美国通胀持续降温，且9月消费支出"熄火"，这为美联储下周继续降息再添一重理由…… 美国商务部周五公布的一份关键通胀指标显示，9月份通胀率低于预期。这份因政府停摆而延迟的报告，或为美联储降息进一步亮起绿灯。 美联储官员将PCE物价指数作为衡量通胀的主要政策工具。虽然官员们会同时参考整体和核心数据，但他们普遍认为核心数据是衡量长期通胀趋势的更优指 标。 该报告因政府停摆而推迟了数周，停摆期间所有数据收集和经济报告均告暂停。 对于下一份PCE数据，经济分析局表示，下一次数据的发布时间尚未重新 安排。 消费者的回缩表明，在10月1日开始的史上最长的政府关门之前，美国经济的主要增长引擎就已经在放缓。虽然更多近期数据显示，由于购物者四处寻找折 扣，"黑色星期五"的销售表现稳健，但消费者对就业市场日益焦虑，且支出主要由较富裕的家庭推动。 周五公布的另一份数据显示，12月初消费者信心五个月来首次回升。密歇根大学指数的上升反映出，随着通胀预期改善，人们对个人财务前景更加乐观。 数据显示，剔除食品和能源项目的所谓核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数环比上涨0.2%，与8月数据持平，符合市场预期；同比增速则意外回落至2.8%， 创三 ...

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September in the U.S. increased compared to August, driven by rising energy and food prices [1] - The PPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-over-year increase rose from 2.60% in August to 2.7% in September, also meeting market forecasts [1] - Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.2%, but improved from a previous value of -0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, the core PPI rose by 2.6%, slightly lower than analysts' estimates of 2.7% [1] Price Movements - Wholesale commodity prices increased by 0.9%, with 60% of this increase attributed to rising gasoline prices [1] - Service prices remained unchanged after a decline in the previous month [1] - In the services sector, wholesale profit margins for machinery decreased, while those for food increased [1] - Costs for airline passenger services also saw an increase [1] Economic Context - The PPI data was released after a delay due to a government shutdown and provides critical insights for assessing the inflation trajectory in the U.S. [1] - The previous month's PPI had unexpectedly declined, primarily due to a drop in service category prices, but the September data indicates a return to typical growth patterns [1] - The PPI is a leading indicator for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is set to be released on December 5 [2] - Current inflation persistence contrasts with a weak labor market, leading to divided opinions within the Federal Reserve, making the PPI data significant for the upcoming monetary policy meeting in December [2]

Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics of China will announce the prices of important production materials in circulation as of mid-November, covering nine categories and 50 products [1] - The People's Bank of China is expected to roll over 900 billion MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) on November 25, with the specific amount depending on market demand [2] - The U.S. Labor Department will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, with expectations of a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 2.6% [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Commerce Department will announce the PCE price index for September, with expectations for the year-on-year rate to remain at 2.7% and a slight increase in the month-on-month rate to 0.3% [4] - The U.S. Commerce Department will also release the revised GDP for the third quarter, with expectations of a downward revision to 3.0% from the initial estimate of 3.8% [5] - The Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book on economic conditions, which will be closely monitored for its impact on related futures prices [6] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced the listing of platinum and palladium futures and options, with trading set to begin on November 27 and 28, 2025, respectively [7] - The National Bureau of Statistics and the China Logistics Purchasing Federation will release the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for November, with expectations of slight declines in both indices [8][9] - The 40th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting will take place on November 30, with attention on the outcomes and their potential impact on oil and related commodity futures prices [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown is threatening the quality of key inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release next month [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been instructed to recall some employees to prepare the September CPI report, but has been unable to collect new price information since the shutdown began on October 1 [1][2] - The labor-intensive nature of CPI data collection, which involves gathering information on approximately 80,000 items nationwide, is particularly impacted by the funding interruption [1] Data Collection Challenges - The BLS may resort to more estimations due to the inability to collect certain prices, as noted by former BLS officials [2] - If the shutdown continues, the BLS might adjust the weights of various categories based on longer-term price changes [2] - The collection rate of prices has declined, which poses further risks to data quality [3] Impact on Reports - Any issues with the October CPI report could affect the release of other reports, including the PCE price index, which relies on CPI data [3] - The September CPI report, initially scheduled for release, has been delayed to October 24 due to the need to recall staff for Social Security adjustments [2][3] Caution on Data Interpretation - Economists advise against overinterpreting any single data point, especially for the October report [4] - Analysts recommend a cautious approach to any anomalies in the October data [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, which saw its largest rise in three years, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% compared to 2.3% in June, and a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, far exceeding market expectations of 0.2% [1][3] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose sharply, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, the highest since February, and a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the highest since April 2022 [3][5] - The surge in PPI has led to a decline in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures down 0.36%, S&P 500 down 0.35%, and Dow futures down 0.29%, while the dollar index rose by 0.21% [3][5] Group 2 - A key driver of the PPI increase is the rise in service costs, which increased by 1.1% in July, the largest increase since March 2022, and wholesale and retail profit margins jumped by 2% due to mechanical equipment wholesale [3][5] - The article highlights that the increase in PPI has dampened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, as traders are now less confident in the likelihood of a rate cut due to the unexpected inflation data [5][6] - There is a lack of consensus among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for caution until inflation is fully under control, while others support immediate cuts [6][8]

Core Insights - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in May rose by 0.2%, slightly exceeding expectations, indicating persistent price pressures [1][5] - Consumer spending in the U.S. experienced its largest decline since the beginning of the year, reflecting growing uncertainty in the economic outlook due to government policies [1][8] Inflation Indicators - The year-on-year core PCE price index for May was 2.68%, above the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.5% [3] - The overall PCE price index for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, matching expectations but up from 2.1% previously [4] - SuperCore PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased slightly to 3.12% year-on-year from 3.07% [5] Consumer Spending and Income - Personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% in May, with a notable 6% drop in automobile purchases, reversing previous gains [11] - Personal income also declined, marking the largest drop since 2021, primarily due to reduced government transfer payments [12] - The savings rate decreased significantly to 4.5% of disposable income [14] Economic Outlook - Many economists anticipate a rise in inflation in the coming months as higher import tariffs are passed on to consumers [9] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated potential support for interest rate cuts if inflation remains moderate, with discussions around a possible cut as early as the next policy meeting [16] Market Reaction - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term decline, dropping 0.16% to 97.12 [18]

Core Points - The latest PCE price index data shows a surprising cooling in inflation, with March's year-on-year growth at 2.3%, the lowest since last fall, and core PCE at 2.6%, down from 2.8% [1][2][4] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating four 25 basis point cuts by the end of 2025, and a 65.5% probability of a rate cut in June [1][10] - The upcoming April non-farm payroll data is being closely monitored, as significant labor market disruptions due to tariff policies could increase the likelihood of a June rate cut [1][11] Inflation Data - March PCE price index year-on-year growth was 2.3%, slightly above the expected 2.2%, while the month-on-month change was 0%, matching expectations [2][4] - Core PCE year-on-year growth was 2.6%, in line with expectations, and month-on-month change was also 0%, marking the mildest increase in five years [2][4][5] - Consumer spending in March rose by 0.7%, the largest increase since early 2023, indicating proactive consumer behavior ahead of new tariffs [5][6] Market Reactions - Following the PCE data release, U.S. stock markets rebounded, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing higher, while the Nasdaq's decline was minimized [4] - Analysts suggest that weak economic data from Q1 may prompt the Fed to act more quickly on rate cuts, especially if trade agreements are reached soon [10][11] Fed's Position - Fed officials, including Waller, have indicated a shift towards a more dovish stance, particularly if high tariffs lead to significant layoffs [1][10] - The FOMC meeting scheduled for May 6-7 will be crucial in determining the Fed's next steps [9][10]