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ATFX汇市前瞻:日央行新年首份决议 迟来的美国PCE数据
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-19 09:47
Group 1: Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan will hold its first interest rate decision of 2026 on January 22-23, with results expected between 11:00 and 13:00 [4][14] - Institutions predict that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current interest rates and not implement a rate hike, supported by the lack of media speculation ahead of the decision [4][14] - The core CPI for December is expected to be 2.4%, significantly lower than the previous value of 3%, indicating a low probability of a rate hike if expectations are met [4][14] Group 2: U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. PCE data for November is considered more significant than Japan's interest rate decision, although it is seen as lagging and less impactful due to its timing [5][15] - The core PCE year-on-year rate is forecasted to be 2.8%, consistent with the previous month, suggesting stable price levels in the U.S. from September to November [5][18] - The upcoming unemployment claims data is expected to rise to 212,000 from the previous 198,000, indicating an increase in jobless claims [8][19] Group 3: UK Economic Indicators - The UK unemployment rate for November is expected to be 5%, slightly lower than the previous 5.1%, indicating minimal change [9][21] - The core CPI for December is anticipated to remain at 3.2%, unchanged from the previous value, reflecting stable inflation [9][21] - Overall, the stability in unemployment and inflation suggests a low necessity for adjustments in the UK's monetary policy, with GBP/USD fluctuations more influenced by the U.S. dollar index and Federal Reserve actions [11][22]