智通财经APP获悉，美国9月生产者价格指数(PPI)较8月有所上升，反映出能源和食品价格上涨。具体数 据显示，PPI环比上涨0.3%，与市场预期相符，同比涨幅则从8月的2.60%升至2.7%，同样符合市场预 期。其中，核心PPI(剔除食品和能源后)环比上升0.1%，虽低于市场预期的0.2%，但较前值-0.1%增加， 同比来看，9月核心PPI上涨2.6%，高于分析师预估的2.7%。 此次数据是因政府停摆而延迟发布后的首次更新，为评估美国通胀路径提供了关键依据。此前8月PPI曾 意外下降，主要受服务类别价格回落拖累，而9月数据已回归典型增长模式。 值得一提的是，该数据是美联储青睐的通胀衡量指标PCE物价指数的先行影响指标之一，并且PCE物价 指数会在12月5日公布。 当前通胀粘性与就业市场疲软形成矛盾，导致美联储内部意见分化，而此次PPI数据将为12月货币政策 会议提供重要决策参考之一。 批发商品价格上涨0.9%，其中60%的涨幅是由于汽油价格上涨所致。PPI报告显示，服务价格在上月下 降后保持不变。 在服务业方面，机械设备批发利润率下降，而食品批发利润率上升。航空旅客服务成本也有所上涨。 批发价格数据在9月份消 ...

11月24日 中国11月中旬流通领域重要生产资料市场价格公布 点评：11月24日9:30，国家统计局将公布11月中旬流通领域重要生产资料市场价格，包括黑色金属、有 色金属、化工产品、石油天然气、煤炭、非金属建材、农产品（主要用于加工）、农业生产资料、林产 品等9大类50种产品的价格。 11月25日 ?美国公布三季度GDP修正值 ?点评：北京时间11月26日21:30，美国商务部将公布三季度GDP修正值。预期美国三季度实际GDP年化 季率修正值为3.0%，初值为3.8%。 11月27日 美联储公布经济状况褐皮书 央行续作MLF 点评：11月25日有9000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）到期，预期央行将在11月25日9:25增量续作MLF，具 体操作金额将根据市场需求等情况确定。 美国公布9月PPI 点评：北京时间11月25日21:30，美国劳工部将公布9月生产者价格指数（PPI），之前该数据受美国政 府"停摆"影响推迟公布。预期美国9月PPI年率为2.7%，前值为2.6%；预期美国9月核心PPI年率为 2.7%，前值为2.8%。 11月26日 美国公布9月PCE物价指数 点评：北京时间11月26日20:30，美国商 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown is threatening the quality of key inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release next month [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been instructed to recall some employees to prepare the September CPI report, but has been unable to collect new price information since the shutdown began on October 1 [1][2] - The labor-intensive nature of CPI data collection, which involves gathering information on approximately 80,000 items nationwide, is particularly impacted by the funding interruption [1] Data Collection Challenges - The BLS may resort to more estimations due to the inability to collect certain prices, as noted by former BLS officials [2] - If the shutdown continues, the BLS might adjust the weights of various categories based on longer-term price changes [2] - The collection rate of prices has declined, which poses further risks to data quality [3] Impact on Reports - Any issues with the October CPI report could affect the release of other reports, including the PCE price index, which relies on CPI data [3] - The September CPI report, initially scheduled for release, has been delayed to October 24 due to the need to recall staff for Social Security adjustments [2][3] Caution on Data Interpretation - Economists advise against overinterpreting any single data point, especially for the October report [4] - Analysts recommend a cautious approach to any anomalies in the October data [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, which saw its largest rise in three years, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% compared to 2.3% in June, and a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, far exceeding market expectations of 0.2% [1][3] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose sharply, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, the highest since February, and a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the highest since April 2022 [3][5] - The surge in PPI has led to a decline in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures down 0.36%, S&P 500 down 0.35%, and Dow futures down 0.29%, while the dollar index rose by 0.21% [3][5] Group 2 - A key driver of the PPI increase is the rise in service costs, which increased by 1.1% in July, the largest increase since March 2022, and wholesale and retail profit margins jumped by 2% due to mechanical equipment wholesale [3][5] - The article highlights that the increase in PPI has dampened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, as traders are now less confident in the likelihood of a rate cut due to the unexpected inflation data [5][6] - There is a lack of consensus among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for caution until inflation is fully under control, while others support immediate cuts [6][8]

Core Insights - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in May rose by 0.2%, slightly exceeding expectations, indicating persistent price pressures [1][5] - Consumer spending in the U.S. experienced its largest decline since the beginning of the year, reflecting growing uncertainty in the economic outlook due to government policies [1][8] Inflation Indicators - The year-on-year core PCE price index for May was 2.68%, above the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.5% [3] - The overall PCE price index for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, matching expectations but up from 2.1% previously [4] - SuperCore PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased slightly to 3.12% year-on-year from 3.07% [5] Consumer Spending and Income - Personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% in May, with a notable 6% drop in automobile purchases, reversing previous gains [11] - Personal income also declined, marking the largest drop since 2021, primarily due to reduced government transfer payments [12] - The savings rate decreased significantly to 4.5% of disposable income [14] Economic Outlook - Many economists anticipate a rise in inflation in the coming months as higher import tariffs are passed on to consumers [9] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated potential support for interest rate cuts if inflation remains moderate, with discussions around a possible cut as early as the next policy meeting [16] Market Reaction - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term decline, dropping 0.16% to 97.12 [18]

Core Points - The latest PCE price index data shows a surprising cooling in inflation, with March's year-on-year growth at 2.3%, the lowest since last fall, and core PCE at 2.6%, down from 2.8% [1][2][4] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating four 25 basis point cuts by the end of 2025, and a 65.5% probability of a rate cut in June [1][10] - The upcoming April non-farm payroll data is being closely monitored, as significant labor market disruptions due to tariff policies could increase the likelihood of a June rate cut [1][11] Inflation Data - March PCE price index year-on-year growth was 2.3%, slightly above the expected 2.2%, while the month-on-month change was 0%, matching expectations [2][4] - Core PCE year-on-year growth was 2.6%, in line with expectations, and month-on-month change was also 0%, marking the mildest increase in five years [2][4][5] - Consumer spending in March rose by 0.7%, the largest increase since early 2023, indicating proactive consumer behavior ahead of new tariffs [5][6] Market Reactions - Following the PCE data release, U.S. stock markets rebounded, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing higher, while the Nasdaq's decline was minimized [4] - Analysts suggest that weak economic data from Q1 may prompt the Fed to act more quickly on rate cuts, especially if trade agreements are reached soon [10][11] Fed's Position - Fed officials, including Waller, have indicated a shift towards a more dovish stance, particularly if high tariffs lead to significant layoffs [1][10] - The FOMC meeting scheduled for May 6-7 will be crucial in determining the Fed's next steps [9][10]