Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the anticipated rise in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, driven by tariff policies and inflationary pressures, with expectations of a year-on-year increase of 2.8% compared to 2.7% in June [1] - The article notes that the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise from 2.9% in June to 3.0% in July, indicating that rising goods inflation is no longer offset by easing service inflation [1][3] - It is mentioned that the effective tariff rate in the US is currently around 18.6%, the highest level since 1933, which may further impact consumer prices [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the upcoming CPI data may present a dual challenge for the Federal Reserve, as rising core commodity prices could influence future monetary policy decisions [4] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, up from 57% the previous month, indicating a shift in investor expectations [4]