changing demographics and consumer preferences, with brands like GAC Trumpchi focusing on family-oriented features [22][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The MPV market is expected to evolve into a competition based on comprehensive strength, where companies that can effectively integrate technology and understand user needs will dominate [27]. - The current changes in the MPV market reflect broader trends in the Chinese automotive industry, emphasizing innovation and user-centric product development [25][27]. - The MPV market is entering a new era filled with opportunities for consumers and challenges for manufacturers, marking a departure from previous stability [27].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 30.8 billion, 58.3 billion, and 78.5 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of +112%, +89%, and +35% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -4 billion, -1.1 billion, and 1 billion CNY for the same period [1][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a core entity under BAIC Group, focusing on the research, manufacturing, and sales of new energy vehicles. It aims to innovate and upgrade its technology and industry through its three brands: ARCFOX, Enjoy, and BEIJING [23][25]. Brand Strategy - The dual-brand strategy of ARCFOX and Enjoy is set to drive a new growth cycle over the next three years, focusing on high-end and personalized vehicle categories. The company is enhancing its product matrix and leveraging partnerships with leading firms like Huawei to boost its technological capabilities [31][39]. ARCFOX Brand - The ARCFOX brand targets the mainstream market below 300,000 CNY, emphasizing scenario-based vehicle design. The brand has seen a significant sales increase, with a 198% year-on-year growth in H1 2025, achieving sales of 53,000 units [2][16]. Enjoy Brand - The Enjoy brand, empowered by Huawei, aims to replicate the success of the AITO brand by offering advanced smart features and competitive pricing. The Enjoy S9 model has shown a stable recovery in monthly sales, reaching over 3,000 units [3][17]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 30.8 billion, 58.3 billion, and 78.5 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of -4 billion, -1.1 billion, and 1 billion CNY. The company is expected to improve its gross margin significantly during this period [4][19]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the automotive industry, focusing on electric and smart vehicles. The strategic collaboration with Huawei is expected to enhance its market competitiveness and brand value [42][59]. Sales Growth - The company anticipates total vehicle sales of 225,000, 390,000, and 500,000 units from 2025 to 2027, with significant contributions from both ARCFOX and Enjoy brands [16][35]. Valuation - The report suggests a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6, 0.8, and 0.6 for the years 2025-2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers in the industry [1][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is transitioning from a sales champion to a technology pioneer in the electric vehicle market, having established itself as China's first independent electric vehicle manufacturer through its subsidiary, BAIC New Energy [1] - The collaboration with Huawei aims to develop next-generation intelligent connected electric vehicle technologies, with the first model, the Xiangjie S9, set to launch in August 2024 [1][3] - The company is focusing on the synergistic development of its two brands, Xiangjie and Arcfox, to create a diversified product matrix that includes high-end, mid-range, and mass-market vehicles [2] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2009, the company has shifted its strategic focus towards high-end intelligent electric vehicles since its major restructuring in 2018 [1] - The company has signed a cooperation agreement with Huawei to jointly develop advanced vehicle technologies [1] Brand Development - The company is developing a diversified product matrix with three product lines: Arcfox Alpha (mid to high-end), Arcfox Beta (mass market), and Xiangjie (luxury) [2] - The Arcfox brand has seen significant sales growth, with 2024 sales expected to reach 113,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, and Arcfox sales projected at 81,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 169.9% [2] Product Launches - The Xiangjie S9, a luxury intelligent electric vehicle, will be priced starting at 399,800 yuan, aiming to compete with established luxury brands [3] - The launch of the Xiangjie S9 range-extended version in April 2025 is expected to alleviate consumer range anxiety and boost sales [3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 14.512 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, but reported a net loss of 6.948 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 28.7% [8] - The introduction of the Xiangjie S9 range-extended version is anticipated to improve the company's profitability [3][8] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 32.23 billion yuan, 48.26 billion yuan, and 74.16 billion yuan, respectively, with expected EPS of -1.0, -0.4, and 0.2 yuan [9] - The company is expected to improve its profitability as it expands its product matrix and enhances its market presence in the high-end electric vehicle segment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the intense competition in the automotive industry, emphasizing that companies must continue to "fight" for market share, even if it leads to losses. It uses BAIC Blue Valley as a case study to illustrate the disparity in performance among different automakers, where increased sales do not necessarily translate to improved financial health [1][2]. Group 1: BAIC Blue Valley's Performance - BAIC Blue Valley is projected to incur a loss of 2.2 to 2.45 billion yuan despite a 139.73% year-on-year increase in sales, reaching 67,000 units in the first half of 2025 [1][4]. - The company reported a net loss of 9.61 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a projected loss of 12.69 to 15.19 billion yuan in Q2, indicating that increased sales have not improved operational performance [4]. - In 2024, BAIC Group's revenue, gross profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.75%, 19.35%, and 68.6%, respectively, with BAIC Blue Valley alone losing 4.44 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by BAIC Blue Valley - The company attributes its anticipated losses to high R&D investments, which surged by 48.22% to 3.191 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 21.99% of revenue [4]. - BAIC Blue Valley doubled its dealer network and increased service centers to 226, with sales expenses reaching 1.821 billion yuan in 2024, indicating aggressive market expansion efforts [4]. - Despite a 91.7% and 25.3% year-on-year increase in production and sales in June, the monthly sales remain below the breakeven point of 30,000 to 40,000 units per brand [4][5]. Group 3: Overall Industry Context - The article notes that while some domestic brands show impressive growth figures, their overall scale remains limited, failing to offset the losses from joint ventures [7]. - The ongoing restructuring within BAIC Blue Valley, including leadership changes and strategic shifts, reflects the urgency to adapt to the rapidly evolving market [9]. - The company has initiated a 6 billion yuan capital increase plan, primarily aimed at supporting its cash flow and funding new energy vehicle development [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Chinese automotive industry, particularly focusing on the struggles of Beiqi Blue Valley (北汽蓝谷) amidst fierce competition and financial losses despite increased sales figures [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Beiqi Blue Valley's sales in the first half of 2025 increased by 139.73% year-on-year, reaching 67,000 units, but the company is still expected to incur a loss of 2.2 to 2.45 billion yuan [3][5]. - In Q1 2025, Beiqi Blue Valley reported sales of 28,000 units with revenue of 3.773 billion yuan, resulting in a net loss of 961 million yuan after deductions [5]. - The company's R&D investment surged by 48.22% in 2024, totaling 3.191 billion yuan, which accounted for 21.99% of its revenue [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall automotive market in China is experiencing intense competition, with companies forced to "fight" for market share [2][8]. - Beiqi Group's total vehicle sales in the first half of 2025 reached 817,000 units, a 6% increase year-on-year, with commercial vehicles performing particularly well [7]. - The sales of joint venture brands are declining, while the growth in domestic fuel and new energy vehicles is insufficient to offset the losses from joint ventures [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Beiqi Blue Valley is undergoing a significant restructuring, with leadership changes and strategic shifts aimed at revitalizing its electric vehicle segment [11]. - The company has faced continuous losses since its IPO in 2018, accumulating over 30 billion yuan in losses, which raises concerns for potential investors [11]. - The reliance on profits from joint ventures and commercial vehicles to support the electric vehicle division indicates a precarious financial situation [11].

Core Viewpoint - Beiqi Blue Valley is facing significant financial challenges, with projected losses continuing into 2025, raising concerns about management decisions amidst ongoing operational struggles [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Beiqi Blue Valley expects a net profit loss of between -24.5 billion to -22 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a non-recurring net profit loss of -24.8 billion to -22.3 billion yuan [1][2]. - Cumulative losses since its reverse merger in 2018 have exceeded 300 billion yuan, with a reported loss of approximately 69.48 billion yuan in 2024, marking a historical high [1][4]. Management Decisions - Despite the substantial losses, key executives have received significant salary increases, with one executive's salary rising from 730,000 yuan to 1.48 million yuan, a 103% increase [4][5]. - The company has emphasized cost control as a top priority, labeling it a "top management project," yet the salary increases raise questions about management accountability [4][5]. Sales and Market Performance - In the first half of the year, Beiqi Blue Valley's sales reached 67,152 units, a year-on-year increase of 139.73%, although June sales saw a significant month-on-month decline of 30% [6][9]. - New models, such as the Arcfox αT6 and αS6, have faced delivery delays, leading to customer complaints and potential damage to brand reputation [6][8]. Financing Activities - The company's market capitalization has fallen to around 42 billion yuan, nearing the total direct financing amount of 41.3 billion yuan since its listing [9]. - Beiqi Blue Valley has initiated a new round of financing, aiming to raise 6 billion yuan for the development of new energy vehicle projects and AI-driven systems [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company is implementing a dual-brand strategy, aiming for significant revenue and profit growth by 2025-2027 through structural optimization and cost reduction measures [1][3]. Group 1: Dual-Brand Strategy and Financial Performance - The company, Beiqi Blue Valley, was the first domestic electric vehicle stock listed in 2018 and is now focusing on a dual-brand strategy for parallel development [1]. - The company has set a three-year leap plan from 2025 to 2027, prioritizing volume increase and profit improvement through structural optimization and cost control [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a 151% year-on-year revenue growth, a 4.1 percentage point increase in gross margin, and a reduction in net loss by 60 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Product Recognition - The Xiangjie brand is expected to replace joint venture high-end sedans, as it has established recognition among consumers, being perceived as a premium brand alongside BBA [1]. - The launch of the Xiangjie S9 extended-range version has led to significant sales improvements, indicating a strong market acceptance of the brand [2]. - The company is poised to capture market share from joint venture brands due to the limited supply of high-end sedans from domestic brands [2]. Group 3: Channel Expansion and Sales Growth - The company has doubled the number of its offline stores to 394 by the end of 2024, achieving 100% coverage in cities of tier three and above [3]. - The integration of new media strategies has effectively increased brand awareness and translated into market sales, with over 13,500 units sold in May 2025, surpassing December 2024 peak season data [3]. - The company anticipates continued monthly sales growth due to an expanded product lineup and enhanced channel strategies [3]. Group 4: Revenue Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 38.39 billion, 59.76 billion, and 76.57 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 1.1, 0.7, and 0.5 [3].

Core Insights - The MPV market, previously niche, is experiencing growth driven by new energy vehicles, with companies like Wei brand launching luxury family-oriented models [1] - The shift in consumer demand towards family-oriented vehicles is influenced by changing family structures and lifestyle diversification, leading to a resurgence in the MPV market [1][2] - The competition in the MPV segment is intensifying as domestic manufacturers pivot from traditional commercial models to focus on family needs, supported by government policies encouraging larger family vehicles [2] Industry Trends - The MPV market is transitioning from a commercial focus to a family-oriented approach, with significant investments in R&D for new energy platforms [2] - The introduction of new energy MPVs is expected to capture a substantial market share, with projections indicating that by April 2025, half of the top 10 MPV models will be electric [2] - The demand for MPVs is bolstered by rising consumer spending and the implementation of two-child and three-child policies, which are increasing the need for larger vehicles [2] Competitive Landscape - Despite the growth of new energy MPVs, many models still have monthly sales around a thousand units, indicating a competitive market with room for growth [3] - Traditional fuel MPVs from joint ventures continue to dominate the market, with models like the Toyota Sienna leading in sales [3] - Recent sales data shows that while new energy models like the Tengshi D9 are performing well, established fuel models still hold significant market share [3]