从分项数据来看，通胀走势呈现明显分化。能源价格成为通胀降温的重要助力，1月能源价格指数环比下降1.5%，其中汽油价格环比下降3.2%，有效缓解了 整体物价上行压力；二手车和卡车、家居用品等商品价格下跌，进一步对冲了通胀压力。与此同时，机票、个人护理、医疗护理等服务类价格小幅走高，叠 加年初企业一次性提价及关税成本传导的影响，推动核心CPI环比小幅回升，显示通胀回落过程仍存在局部阻力。 CPI数据公布前，华尔街对美联储降息的预期相对保守，交易员预计年内合计降息幅度仅为58个基点，且对降息时点的判断分歧较大。数据落地后，市场预 期迅速升温，交易员对6月降息的概率预期飙升至80%以上，4月降息概率也升至30%，年内合计降息预期上调至63个基点，形成"2.5次"降息的普遍预判，即 大概率实现两次明确降息，同时有50%的可能性完成第三次降息。 不同华尔街机构对降息路径的解读仍存在差异，但均认可预期上调的合理性。高盛资产管理公司预计美联储今年将降息两次，首次降息或在6月，认为CPI 数据印证了通胀降温趋势，美联储"正常化"降息路径更加清晰；其全球投资级信贷主管则更为激进，预计年内将有四次降息。太平洋投资管理公司认为，通 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming inflation report is expected to show stable inflation pressures in the U.S., explaining the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts [1][2] - The November core PCE price index is projected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, indicating inflation levels remain significantly above the Fed's 2% target [1] - Despite some indicators suggesting a gradual cooling of inflation pressures, the core PCE typically exhibits less volatility compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] Inflation Indicators - The overall PCE is also expected to increase by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, indicating a sideways movement in inflation levels [1] - Citigroup economists noted that the core PCE inflation may show "sticky rather than accelerating" characteristics towards the end of 2025 [1] - The data disturbances from last year's government shutdown continue to affect the November readings, with seasonal adjustments likely to revise recent data in the coming months [1] Wage Growth and Service Sector - Signs of inflation easing are accumulating, with wage growth significantly slowing down, approaching pre-pandemic levels according to the Atlanta Fed's wage tracking indicator [1] - The cooling of wage growth complicates maintaining high service sector inflation, especially with expected declines in housing costs this year [1] Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve officials are weighing conflicting signals, as inflation has not worsened but the cooling rate is insufficient to clearly support recent interest rate cuts [2] - The upcoming PCE report will be an important reference for policymakers, but it is unlikely to lead to immediate policy changes [2] - Investors currently anticipate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming policy meeting [3]

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月19日，周五——2026日央行首次利率决议： 一众发达国家中，日本率先在2026年进行利率决议。 ▲ATFX图 1月22日~23日，日本央行进行2026年首次利率决议，结果将于本周五亚盘时段公布，大概率在11： 00~13：00之间。不同于美联储"定时定点"的公布利率决议，日本央行决议结果的公布只区分"上午"或 者"下午"，比较灵活和自由。 机构认为，日本央行将按兵不动，不会采取加息政策。我们持有相同的观点：不会加息。如果日本央行 加息的话，日本的媒体总能提前获得消息并大肆宣扬。距离日本央行决议结构公布仅剩一周时间，日本 媒体仍然"默不作声"，意味着本次决议看点不多，加息概率较低。 决议结果公布当日，日本关键数据——12月核心CPI年率，将提前发布。机构预期值2.4%，远远低于前 值3%。通胀是货币政策的"锚点"。一旦日本通胀失控下降，日本央行将没有勇气继续降息。如果机构 预期兑现，日本央行当日加息的概率将无限趋近于零。 周四——美国11月PCE物价指数： 美国的PCE数据，重要性远高于日本央行的利率决议。为什么PCE的排序在决议之后？因为本次PCE数 据是11月份的补充数据， ...

Group 1 - The core inflation indicator, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose by 0.2% month-on-month in September, matching August's data and meeting market expectations. Year-on-year growth unexpectedly fell to 2.8%, the lowest in three months, while the market had anticipated a continuous 2.9% increase [2][5]. - The report on inflation was delayed due to a government shutdown, which paused all data collection and economic reporting during that period. The next release date for the PCE data has not yet been rescheduled [5]. - Consumer spending showed signs of slowing down before the longest government shutdown in history began on October 1. Although recent data indicated strong sales performance during "Black Friday," consumer anxiety regarding the job market is rising, with spending primarily driven by wealthier households [6]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve officials consider the PCE price index as a primary tool for measuring inflation. They generally view core data as a superior indicator for assessing long-term inflation trends, despite also referencing overall data [5]. - A separate report indicated that consumer confidence rose for the first time in five months in early December, reflecting improved inflation expectations and a more optimistic outlook on personal financial situations [6].

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September in the U.S. increased compared to August, driven by rising energy and food prices [1] - The PPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-over-year increase rose from 2.60% in August to 2.7% in September, also meeting market forecasts [1] - Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.2%, but improved from a previous value of -0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, the core PPI rose by 2.6%, slightly lower than analysts' estimates of 2.7% [1] Price Movements - Wholesale commodity prices increased by 0.9%, with 60% of this increase attributed to rising gasoline prices [1] - Service prices remained unchanged after a decline in the previous month [1] - In the services sector, wholesale profit margins for machinery decreased, while those for food increased [1] - Costs for airline passenger services also saw an increase [1] Economic Context - The PPI data was released after a delay due to a government shutdown and provides critical insights for assessing the inflation trajectory in the U.S. [1] - The previous month's PPI had unexpectedly declined, primarily due to a drop in service category prices, but the September data indicates a return to typical growth patterns [1] - The PPI is a leading indicator for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is set to be released on December 5 [2] - Current inflation persistence contrasts with a weak labor market, leading to divided opinions within the Federal Reserve, making the PPI data significant for the upcoming monetary policy meeting in December [2]

Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics of China will announce the prices of important production materials in circulation as of mid-November, covering nine categories and 50 products [1] - The People's Bank of China is expected to roll over 900 billion MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) on November 25, with the specific amount depending on market demand [2] - The U.S. Labor Department will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, with expectations of a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 2.6% [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Commerce Department will announce the PCE price index for September, with expectations for the year-on-year rate to remain at 2.7% and a slight increase in the month-on-month rate to 0.3% [4] - The U.S. Commerce Department will also release the revised GDP for the third quarter, with expectations of a downward revision to 3.0% from the initial estimate of 3.8% [5] - The Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book on economic conditions, which will be closely monitored for its impact on related futures prices [6] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced the listing of platinum and palladium futures and options, with trading set to begin on November 27 and 28, 2025, respectively [7] - The National Bureau of Statistics and the China Logistics Purchasing Federation will release the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for November, with expectations of slight declines in both indices [8][9] - The 40th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting will take place on November 30, with attention on the outcomes and their potential impact on oil and related commodity futures prices [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown is threatening the quality of key inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release next month [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been instructed to recall some employees to prepare the September CPI report, but has been unable to collect new price information since the shutdown began on October 1 [1][2] - The labor-intensive nature of CPI data collection, which involves gathering information on approximately 80,000 items nationwide, is particularly impacted by the funding interruption [1] Data Collection Challenges - The BLS may resort to more estimations due to the inability to collect certain prices, as noted by former BLS officials [2] - If the shutdown continues, the BLS might adjust the weights of various categories based on longer-term price changes [2] - The collection rate of prices has declined, which poses further risks to data quality [3] Impact on Reports - Any issues with the October CPI report could affect the release of other reports, including the PCE price index, which relies on CPI data [3] - The September CPI report, initially scheduled for release, has been delayed to October 24 due to the need to recall staff for Social Security adjustments [2][3] Caution on Data Interpretation - Economists advise against overinterpreting any single data point, especially for the October report [4] - Analysts recommend a cautious approach to any anomalies in the October data [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, which saw its largest rise in three years, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% compared to 2.3% in June, and a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, far exceeding market expectations of 0.2% [1][3] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose sharply, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, the highest since February, and a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the highest since April 2022 [3][5] - The surge in PPI has led to a decline in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures down 0.36%, S&P 500 down 0.35%, and Dow futures down 0.29%, while the dollar index rose by 0.21% [3][5] Group 2 - A key driver of the PPI increase is the rise in service costs, which increased by 1.1% in July, the largest increase since March 2022, and wholesale and retail profit margins jumped by 2% due to mechanical equipment wholesale [3][5] - The article highlights that the increase in PPI has dampened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, as traders are now less confident in the likelihood of a rate cut due to the unexpected inflation data [5][6] - There is a lack of consensus among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for caution until inflation is fully under control, while others support immediate cuts [6][8]

Core Insights - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in May rose by 0.2%, slightly exceeding expectations, indicating persistent price pressures [1][5] - Consumer spending in the U.S. experienced its largest decline since the beginning of the year, reflecting growing uncertainty in the economic outlook due to government policies [1][8] Inflation Indicators - The year-on-year core PCE price index for May was 2.68%, above the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.5% [3] - The overall PCE price index for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, matching expectations but up from 2.1% previously [4] - SuperCore PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased slightly to 3.12% year-on-year from 3.07% [5] Consumer Spending and Income - Personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% in May, with a notable 6% drop in automobile purchases, reversing previous gains [11] - Personal income also declined, marking the largest drop since 2021, primarily due to reduced government transfer payments [12] - The savings rate decreased significantly to 4.5% of disposable income [14] Economic Outlook - Many economists anticipate a rise in inflation in the coming months as higher import tariffs are passed on to consumers [9] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated potential support for interest rate cuts if inflation remains moderate, with discussions around a possible cut as early as the next policy meeting [16] Market Reaction - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term decline, dropping 0.16% to 97.12 [18]

Core Points - The latest PCE price index data shows a surprising cooling in inflation, with March's year-on-year growth at 2.3%, the lowest since last fall, and core PCE at 2.6%, down from 2.8% [1][2][4] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating four 25 basis point cuts by the end of 2025, and a 65.5% probability of a rate cut in June [1][10] - The upcoming April non-farm payroll data is being closely monitored, as significant labor market disruptions due to tariff policies could increase the likelihood of a June rate cut [1][11] Inflation Data - March PCE price index year-on-year growth was 2.3%, slightly above the expected 2.2%, while the month-on-month change was 0%, matching expectations [2][4] - Core PCE year-on-year growth was 2.6%, in line with expectations, and month-on-month change was also 0%, marking the mildest increase in five years [2][4][5] - Consumer spending in March rose by 0.7%, the largest increase since early 2023, indicating proactive consumer behavior ahead of new tariffs [5][6] Market Reactions - Following the PCE data release, U.S. stock markets rebounded, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing higher, while the Nasdaq's decline was minimized [4] - Analysts suggest that weak economic data from Q1 may prompt the Fed to act more quickly on rate cuts, especially if trade agreements are reached soon [10][11] Fed's Position - Fed officials, including Waller, have indicated a shift towards a more dovish stance, particularly if high tariffs lead to significant layoffs [1][10] - The FOMC meeting scheduled for May 6-7 will be crucial in determining the Fed's next steps [9][10]