1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for palm oil is "Volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the current decline in palm oil prices depends on four factors: whether the October MPOB data meets market expectations, the improvement of India's palm oil procurement, the production prospects in the producing areas from November to December, and the possibility of the implementation of biofuel policies in Indonesia and the United States [3] - The logic supporting the medium - to long - term rise of palm oil still exists, but short - term supply pressure is prominent. The upside space for the 01 contract is limited, while the 05 contract may present long - position opportunities and P2601 - P2605 reverse spread opportunities [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 10 - Month Palm Oil Price Decline Review 1.1 The Beginning of the Current Decline: Unexpected Inventory Accumulation of Malaysian Palm Oil in September - After the double - festival holiday in October, the palm oil price showed a strong rebound trend, but the MPOB September report on October 10th showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory reached 2360000 tons, far exceeding market expectations and hitting a 21 - month high [2][13] - In terms of production, the decline in production in the Malay Peninsula was offset by the increase in production in Sabah and Sarawak. In terms of exports, affected by the export tax adjustment in Indonesia and Argentina, and the substitution of soybean oil, Malaysia's overall export situation was not ideal. In terms of apparent demand, it is speculated that the large - scale inventory accumulation may be due to increased smuggling from Indonesia to Malaysia [14][15] 1.2 The Core of the Current Decline: Weaker - than - expected Reality and the Weakening of Strong Future Expectations - The continuous negative data of Malaysian palm oil and the lack of confidence in future strong expectations accelerated the decline. The MPOA's forecast of a more than 10% increase in production from October 1 - 20 far exceeded market expectations, and the decline in export data further increased the inventory pressure [18][22] - Indonesian data and policies also exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the market. Although the review of illegal plantations in Indonesia may affect future production, the current production data has not shown a negative impact. The market is also divided on the implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy [25][27] Palm Oil Price Outlook for the Future: Rebound Imminent or Not Yet at the Bottom? Short - Term Outlook - Key factors include the difference between the MPOB data and market expectations and whether November data shows an increasing production trend. If the data meets expectations, prices may stop falling and stabilize; if it is better than expected, there may be a limited rebound; if it is worse than expected, prices may continue to fall [32] - In terms of supply, it is expected that the production of Malaysian palm oil in November will decline slightly following normal seasonal changes. In terms of demand, India and Pakistan's restocking demand and Indonesia's B40 implementation progress need to be focused on [32][38][41] Long - Term Outlook - The core drivers are Indonesia's B50 policy and the US biofuel policy. If Indonesia's B50 policy is implemented in the second half of 2026, the increase in palm oil demand is expected to be 200000 - 300000 tons. Whether the upside space can be opened depends on the balance between production and biofuel demand [46][50] Investment Strategies and Suggestions - Short - term: Pay attention to the MPOB report and November high - frequency data. After the bearish sentiment in the market subsides, focus on the opportunity of a small - scale rebound, but the space is expected to be limited. If the data is more bearish than expected, consider short - selling opportunities for the 01 contract, with a support level of 8200 yuan [51] - Medium - to long - term: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas, restocking in the consuming areas, and biofuel policies of relevant countries. Consider long - position opportunities for the 05 contract during the Ramadan trading period from the end of the fourth quarter to the beginning of the first quarter of next year [51]

Core Insights - The Ivorian government is committed to revitalizing the palm oil industry as a key driver of economic development [1] - A total investment of 245.9 billion CFA francs (approximately 43 million USD) is planned over the next decade to develop the local palm oil sector [1] - The plan is supported by the Rubber-Palm Committee and will be implemented by the National Office for Technical Research and Development (BNETD) [1] Industry Overview - Côte d'Ivoire has a palm tree plantation area of 350,000 hectares and an annual production of 500,000 tons of crude palm oil [1] - The country is the second-largest producer of palm oil in Africa and the seventh-largest globally [1] Challenges Faced - The palm oil industry is facing significant challenges, including aging plantations, low yields in rural areas, land degradation, and limited access to funding [1] - There is increasing international market demand for sustainability and traceability, alongside growing competition from Asian oil products [1] Strategic Response - To address these challenges, the Ivorian government has developed a future strategy for the palm oil industry, with over 60% of the investment allocated for the restoration or replanting of rural plantations [1]

Group 1 - Indonesia is negotiating with the United States for a waiver on a 19% tariff on palm oil, cocoa, and nickel [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors, with geopolitical risks, trade policies, and economic data all playing significant roles. Different commodities show various trends due to their unique supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic environments [2][3]. - For most commodities, short - term price movements are characterized by oscillations, affected by both positive and negative factors. Some commodities may experience short - term price increases or decreases based on specific events and data [4][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Overseas: The US Senate passed the "Big Beautiful Act" with a narrow margin, and it awaits final approval in the House. Trump may reach a trade agreement with India but is skeptical about Japan, hinting at a potential increase in tariffs on Japanese imports to 30% - 35% from 24%. The US job openings in May reached a new high since November last year, and Powell suggested a "wait - and - see" approach [2]. - Domestic: President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, emphasizing the promotion of a unified market and the development of the marine economy. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June rebounded to 50.4, returning to the expansion range. Stocks and bonds both rose, but the A - share market lacked a clear main line [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.28% to $3349.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.20% to $36.25 per ounce. Trade concerns, potential Fed rate cuts, and Middle - East geopolitical risks drove safe - haven funds into the precious metals market. However, the short - term sustainability of the price rebound is uncertain [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper showed an upward trend. The Shanghai copper main contract broke through, and the London copper price approached the $10,000 mark. The US manufacturing was in a downturn with inflation expectations rising. Globally, the shortage of concentrates and low inventory levels, along with expanding application areas, are expected to drive copper prices into a short - term oscillatory upward trend [6][7]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum showed a positive trend. The weakening US dollar index and low warehouse receipts supported the price. However, the market should also pay attention to the impact of the Senate's passage of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill and the upcoming July 9 trade tariff suspension deadline [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina futures showed a preference for oscillatory movement. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to decline, and the spot market had limited supply increments. The short - term price is expected to maintain a preference for oscillatory movement [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc declined slightly. Overseas refineries resumed production, and the supply disturbance weakened. Although downstream buying improved, the short - term fundamentals remained weak, and the price returned to a weakening trend [12][13]. Lead - The price of lead declined slightly. The supply of primary and recycled lead refineries is expected to recover in July, while consumption has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly [14][15]. Tin - The price of tin showed a compensatory movement. The fundamentals were not significantly changed, with low trading volume. The supply and demand were both weak, and the high - price tin faced pressure [16]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon faced resistance in its rebound. It was in the off - season with weakening demand. The supply side was generally weak, and the demand side in the photovoltaic industry was also lackluster. The short - term price is expected to enter a weak adjustment phase [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate declined. The market sentiment cooled down, and the downstream replenishment ended. Although the cathode production in July may exceed expectations, the supply also increased, and high inventory may drag down the price [19][20]. Nickel - The price of nickel oscillated. The US economic data was mixed, and the cost side showed signs of loosening. The short - term fundamentals had no improvement, and the price oscillated [21][22]. Crude Oil - The price of crude oil oscillated. Geopolitical risks and industry logic were intertwined. Although the geopolitical heat decreased, the conflict was not completely over, and the supply side maintained a high - growth expectation [23]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures price rebounded slightly. The market was affected by the news of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply side's production was stable at a low level, and the demand side was weak due to high - temperature weather. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [24][25]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price oscillated and adjusted. The port inventory decreased slightly, but the supply pressure remained due to high overseas shipments. The demand for iron ore had some resilience, but the production of molten iron was expected to decline. The short - term price is expected to oscillate under pressure [26]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. The US soybean crushing volume in May was 6.11 million tons, and the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks was normal. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather changes, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - US trade progress [27][28]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price may oscillate. The production of Malaysian palm oil in June slowed down, and the export demand in Indonesia increased in May. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [29][30].

Group 1 - Malaysia views China as a reliable friend and a key economic and strategic partner, especially in the context of challenges to multilateralism [1] - China has been Malaysia's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with bilateral trade expected to reach $212 billion in 2024, a nearly thousand-fold increase since diplomatic relations were established in 1974 [1] - Palm oil and related products account for over half of Malaysia's exports to China, highlighting the significance of this commodity in bilateral trade [1] Group 2 - There is a growing focus on cooperation in modern agriculture, with Malaysia looking to enhance collaboration with China in technology transfer, market expansion, and brand development [2] - The development of the New Land-Sea Corridor has improved logistics and trade efficiency between China and Malaysia, facilitating faster access for Malaysian palm oil to the Chinese market [2] - Malaysia expresses confidence in China's economic resilience and innovation, particularly in digital economy, green transformation, and modern agriculture [2] Group 3 - Malaysia aims to promote sustainable and inclusive growth during its tenure as the ASEAN chair in 2025, focusing on cooperation with China in green agriculture, palm oil certification, and carbon labeling [2][3] - The collaboration in palm oil is seen as a bridge to advance regional green economy and achieve sustainable development goals [3]