柯拉特龙乳膏剂Winlevi®

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交银国际:首予三生制药(01530)“买入”评级 目标价27港元
智通财经网· 2025-06-20 01:34
Core Viewpoint - Company is expected to achieve a revenue and net profit CAGR of 10% and 15% respectively from 2024 to 2026, driven by the sustained growth of existing major products like Tebiou and Mandi, as well as the rapid market entry of new products [1] Group 1: Existing Core Products - The competitive landscape for the core product Tebiou is favorable, with expectations for continued sales performance exceeding forecasts [2] - Tebiou is the only drug approved for the CIT indication globally, with potential to replace IL-11 class competitors and increase market share [2] - The sales CAGR for Tebiou is projected to reach 11% from 2024 to 2026, with a long-term sales peak expected to reach 7 billion RMB [2] Group 2: Mandi's Growth Potential - Mandi is anticipated to maintain sales growth over a long period, with a peak expected to reach 2.5 billion RMB [3] - The growth is driven by a large and increasingly younger population suffering from hair loss, as well as a dual-channel marketing strategy enhancing brand recognition [3] - The introduction of new products like Winlevi® and semaglutide is expected to leverage Mandi's established brand and commercialization channels for rapid market entry [3] Group 3: Innovation Pipeline - The company is on the verge of a product innovation phase, with 30 products in the pipeline as of Q1 2025, 12 of which are expected to be approved in China by 2025-2027 [4] - The focus is on rapid iteration in key therapeutic areas such as hematology, oncology, autoimmune diseases, and metabolic disorders [4] - A significant licensing agreement with Pfizer for the self-developed PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707, with a total transaction value of up to 6.05 billion USD, underscores the company's drug development capabilities [4]