Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant shift in the hair transplant industry with the introduction of a "taxi-style pricing scheme" by the National Medical Insurance Administration, moving away from the controversial fixed-price model to a per-follicle pricing system [1] - The hair transplant industry is currently facing challenges, as exemplified by Yonghe's financial performance, which has shown continuous losses since its IPO in 2021, with net profits of 120 million yuan, -85.85 million yuan, -546 million yuan, and -226 million yuan from 2021 to 2024 [1] - In contrast, the market for hair loss treatment drugs, particularly Minoxidil, is thriving, with Mandey's sales revenue projected to reach 1.337 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 18.9% [1] Group 2 - Mandey has maintained a dominant market position, with over 50% market share in 2024, and has consistently held more than 70% market share from 2017 to 2022 [4] - The younger demographic is increasingly affected by hair loss, with over 2.5 billion people in China experiencing this issue, and 74.6% of them being born in the 1980s and 1990s [6] - The rise of Minoxidil products is attributed to the younger generation's preference for scientifically validated treatments, with Mandey and Dafeixin being the two leading brands in the market [8][12] Group 3 - Mandey has successfully penetrated both offline and online markets, establishing partnerships with over 2,000 public medical institutions and 90,000 retail pharmacies, while also achieving over 60% of its sales through e-commerce channels [10][11] - The introduction of new Minoxidil products, such as Mandey's foam formulation, has enhanced its market competitiveness, with the foam being the only approved formulation in China that minimizes skin irritation [9] - The overall hair health market in China has grown significantly, from 58.29 billion yuan in 2020 to 79.55 billion yuan in 2023, with projections to exceed 116.54 billion yuan by 2028 [20] Group 4 - The entry of new players and technological advancements in the Minoxidil market have led to increased competition, with companies like Lunan Pharmaceutical launching new products that challenge traditional brands like Dafeixin [24][25] - Dafeixin, despite its long-standing presence in the market, is facing challenges due to the emergence of new competitors and a decline in its market share, with a reported revenue of 2.971 billion yuan in 2024, down 18.06% year-on-year [26] - The article concludes that the Minoxidil market's explosive growth is driven by a younger, more educated consumer base that prioritizes effective and scientifically validated treatment options [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - Company is expected to achieve a revenue and net profit CAGR of 10% and 15% respectively from 2024 to 2026, driven by the sustained growth of existing major products like Tebiou and Mandi, as well as the rapid market entry of new products [1] Group 1: Existing Core Products - The competitive landscape for the core product Tebiou is favorable, with expectations for continued sales performance exceeding forecasts [2] - Tebiou is the only drug approved for the CIT indication globally, with potential to replace IL-11 class competitors and increase market share [2] - The sales CAGR for Tebiou is projected to reach 11% from 2024 to 2026, with a long-term sales peak expected to reach 7 billion RMB [2] Group 2: Mandi's Growth Potential - Mandi is anticipated to maintain sales growth over a long period, with a peak expected to reach 2.5 billion RMB [3] - The growth is driven by a large and increasingly younger population suffering from hair loss, as well as a dual-channel marketing strategy enhancing brand recognition [3] - The introduction of new products like Winlevi® and semaglutide is expected to leverage Mandi's established brand and commercialization channels for rapid market entry [3] Group 3: Innovation Pipeline - The company is on the verge of a product innovation phase, with 30 products in the pipeline as of Q1 2025, 12 of which are expected to be approved in China by 2025-2027 [4] - The focus is on rapid iteration in key therapeutic areas such as hematology, oncology, autoimmune diseases, and metabolic disorders [4] - A significant licensing agreement with Pfizer for the self-developed PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707, with a total transaction value of up to 6.05 billion USD, underscores the company's drug development capabilities [4]

Group 1 - The company signed an exclusive agreement with Pfizer for the global development, production, and commercialization rights of its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, excluding mainland China, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion [1] - The agreement also includes a tiered sales revenue sharing based on product sales in the licensed regions, and Pfizer will purchase $100 million worth of common stock in the company upon the agreement's effective date [1] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 2.328 billion, 2.612 billion, and 2.938 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.97, 1.09, and 1.23 yuan per share, resulting in a current PE of 9.3, 8.3, and 7.4 times [1] Group 2 - SSGJ-707 has shown excellent ORR and DCR in the treatment of NSCLC patients, indicating its best-in-class potential, and has received breakthrough therapy designation from the National Medical Products Administration for first-line treatment of PD-L1 positive locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC [2] - The company is advancing clinical research for SSGJ-707 in other areas, including colorectal cancer and gynecological tumors, and has received FDA IND approval [2] - The company’s existing products, such as Tebentafusp, are expected to see growth due to successful negotiations for zero price reduction in 2024 and the addition of new indications, contributing to cash flow [2]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between 3SBio and Pfizer for SSGJ-707 marks a significant milestone in the Chinese biopharmaceutical industry, with a total upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments reaching up to $4.8 billion, indicating strong market confidence in the drug's potential [1][2]. Group 1: Licensing Agreement and Financial Implications - 3SBio has granted Pfizer global development, production, and commercialization rights for SSGJ-707 outside of mainland China while retaining rights for mainland China and granting Pfizer commercialization options [1]. - The agreement includes a non-refundable upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion based on development, regulatory approvals, and sales [1]. - Additionally, 3SBio will receive a tiered sales royalty based on product sales in the licensed regions [1]. Group 2: Clinical Development and Pipeline - SSGJ-707 has shown significant anti-tumor activity and good safety in Phase II clinical trials, positioning it as a potential best-in-class therapy [2]. - The drug is currently undergoing four Phase II clinical studies in China, targeting various cancers including PD-L1 positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and advanced gynecological tumors [2]. - Future catalysts for SSGJ-707 include Pfizer's overseas clinical progress, advancements in domestic Phase III trials, and data releases from major conferences like ASCO [2]. Group 3: Existing Product Portfolio and Growth Potential - 3SBio's existing core products are mature and leading in their respective segments, with expected stable growth [2]. - Key products include Terbinafine, which is the company's top-selling product, and Erythropoietin, which has new indications covered by insurance, opening up significant market potential [2]. - The company is also focusing on oral paclitaxel and other promising candidates in its pipeline, indicating a robust growth strategy [3]. Group 4: Financial Forecast and Market Valuation - The projected peak sales for SSGJ-707 are estimated at $8.5 billion, with a 10% sales royalty contributing to a market value of approximately 35 billion [4]. - The domestic peak sales are estimated at $5 billion, contributing an additional 15 billion in market value [4]. - The total target market capitalization is around 80 billion, with significant adjustments to net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting strong growth expectations [4].

707 重磅 BD 授权辉瑞，公司发展迈向新征 程 买入（维持） 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·药品及生物科技(HS) 三生制药（01530.HK） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,836 | 9,108 | 19,229 | 13,174 | 14,885 | | 同比(%) | 14.08 | 16.24 | 111.13 | (31.49) | 12.98 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,549 | 2,090 | 9,908 | 4,474 | 5,169 | | 同比(%) | (19.09) | 34.93 | 373.98 | (54.85) | 15.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.65 | 0.87 | 4.13 | 1.87 | 2.15 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.43 | 21.07 | 4.45 | 9.85 | 8.52 | [Table_T ...

三生制药（1530.HK）授权事件点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 授权辉瑞重磅交易落地，看好 707 具有 BIC 潜力 2025 年 05 月 22 日 ➢ SSGJ-707 授权辉瑞，首付款高达 12.5 亿美元。5 月 20 日，三生制药 （01530.HK）宣布，公司及附属子公司沈阳三生、三生国健与辉瑞签署协议，将 向辉瑞独家授予公司自主研发的突破性 PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体 SSGJ-707 在 全球（不包括中国内地）的开发、生产、商业化权利。公司及沈阳三生将保留 SSGJ- 707 在中国内地的开发、生产、商业化权利，并基于届时商定的财务条款授予辉 瑞对 SSGJ-707 在中国内地开展商业化的选择权。根据协议，三生制药将获得 12.5 亿美元不可退还且不可抵扣的首付款，以及最高可达 48 亿美元的开发、监 管批准和销售里程碑付款。公司还将根据授权地区的产品销售额收取两位数百分 比的梯度销售分成。此外，辉瑞将于协议生效日认购三生制药价值 1 亿美元的普 通股股份。 ➢ 看好 SSGJ-707 具有 BIC 潜力，创新管线迎来收获期。SSGJ-707 是三生制 药基 ...

➢ 投资建议：公司核心管线 BD 落地带来业绩弹性，我们上调公司盈利预测， 预计公司 2025-2027 年营业总收入分别为 182.44/127.52/147.31 亿元；归母 净利润分别为 85.75/34.13/41.02 亿元，对应 EPS 分别为 3.57/1.42/1.71 元， 维持"推荐"评级。 ➢ 风险提示：集采风险，市场竞争加剧风险，政策变化风险，产品研发不及预 期风险，仿制药风险。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 三生制药（1530.HK）授权事件点评 授权辉瑞重磅交易落地，看好 707 具有 BIC 潜力 2025 年 05 月 22 日 ➢ SSGJ-707 授权辉瑞，首付款高达 12.5 亿美元。5 月 20 日，三生制药 （01530.HK）宣布，公司及附属子公司沈阳三生、三生国健与辉瑞签署协议，将 向辉瑞独家授予公司自主研发的突破性 PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体 SSGJ-707 在 全球（不包括中国内地）的开发、生产、商业化权利。公司及沈阳三生将保留 SSGJ- 707 在中国内地的开发、生产、商业化权利，并基于届时商定的财务条款授予辉 瑞对 SSGJ ...

相关研究报告 医药生物/生物制品 三生制药（01530.HK） 2025 年 05 月 22 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/5/21 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 20.850 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 22.000/5.470 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 500.10 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 500.10 | | 总股本(亿股) | 23.99 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 23.99 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 134.69 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 三生制药 恒生指数 《核心品种持续发力，多款创新药进 入收获期—港股公司首次覆盖报告》 -2025.3.27 与辉瑞就 SSGJ-707 达成授权，创新价值弹性兑现 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 余汝意（分析师） | 余克清（分析师） | 刘艺（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | yukeqing@kysec.cn | ...

SSGJ-707 临床效果获国际认可，财务回报助力公司研发体系升级。SSGJ-707 是三生制药基于CLF2 专 利平台开发的靶向PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体，可同时抑制PD-1 和VEGF 双靶点。产品潜力大：1）II 期 临床阶段性分析数据显示，SSGJ-707 在NSCLC 患者的治疗上获得了优异的ORR 和DCR，无论单药还 是与化疗联用，均展示出显著的抗肿瘤活性和良好的安全性，具有best-in-class 的潜力。2）今年4 月获 CDE 突破性治疗药物认定，适应症为一线治疗PD-L1 表达阳性的局部晚期或转移性非小细胞肺癌。此 前，SSGJ-707 已获得FDA 的IND 批准。3）SSGJ-707 用于治疗结直肠癌、妇科肿瘤等领域的临床研究 也在推进中。此次合作证明SSGJ-707优异的临床效果已获得国际顶尖认可，同时验证了公司自主创新 研发体系的国际竞争力，显著提升了公司在肿瘤治疗领域的全球话语权，有力地推进了公司的国际化步 伐。此外，此次合作也将为三生制药带来强劲的财务回报，助力公司研发体系升级，推动公司更好地融 入全球生物医药产业价值链。 机构：国盛证券 研究员：张金洋/胡偌碧/张玉 ...

特比澳、蔓迪等核心产品高速增长，有望支撑公司未来主业稳健增长。特比澳24 年销售50.6 亿元，同 比保持20.4%高增长，市占率34.3%，且24 年医保谈判成功零降价续约并新增儿童ITP 适应症，未来有 望持续增长。促红素双品牌24 年销售10.2亿元，同比+8.3%，市占率42%稳居第一。蔓迪生发24 年销售 13.4 亿元，同比+18.9%，尤其24H2 蔓迪销售恢复高增长，后续通过不断开发新系列品种，品牌销售有 望持续增长。此外，公司不断与众多药企达成创新合作，例如HER3/EGFR 双抗ADC、HER2 ADC、克 立福替尼、口服紫杉醇、GLP1 等，有望提供业绩增量。 盈利预测与评级：考虑12.5 亿美金首付款于25 年确认，预计公司归母净利润分别为97.88/29.88/34.72 亿 元，同比增速分别为368.2%/-69.5%/16.2%，当前股价对应PE 分别为4/14/12 倍。25 年公司经调整净利 润有望达23 亿元，参考瀚森制药、石药集团、康哲药业、中国生物制药等可比公司，给予10 倍PE，主 业合理估值约230 亿元。本次BD 交易金额超预期，我们上调707 双抗海外峰值至50 ...