Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Five Mines Futures Agricultural Products Morning Report on August 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soybean/M粕 Core View - The cost of imported soybeans is on a stable and slightly rising trend, while the domestic soybean meal market is in a season of oversupply. It is expected that the spot market may start to destock in September. The soybean meal market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors [3][5] Key Information - On Wednesday night, the U.S. soybeans closed slightly higher in a narrow - range oscillation. The market is still focused on the PROFARMER tour survey. The U.S. Soybean Association called on Trump to reach an agreement with China as soon as possible. The Brazilian soybean premium is stable, and the cost of imported soybeans remains unchanged for the time being. The domestic soybean meal spot basis is stable, with the East China region reporting 01 - 170 yuan/ton. The soybean meal trading is weak, but the pick - up is good. The downstream inventory days decreased slightly by 0.02 days to 8.35 days. According to MYSTEEL statistics, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and it is expected to crush 2.4043 million tons this week [3] - In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is expected to be low. In Brazil, the premium has been oscillating at a high level recently. Overall, the USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the U.S. soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, which is a short - term positive for CBOT soybeans. Currently, due to the low valuation of U.S. soybeans, the positive EPA policy, and the fact that soybeans are solely supplied by Brazil from September to January, the cost of imported soybeans maintains a stable and slightly rising trend. However, the continuous upward momentum of the cost of imported soybeans needs to be tested under the background of global protein raw material oversupply [3] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range. At the high end, pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure. Focus on the progress of Sino - U.S. tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5] Group 3: Oils Core View - The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with a rising expectation in the fourth quarter. However, the upward space is limited by multiple factors [7][9] Key Information - According to the Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the 366,482 tons exported in the same period last month. It is expected that the exports in the first 15 days will increase by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month, and the first 20 days will increase by 13.61% - 17.5%. SPPOMA data shows that from August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [7] - The Malaysian Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities (KPK) stated that the direct impact of U.S. market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be relatively limited, as it is difficult to find substitutes in the global market [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said that due to the slowdown in supply and the decrease in soybean supply caused by biodiesel demand, the palm oil price is expected to remain above 4,300 ringgit per ton in the short - term [7] - On Wednesday night, the three major domestic oils oscillated, affected by the weak sentiment of the overall commodity market. The stable demand from importing countries, low inventories in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia provide continuous positive factors. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] Trading Strategy - The oil price is expected to oscillate strongly. If the importing countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong price. There is a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the high valuation and multiple suppressing factors limit the upward space [9] Group 4: Sugar Core View - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,676 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan or 0.26% increase from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,940 - 6,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,050 - 6,130 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 264 yuan/ton [11] - According to the latest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center, the average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region of Brazil in July was 81.3 tons, a 5.6% year - on - year decrease compared to 86.1 tons per hectare in the same period in 2024 [11] Trading Strategy - The international raw sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increased domestic imports and high import profits [12] Group 5: Cotton Core View - The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price slightly decreased. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 14,055 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan or 0.32% decrease from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price was 15,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 945 yuan/ton [14] - India has suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30, which may benefit U.S. cotton growers [14] Trading Strategy - The USDA report is more positive than expected, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the U.S. for 90 days are positive for the domestic cotton price. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Group 6: Eggs Core View - The egg price in the spot market is mostly stable with a few declines, and the futures market may fluctuate in the short - term, with short - selling opportunities after a rebound in the medium - term [17][18] Key Information - The national egg price is mostly stable with a few declines. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.1 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the willingness of second - and third - tier dealers to stock up and build inventories is low. The overall circulation speed is slow. It is expected that the egg price will mostly decline and a few will remain stable today [17] Trading Strategy - The supply of newly - laid hens continues to increase, and the number of culled chickens is limited, resulting in a large supply. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures market has a premium. The short - term futures market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [18] Group 7: Pigs Core View - The pig price may oscillate in a range, with short - term low - buying opportunities and attention to the upper - limit pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21] Key Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally increased. The average price in Henan increased 0.03 yuan to 13.8 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan increased 0.1 yuan to 13.57 yuan/kg. After the price increase, the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced goods decreased, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and some farmers plan to increase the number of pigs for sale. It is expected that the pig price will be stable with some declines and a few slight increases today [20] Trading Strategy - The spot price has temporarily stabilized due to previous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment. The futures market has risen and then fallen. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. In the context of expected increases in both supply and demand, the fat - to - standard pig price difference and whether there will be pig hoarding are crucial. The market may oscillate in a range. In the short - term, focus on low - buying opportunities; in the medium - term, pay attention to the upper - limit pressure; and use a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish rating on high - frequency exports of the oil and fat industry, indicating "short - term bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, factors such as the unexpected U.S. biodiesel policy draft, limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, low inventories of vegetable oils in India for rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of oils and fats. From July to September, if demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong and volatile price quotation. There may be an upward price expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level expectation of increased oil and fat production, relatively high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and demand adjustments in major importing countries. The market is expected to be volatile [11][12][13] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Palm oil rose slightly at the beginning of the week following the optimistic sentiment in commodities, but it was difficult to continue the upward trend due to the record - high net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils and fats and the bearish high - frequency export and production data. It fell at the end of the week following the overall decline in commodities. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days were expected to decline by 9.2% - 15.22% month - on - month, and the production in the first 20 days of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. The lower - than - expected exports may imply increased production in Indonesia or weak demand in consuming areas. The narrative of increased palm oil production and weak demand still suppresses the market. Although there are medium - term positive factors such as the expected B50 policy in Indonesia and limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, short - term data deviations bring correction pressure to the market. The price of foreign - traded rapeseed entered a volatile phase after falling from a high level, and the contact between China and Australia on rapeseed purchases suppressed the high valuation of rapeseed oil [11] - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA July monthly report estimated that the U.S. will increase about 1.5 million tons of industrial demand for soybean oil in the 2025/2026 season, which will be supplemented by a decline in soybean oil exports and increased压榨 output. The estimated import of rapeseed oil is only expected to increase by 200,000 tons year - on - year. The shipment volume of Canadian rapeseed is still high, and exports are at a seasonally high level, with signs of inventory accumulation in commercial inventories. The contact between China and Australia on rapeseed trade also suppresses the rapeseed price. The foreign - traded rapeseed price has been mainly volatile this week. The AAFC significantly increased the production of old - crop rapeseed based on large export data, but the new - crop rapeseed is facing a production decline, which supports the rapeseed price. India purchased a large amount of vegetable oils in June, possibly starting a replenishment process, which will support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11] - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: The trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak this week, and the spot basis was at a low level. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient supply. Among them, the rapeseed oil inventory is 300,000 tons higher than last year, the palm oil inventory is about 100,000 tons higher than last year, and the soybean oil inventory is the same as last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will increase with the arrival of soybeans, and the export willingness of palm oil will also increase after production rises. The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, but the high price difference and weak consumption lead to slow inventory reduction. It is difficult to see a downward trend in the total domestic inventory of oils and fats for now [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to be volatile. The core driving logic is the same as the core viewpoints mentioned above. There is no specific recommendation for arbitrage trading [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including the FOB - futures price difference of Malaysian palm oil, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil futures, and the basis of 09 contracts of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23][25] 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the monthly production and export of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia. It also includes charts of the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly import of rapeseed, and monthly import of rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the supply situation of different oils and fats [28][29][30][31] - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: The report presents charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which are used to analyze the impact of weather on palm oil production [33][35] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Situation**: The report shows charts of the total inventory of domestic three major oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, which are used to analyze the profit and inventory situation of different oils and fats [41][44][46][47][49] 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, which are used to analyze the cost of Malaysian palm oil [51][52] - **Cost of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed**: The report shows charts of the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China, which are used to analyze the cost of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [55] 3.6 Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: The report shows charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, which are used to analyze the trading demand for different oils and fats [58] - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report shows charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which are used to analyze the profit situation of biodiesel [60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. The overall situation is complex, with both upward and downward pressures. The domestic bean meal market is also multi - faceted, with a combination of low valuation, high short - term supply, and cost support [2][4]. - The palm oil market shows mixed trends in production, exports, and inventory. The overall situation of the global vegetable oil market is also complex, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [6][8]. - The sugar market is expected to face a downward trend in the future due to the increase in import supply [11]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [14]. - The egg market's price is expected to show a short - term stable and slightly upward trend, with a more complex medium - term situation [18]. - The pig market is expected to have limited downward space in the short term but faces supply and hedging pressures in the medium term [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: U.S. soybeans are under pressure due to good weather and potential trade - war impacts on exports, but are supported by low valuation, good old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies. Domestic bean meal has high mill operation rates, good sales, and a tendency to accumulate inventory. The import cost of soybeans is temporarily stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the multi - faceted situation of the domestic bean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4]. Vegetable Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 10 days of June are expected to increase, but overall exports, production, and inventory show different trends. The total inventory of the three major domestic vegetable oils is increasing. The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production decreased slightly in June, but exports were lower than expected, and inventory increased slightly. The EPA policy is positive for the vegetable oil market, but there are still negative factors [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The vegetable oil market is expected to be volatile. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, the origin may maintain stable inventory. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors such as high - level annual production expectations and weak edible demand in major demand countries [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded on Thursday. The predicted sugar production and cane crushing volume in the second half of June in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year due to rainfall [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: As the import profit window is currently at its best in the past five years, the supply of imported sugar is likely to increase in the second half of the year, and the sugar price is expected to continue to decline [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose slightly on Thursday. Trump postponed the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" to August 1 [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the current basis is not conducive to downstream consumption, and the potential increase in import quotas is a negative factor. The short - term cotton price is expected to be volatile, waiting for new driving factors [14]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable on the previous day, with a slight increase in the average price of the main production areas. The supply is stable, the downstream digestion speed is slightly faster, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the egg price will mostly rise today [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the spot price has limited upward and downward space, and the peak - season contracts are expected to be relatively strong. In the medium term, as the spot price increase is gradually realized, the focus will return to supply and the relatively large premium of the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations in the short term, and wait for a rebound to short in the medium - term post - festival contracts [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - falling on the previous day. The supply in the northern market is relatively abundant, and the price may fall, while the southern market may mostly maintain stable prices. It is expected that the pig price will be stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot price has rebounded significantly, and the short - term downward space of the futures price is limited. However, in the medium term, attention should be paid to supply postponement and hedging pressure [21].