消息面上，交银国际指出，公司核心品种特比澳作为指南重点推荐、目前全球唯一获批用于CIT适应症 的特异性升板药物，该行看好其持续替代IL-11类竞品、销量市场份额增长的潜力。同时，特比澳当前 竞争格局良好，中短期内仿制药上市可能性较小，定价压力有限。2023-24年医保谈判相继解除CIT适应 症报销范围、纳入儿童ITP适应症，但医保支付标准保持不变。该行认为，当前市场对特比澳的后续增 长空间仍有较大低估，预计2024-26年产品销售CAGR有望达到11%，仍是公司未来三年业绩的最大驱动 力之一，产品长期销售峰值将达到70亿元（人民币，下同）。 此外，创新管线蓄势待发，BD出海+新品上市推动增量价值实现：公司即将迎来创新产品收获期。截至 1Q25，公司管线在研产品数量达30个，其中有12款已经/有望2025-27年在中国内地获批上市，在血液/ 肿瘤、自免、肾科、皮肤/代谢四大潜力领域有望实现快速迭代，从当前单一大品种快速成长为多元化 产品矩阵。2025年5月，公司与辉瑞就自主研发的PD-1/VEGF双抗SSGJ-707达成授权协议，交易总金额 最高可达60.5亿美元，居于同类榜首，MNC的背书验证了公司自研平台的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company is expected to achieve a revenue and net profit CAGR of 10% and 15% respectively from 2024 to 2026, driven by the sustained growth of existing major products like Tebiou and Mandi, as well as the rapid market entry of new products [1] Group 1: Existing Core Products - The competitive landscape for the core product Tebiou is favorable, with expectations for continued sales performance exceeding forecasts [2] - Tebiou is the only drug approved for the CIT indication globally, with potential to replace IL-11 class competitors and increase market share [2] - The sales CAGR for Tebiou is projected to reach 11% from 2024 to 2026, with a long-term sales peak expected to reach 7 billion RMB [2] Group 2: Mandi's Growth Potential - Mandi is anticipated to maintain sales growth over a long period, with a peak expected to reach 2.5 billion RMB [3] - The growth is driven by a large and increasingly younger population suffering from hair loss, as well as a dual-channel marketing strategy enhancing brand recognition [3] - The introduction of new products like Winlevi® and semaglutide is expected to leverage Mandi's established brand and commercialization channels for rapid market entry [3] Group 3: Innovation Pipeline - The company is on the verge of a product innovation phase, with 30 products in the pipeline as of Q1 2025, 12 of which are expected to be approved in China by 2025-2027 [4] - The focus is on rapid iteration in key therapeutic areas such as hematology, oncology, autoimmune diseases, and metabolic disorders [4] - A significant licensing agreement with Pfizer for the self-developed PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707, with a total transaction value of up to 6.05 billion USD, underscores the company's drug development capabilities [4]

三生PD-1/VEGF 双抗（707） 12.5 亿美金首付款授权辉瑞，创新能力得到验证 三生双抗成功授权辉瑞，首付款创新高。5 月20 日，三生制药宣布将PD-1/VEGF 双抗SSGJ-707 的全球 （不包含中国内地）开发、生产、商业化权利授予辉瑞，总交易金额最高可达60.5 亿美元（含12.5 亿首 付款，总额最多为48 亿美元的潜在付款，创国产创新药出海首付纪录），以及根据授权地区产品销售 额计算得到的两位数百分比的梯度销售分成，辉瑞同时1 亿美元战略入股。未来辉瑞可能重点扩展非小 细胞肺癌及结直肠癌领域。 机构：中信建投证券 研究员：贺菊颖/袁清慧/魏佳奥 核心观点 三生制药在创新药国际化合作与临床进展上双获突破：5 月20 日与辉瑞达成 PD-1/VEGF 双抗 SSGJ-707 海外权益授权，总金额最高达 61.5 亿美元（含 1 亿美元战略入股），创本土双抗出海重磅纪录；6 月1 日 ASCO 公布该药单药治疗晚期 NSCLC 的 II期数据，鳞癌/非鳞癌客观缓解率分别达75%/64 %，疾病 控制率97%，且 3 级以上治疗相关不良反应仅24.1%。此次合作充分体现公司双抗平台的临床价值， ...

Group 1 - The company signed an exclusive agreement with Pfizer for the global development, production, and commercialization rights of its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, excluding mainland China, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion [1] - The agreement also includes a tiered sales revenue sharing based on product sales in the licensed regions, and Pfizer will purchase $100 million worth of common stock in the company upon the agreement's effective date [1] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 2.328 billion, 2.612 billion, and 2.938 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.97, 1.09, and 1.23 yuan per share, resulting in a current PE of 9.3, 8.3, and 7.4 times [1] Group 2 - SSGJ-707 has shown excellent ORR and DCR in the treatment of NSCLC patients, indicating its best-in-class potential, and has received breakthrough therapy designation from the National Medical Products Administration for first-line treatment of PD-L1 positive locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC [2] - The company is advancing clinical research for SSGJ-707 in other areas, including colorectal cancer and gynecological tumors, and has received FDA IND approval [2] - The company’s existing products, such as Tebentafusp, are expected to see growth due to successful negotiations for zero price reduction in 2024 and the addition of new indications, contributing to cash flow [2]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between 3SBio and Pfizer for SSGJ-707 marks a significant milestone in the Chinese biopharmaceutical industry, with a total upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments reaching up to $4.8 billion, indicating strong market confidence in the drug's potential [1][2]. Group 1: Licensing Agreement and Financial Implications - 3SBio has granted Pfizer global development, production, and commercialization rights for SSGJ-707 outside of mainland China while retaining rights for mainland China and granting Pfizer commercialization options [1]. - The agreement includes a non-refundable upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion based on development, regulatory approvals, and sales [1]. - Additionally, 3SBio will receive a tiered sales royalty based on product sales in the licensed regions [1]. Group 2: Clinical Development and Pipeline - SSGJ-707 has shown significant anti-tumor activity and good safety in Phase II clinical trials, positioning it as a potential best-in-class therapy [2]. - The drug is currently undergoing four Phase II clinical studies in China, targeting various cancers including PD-L1 positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and advanced gynecological tumors [2]. - Future catalysts for SSGJ-707 include Pfizer's overseas clinical progress, advancements in domestic Phase III trials, and data releases from major conferences like ASCO [2]. Group 3: Existing Product Portfolio and Growth Potential - 3SBio's existing core products are mature and leading in their respective segments, with expected stable growth [2]. - Key products include Terbinafine, which is the company's top-selling product, and Erythropoietin, which has new indications covered by insurance, opening up significant market potential [2]. - The company is also focusing on oral paclitaxel and other promising candidates in its pipeline, indicating a robust growth strategy [3]. Group 4: Financial Forecast and Market Valuation - The projected peak sales for SSGJ-707 are estimated at $8.5 billion, with a 10% sales royalty contributing to a market value of approximately 35 billion [4]. - The domestic peak sales are estimated at $5 billion, contributing an additional 15 billion in market value [4]. - The total target market capitalization is around 80 billion, with significant adjustments to net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting strong growth expectations [4].

707 重磅 BD 授权辉瑞，公司发展迈向新征 程 买入（维持） 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·药品及生物科技(HS) 三生制药（01530.HK） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,836 | 9,108 | 19,229 | 13,174 | 14,885 | | 同比(%) | 14.08 | 16.24 | 111.13 | (31.49) | 12.98 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,549 | 2,090 | 9,908 | 4,474 | 5,169 | | 同比(%) | (19.09) | 34.93 | 373.98 | (54.85) | 15.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.65 | 0.87 | 4.13 | 1.87 | 2.15 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.43 | 21.07 | 4.45 | 9.85 | 8.52 | [Table_T ...

三生制药（1530.HK）授权事件点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 授权辉瑞重磅交易落地，看好 707 具有 BIC 潜力 2025 年 05 月 22 日 ➢ SSGJ-707 授权辉瑞，首付款高达 12.5 亿美元。5 月 20 日，三生制药 （01530.HK）宣布，公司及附属子公司沈阳三生、三生国健与辉瑞签署协议，将 向辉瑞独家授予公司自主研发的突破性 PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体 SSGJ-707 在 全球（不包括中国内地）的开发、生产、商业化权利。公司及沈阳三生将保留 SSGJ- 707 在中国内地的开发、生产、商业化权利，并基于届时商定的财务条款授予辉 瑞对 SSGJ-707 在中国内地开展商业化的选择权。根据协议，三生制药将获得 12.5 亿美元不可退还且不可抵扣的首付款，以及最高可达 48 亿美元的开发、监 管批准和销售里程碑付款。公司还将根据授权地区的产品销售额收取两位数百分 比的梯度销售分成。此外，辉瑞将于协议生效日认购三生制药价值 1 亿美元的普 通股股份。 ➢ 看好 SSGJ-707 具有 BIC 潜力，创新管线迎来收获期。SSGJ-707 是三生制 药基 ...

➢ 投资建议：公司核心管线 BD 落地带来业绩弹性，我们上调公司盈利预测， 预计公司 2025-2027 年营业总收入分别为 182.44/127.52/147.31 亿元；归母 净利润分别为 85.75/34.13/41.02 亿元，对应 EPS 分别为 3.57/1.42/1.71 元， 维持"推荐"评级。 ➢ 风险提示：集采风险，市场竞争加剧风险，政策变化风险，产品研发不及预 期风险，仿制药风险。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 三生制药（1530.HK）授权事件点评 授权辉瑞重磅交易落地，看好 707 具有 BIC 潜力 2025 年 05 月 22 日 ➢ SSGJ-707 授权辉瑞，首付款高达 12.5 亿美元。5 月 20 日，三生制药 （01530.HK）宣布，公司及附属子公司沈阳三生、三生国健与辉瑞签署协议，将 向辉瑞独家授予公司自主研发的突破性 PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体 SSGJ-707 在 全球（不包括中国内地）的开发、生产、商业化权利。公司及沈阳三生将保留 SSGJ- 707 在中国内地的开发、生产、商业化权利，并基于届时商定的财务条款授予辉 瑞对 SSGJ ...

相关研究报告 医药生物/生物制品 三生制药（01530.HK） 2025 年 05 月 22 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/5/21 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 20.850 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 22.000/5.470 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 500.10 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 500.10 | | 总股本(亿股) | 23.99 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 23.99 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 134.69 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 三生制药 恒生指数 《核心品种持续发力，多款创新药进 入收获期—港股公司首次覆盖报告》 -2025.3.27 与辉瑞就 SSGJ-707 达成授权，创新价值弹性兑现 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 余汝意（分析师） | 余克清（分析师） | 刘艺（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | yukeqing@kysec.cn | ...

SSGJ-707 临床效果获国际认可，财务回报助力公司研发体系升级。SSGJ-707 是三生制药基于CLF2 专 利平台开发的靶向PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体，可同时抑制PD-1 和VEGF 双靶点。产品潜力大：1）II 期 临床阶段性分析数据显示，SSGJ-707 在NSCLC 患者的治疗上获得了优异的ORR 和DCR，无论单药还 是与化疗联用，均展示出显著的抗肿瘤活性和良好的安全性，具有best-in-class 的潜力。2）今年4 月获 CDE 突破性治疗药物认定，适应症为一线治疗PD-L1 表达阳性的局部晚期或转移性非小细胞肺癌。此 前，SSGJ-707 已获得FDA 的IND 批准。3）SSGJ-707 用于治疗结直肠癌、妇科肿瘤等领域的临床研究 也在推进中。此次合作证明SSGJ-707优异的临床效果已获得国际顶尖认可，同时验证了公司自主创新 研发体系的国际竞争力，显著提升了公司在肿瘤治疗领域的全球话语权，有力地推进了公司的国际化步 伐。此外，此次合作也将为三生制药带来强劲的财务回报，助力公司研发体系升级，推动公司更好地融 入全球生物医药产业价值链。 机构：国盛证券 研究员：张金洋/胡偌碧/张玉 ...