Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, palm oil lacks continuous bullish drivers, caught in a long - short game between flood - induced production cuts and high inventory pressure. It is in a bottom - grinding phase, and investors can consider buying low and selling high. If there are obvious bullish drivers later and inventory starts to decline, palm oil may trend stronger, and investors can consider buying on dips [48]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Malaysia Palm Oil: Good Q4 Production, High Inventory and Slow De - stocking - In October, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory reached 246 million tons, a 4% month - on - month increase. Production rose 11% to 2.04 million tons, exports increased 19% to 1.69 million tons, and apparent consumption dropped to 280,000 tons [3]. - Forecasts suggest an 11 - month cumulative production of about 18.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 650,000 tons. The probability of a weak La Nina phenomenon in the next three months is 55%, and December production may continue to decline. High inventory may last until Q1 2026 [4]. - As of December 3, CPO spot price was 4,100 ringgit/ton, refined palm oil dropped to around $1,000 and then rose to $1,040. The price decline space is limited, and it may fluctuate slightly upward [4]. 2. Indonesia Palm Oil: Limited Q4 Incremental Space, Persistently Low Inventory - As of September, Indonesia's palm oil production was about 43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 4.4 million tons. GAPKI raised the annual production forecast by 8 - 10%. The confiscation of plantations and heavy rain may limit Q4 production growth [17]. - Fruit bunch and CPO tender prices are slightly stronger. From January to September, exports increased 13% year - on - year. The overall supply - demand is increasing, and inventory remains low [18]. - In 2026, unless Q4 production is high and carry - over inventory reaches over 3 million tons, inventory will remain low until Q1 [18]. 3. Positive Expectations for Indonesia's Biodiesel Policy, Incremental Purchases in Consumption Areas - Indonesia implemented the B40 policy in March, and as of November 10, biodiesel consumption reached 12.25 billion liters, with a target completion rate of nearly 80%. The B50 policy is planned for next year, but implementation is uncertain [26][27]. - If B50 is implemented in H2 2026, it may require 17.8 billion liters of biodiesel, equivalent to a CPO consumption increase of about 2 million tons. There may be a consumption increase in biodiesel next year [28]. - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, India increased soybean oil imports and reduced palm oil imports. In the 2025/26 fiscal year, palm oil imports are expected to increase from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons, which is bullish for prices [29][30].