1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oilseeds**: The release of the US biodiesel policy and the firmness of Brazilian premiums support the cost of soybean imports in China. However, the increase in reserve releases has cooled the bullish sentiment for soybeans. For example, the 05 contract of soybeans is expected to be weak in the short - term, while the 09 contract of soybeans and soybean meal can be considered for long - position layout [3][5][12]. - **Oils**: The continuous tension in the Middle East situation, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and the restart of Indonesia's B50 policy have driven up the prices of oils. Palm oil can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil may continue to fluctuate widely [3][4]. - **Feed**: The supply of feed grains such as corn and corn starch is under pressure in the short - term, but the low channel inventory limits the decline space. The price of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate and bottom out, waiting for a stable upward opportunity [6][7]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The short - term supply - demand pattern of pigs is difficult to change fundamentally, and the far - month futures contracts of pigs may have a larger premium. The supply pressure of eggs has been alleviated to some extent, and the far - month peak - season contracts have a large premium over the current off - season spot [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: The 05 contract of soybeans is expected to be weak due to increased reserve releases. The 09 contract of soybeans and soybean meal can be considered for long - position layout due to cost - end support [12]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is expected to be bullish, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil may fluctuate widely. The 05 contract of palm oil can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude, and the 09 contract of soybean oil can be considered for long - position after stabilization [12]. - **Protein**: The 09 contract of soybean meal is expected to be stable, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate and adjust [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch may adjust in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The 05 contract of pigs and eggs may continue to search for the bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 5 - 9 spread of corn, it is recommended to short at high prices, and for the 5 - 7 spread of pigs, it is recommended to hold the reverse arbitrage [13][14]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For most inter - commodity spreads, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 soybean oil - palm oil, 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and 05 rapeseed oil - palm oil spreads, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 soybean oil - meal ratio and 05 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to take a bullish approach [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, which can be used as a reference for spot - futures operations [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, which helps to understand the cost - end situation of oils and oilseeds [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as the operating rates of related processing plants [19][20]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, which is helpful for analyzing the cost of feed grains [20]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn and corn starch, which can reflect the supply - demand situation of the feed market [21]. 3.2.3 Livestock and Poultry - **Daily Data**: It shows the spot prices and price changes of pigs and eggs in different regions, which can reflect the short - term market situation [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: It provides the key data of pigs and eggs, such as the price, cost, profit, slaughter volume, and inventory of pigs, as well as the supply, demand, and profit data of eggs [23][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides a series of charts to track the fundamentals of the livestock and poultry, oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, including the price, inventory, production, and consumption data of various varieties, which helps to visually understand the market situation [25][26][28]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the option - related data of feed, livestock, and oils, such as the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, historical volatility, option trading volume, and open interest, which can be used as a reference for option trading [96][98][100]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the warehouse receipt data of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, which can reflect the supply - demand situation in the physical market [106][108][110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Supply**: Soybean oil supply is tight, rapeseed oil supply tightness is easing, and palm oil supply in the producing areas is tight. The reasons include continuous production cuts in Malaysia, a potential shortage of imported soybeans from February to March, a significant reduction in the import cost of Canadian rapeseed after March 1st due to a 15% tax rate, and the expected entry of Australian seeds into commercial pressing [3]. - **Demand**: Demand is neutral. The stocking rhythms in India and China have significantly boosted the demand for oils and fats, but the substitution between varieties needs to be considered. The news that Indonesia postponed B50 has a negative impact on the far - month palm oil prices, but it may still be implemented this year. The overall quota of US biodiesel is expected to remain at the previous draft level or lower, and the cancellation of the penalty on imported feedstocks is more beneficial to the demand for Canadian rapeseed products. Attention should be paid to the implementation in February and March [3]. - **Inventory**: For palm oil, it is advisable to wait and see. Malaysia has a high palm oil inventory, while Indonesia's inventory is low. Overall, the total inventory in the producing areas is expected to reach an inflection point during the production - cut season. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing and will be tight in the first quarter. Rapeseed oil inventory is low due to supply shortages and is waiting for supply replenishment [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: The situation is bullish. International geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn may cause a rebound in oil and fat prices from the biodiesel end. The US biodiesel policy is tentatively scheduled to be released in early March, and there are also reports that the court requires the EPA to release the final proposal in February, which is still a potential risk. Indonesia's B50 may be postponed, and funds may be the biggest problem. Attention should be paid to the price difference between crude oil and palm oil [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. The rise last week was driven by fundamental support, policy promotion, and the linkage with crude oil prices. However, the short - term increase was large, and it is currently facing the previous high point with significant resistance. Coupled with the sharp decline in gold and silver, which has tightened commodity liquidity, and the subsequent policy disturbances related to oils and fats, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, wait and see. For arbitrage, conduct P5 - 9 positive spreads and OI5 - 9 positive spreads. Risks to be concerned about include rising crude oil prices, extreme weather impacts, unexpected production cuts in Malaysia, and the release of RVO [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, macro and policy factors of oils and fats, and provides corresponding investment viewpoints and trading strategies [3]. 3.2 Market Review - Presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences between different contracts and varieties [5][9][14][15][16]. 3.3 Oils and Fats Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: Shows the precipitation and temperature forecasts and historical data in Southeast Asia [19][21][24]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply - Demand**: Displays the production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory of Indonesian palm oil [33][37][38]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand**: Presents the production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil [39][44]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference**: Shows India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [45][50]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Displays China's palm oil import volume, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit [51][53][55]. - **Weather and Soybean Production Situation**: Presents the temperature and precipitation distribution in the soybean - producing areas of Argentina and Brazil, as well as the soybean planting progress and harvesting rate [63][66][72]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Shows the export volume and export sales volume of US soybeans, as well as the monthly export volume and CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans [77][81]. - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Displays China's soybean arrival volume, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory [92]. - **Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: Shows the FOB price, export volume, and import profit of rapeseed, as well as the expected arrival volume of domestic rapeseed and the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil [93][95]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Displays China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货 volume, and inventory [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Long - term outlook for the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, mainly due to the expectation of Indonesia implementing B50 [5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Soybean oil**: South American Brazil's main producing areas have had good rainfall recently, beneficial for the growth of sown soybeans. Argentina's core producing areas may have less or average rainfall in the next two weeks, which requires close attention [6]. - **Palm oil**: MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 4.64% month - on - month. With weak export data in December, its inventory in December is expected to exceed 3 million tons. Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations this year, and concerns about management and the B50 plan may push up palm oil prices in the long run [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The market is watching whether the issues of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil tariffs can be resolved when the Canadian Prime Minister visits China next week [6]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - **Unilateral trading**: For palm oil 05, the support level is recommended to be around 8,200 - 8,300. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Outlook**: Key factors to watch include national biodiesel policies, Southeast Asian palm oil production and exports, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices [10]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - Last week, the oils and fats market was oscillating and strengthening, mainly due to market speculation about Indonesia's B50 policy and the expectation of an increase in Indonesia's palm oil export tax [22]. - For the price differences between varieties: - The soybean - palm oil price difference is fluctuating widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The rapeseed - palm oil price difference is oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The rapeseed - soybean oil price difference is fluctuating widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: The November MPOB report shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production in November decreased by 5.30% to 1.9355 million tons, consumption increased by 31.84% to 0.3718 million tons, exports decreased by 28.13% to 1.2128 million tons, and the inventory at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.8354 million tons, which was bearish for palm oil prices [44]. - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: Data shows the trends of China's soybean imports, soybean oil imports, port inventories, and soybean crushing volumes over the years [46][47][48]. - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: Data shows the trends of China's rapeseed imports, rapeseed oil imports, port inventories, and rapeseed crushing volumes over the years [55][57][58]. - **Domestic palm oil**: Data shows the trends of China's palm oil imports over the years [65][67]. 3.5 Demand Side - Data shows the trading volumes of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the total trading volume of the three major oils and fats over the years [70][74][76]. 3.6 Inventory - As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.081 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons (0.73%) from the previous week and an increase of 0.1485 million tons (15.92%) year - on - year. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 0.7338 million tons, a decrease of 0.0003 million tons (0.04%) from the previous week and an increase of 0.2321 million tons (46.26%) year - on - year [82]. - As of January 2, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal main oil mills was 0.003 million tons, a decrease of 0.001 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 0.267 million tons, a decrease of 0.014 million tons from the previous week; the total rapeseed oil inventory in major national regions was 0.27 million tons, a decrease of 0.015 million tons from the previous week [86]. 3.7 Futures Import Profit - As of January 9, 2026, the futures import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the February shipment was - 121 yuan/ton [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, palm oil lacks continuous bullish drivers, caught in a long - short game between flood - induced production cuts and high inventory pressure. It is in a bottom - grinding phase, and investors can consider buying low and selling high. If there are obvious bullish drivers later and inventory starts to decline, palm oil may trend stronger, and investors can consider buying on dips [48]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Malaysia Palm Oil: Good Q4 Production, High Inventory and Slow De - stocking - In October, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory reached 246 million tons, a 4% month - on - month increase. Production rose 11% to 2.04 million tons, exports increased 19% to 1.69 million tons, and apparent consumption dropped to 280,000 tons [3]. - Forecasts suggest an 11 - month cumulative production of about 18.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 650,000 tons. The probability of a weak La Nina phenomenon in the next three months is 55%, and December production may continue to decline. High inventory may last until Q1 2026 [4]. - As of December 3, CPO spot price was 4,100 ringgit/ton, refined palm oil dropped to around $1,000 and then rose to $1,040. The price decline space is limited, and it may fluctuate slightly upward [4]. 2. Indonesia Palm Oil: Limited Q4 Incremental Space, Persistently Low Inventory - As of September, Indonesia's palm oil production was about 43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 4.4 million tons. GAPKI raised the annual production forecast by 8 - 10%. The confiscation of plantations and heavy rain may limit Q4 production growth [17]. - Fruit bunch and CPO tender prices are slightly stronger. From January to September, exports increased 13% year - on - year. The overall supply - demand is increasing, and inventory remains low [18]. - In 2026, unless Q4 production is high and carry - over inventory reaches over 3 million tons, inventory will remain low until Q1 [18]. 3. Positive Expectations for Indonesia's Biodiesel Policy, Incremental Purchases in Consumption Areas - Indonesia implemented the B40 policy in March, and as of November 10, biodiesel consumption reached 12.25 billion liters, with a target completion rate of nearly 80%. The B50 policy is planned for next year, but implementation is uncertain [26][27]. - If B50 is implemented in H2 2026, it may require 17.8 billion liters of biodiesel, equivalent to a CPO consumption increase of about 2 million tons. There may be a consumption increase in biodiesel next year [28]. - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, India increased soybean oil imports and reduced palm oil imports. In the 2025/26 fiscal year, palm oil imports are expected to increase from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons, which is bullish for prices [29][30].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report period: October 27 - 31, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Reported futures varieties: Soybean meal and soybean oil [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The high inventory and high operation rate of oil mills continuously suppress the spot price, and the poor downstream breeding profit leads to cautious procurement by feed enterprises, resulting in weak demand - side support. However, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal becomes apparent after the price drops to a low level, and the expected monthly decline in soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter provides bottom support. [6] - Trend judgment logic: In the 42nd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1662 million tons, the operation rate was 59.59%, and the soybean meal inventory was 976,200 tons. [6] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. [6] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was in a downward channel, and the capital was slightly bearish. In the short term, M2601 may continue the oscillation and consolidation pattern, with an expected operating range of 2,800 - 3,000. [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, and the capital is relatively bullish. In the short term, M2601 may be in a slightly stronger oscillation phase, with an expected operating range of 2,880 - 3,050. [10] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes: Weekly soybean meal production, weekly soybean meal inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, soybean meal basis, and oil - meal ratio. [18][22][25] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The sufficient arrival of domestic soybeans, high operation of oil mills, and high commercial inventory (although it decreased slightly week - on - week) combined with weak demand, but strong exports and potential benefits from US biodiesel policies make soybean oil relatively strong among oils and fats. [30] - Trend judgment logic: In the 42nd week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 41,160 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.224 million tons. [30] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, the progress of US biodiesel, and the promotion rhythm of Indonesia's B50 policy. [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a sideways phase, and the capital was slightly bearish. In the short term, Y2601 may be in a range - bound oscillation pattern. [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a sideways phase, and the capital is relatively bearish. In the short term, Y2601 may continue the range - bound oscillation pattern. [33] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes: Weekly soybean oil production, weekly soybean oil inventory, soybean oil basis, soybean oil trading volume, weekly soybean arrival volume, weekly soybean inventory, weekly soybean crushing volume, weekly soybean operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. [43][47][50][55][58]

Report Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures trended weakly due to concerns about potential export growth slowdown and significant production increase. The price may test the support of the 60 - day moving average at 4400 ringgit. With a bearish fundamental outlook and expected substantial month - end inventory growth, there's a risk of breaking below the 60 - day moving average. However, as production enters the decline season in November and the market speculates on Indonesia's B50 policy, the price may stabilize and recover [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures maintained a weak and volatile trend, dragged down by rising port inventories and the decline of Malaysian palm oil. The price may seek support at the 9000 - yuan mark, with strong support at the annual line of 8900 yuan. After this round of adjustment, it may slowly recover following Malaysian palm oil. The view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones, and attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling in the 8900 - 9000 yuan range [3]. Soybean Oil - The market is currently focused on the results of the China - US negotiations. Domestically, demand is weak, and traders are reluctant to purchase due to concerns about price drops. Although soybean import costs support the market, there are also bearish factors. In the short term, the Dalian soybean oil January contract will fluctuate around 8200 yuan. If CBOT soybeans and soybean oil rise again, it may increase slightly; otherwise, it may fall to 8000 - 8100 yuan [4]. Bean Meal - Spot prices of bean meal increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and near - month basis decreased by 10 - 20 yuan. Some oil mills in North and South China suspended production due to delayed soybean arrivals, and cost inversion boosted the price - holding attitude. However, due to the unclear outcome of China - US trade negotiations, feed enterprises are digesting existing inventories, and traders' enthusiasm for chasing prices is limited [17]. Price Information Oil Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 24 | - 2 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 220 | 8 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 244 | - 6 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 166 | - 4 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 92 | - 6 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 258 | 10 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 389 | 3 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 71 | 13 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 460 | - 16 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 944 | - 18 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1086 | - 16 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 958 | - 2 | | Y/M 01 | / | 2.7869 | - 2.4% | | Y/M 05 | / | 2.896 | - 1.54% | | Y/M 09 | / | 2.7487 | - 1.33% | | OI/RM 01 | / | 4.1714 | - 2.14% | | OI/RM 05 | / | 4.0519 | - 1.4% | | OI/RM 09 | / | 3.8529 | - 1.93% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9122 | - 0.11% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 9104 | - 0.04% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8858 | - 0.34% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | ringgit/ton | 4442 | - 0.65% | | 24 - degree Palm Oil in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 9050 | 50 | | 24 - degree Basis in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | - 132 | - 108 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 461.996 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | - 3.86 | - 5 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8194 | - 0.17% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8016 | - 0.07% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7906 | - 0.17% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | cents/pound | 50.86 | 1.68% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8350 | 0 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 162 | - 20 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 46.382 | - 11.2948 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 500 | 110 | [14] Oilseed Futures Price | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 2933 | - 5 | - 0.17% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2768 | - 2 | - 0.07% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2880 | - 5 | - 0.17% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2325 | - 14 | - 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2300 | - 12 | - 0.52% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2401 | - 12 | - 0.5% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1061.25 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.125 | - 0.0019 | - 0.03% | [18] Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 168 | 26 | RM01 - 05 | 27 | 19 | | M05 - 09 | - 115 | 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 101 | - 10 | | M09 - 01 | - 53 | - 29 | RM09 - 01 | 74 | - 9 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 40 | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | 42 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2450 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 111 | - 32 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 530 | 20 | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 599 | 21 | [19][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The protein meal market is expected to be range - bound. Investors are advised to buy at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at high prices [3][5]. - The outlook for the oil market is oscillating strongly. Palm oil may rise in the fourth quarter due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia [7][9]. - The sugar market is generally bearish. The downward space depends on the Brazilian production speed from August to October [11][12]. - The cotton market may improve fundamentally. In the short - term, cotton prices are likely to oscillate at a high level [14][15]. - The egg market may be prone to rising in the short - term but needs to be cautious about the pressure after demand overdraft and position decline in the medium - term [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weak in September. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound on the futures market and the far - month reverse spread strategy [20][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Protein Meal - **Important Information**: On Thursday, US soybeans rose slightly, and the domestic soybean meal futures rebounded slightly. Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybeans were stocked up, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas will be significantly less in the next two weeks, and the soybean good - quality rate has declined. The USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production has decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal spot market may start to destock in September, supporting the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious at high prices [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in August, while production decreased. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons. The international palm oil CNF quotation has declined slightly, and China's palm oil import cost has dropped. The domestic three major oils oscillated on Thursday, and foreign investors continued to reduce their long positions [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils fell due to the weakening of commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy draft, low inventory in Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the oil price center. Palm oil is expected to be oscillating strongly before the inventory is fully accumulated and the negative feedback from demand does not appear [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. As of the end of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi increased year - on - year, while that in Yunnan decreased year - on - year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar supply has increased significantly since July. The new sugar - making season in Guangxi is expected to have increased production. The overall view is bearish, and the downward space depends on the Brazilian production [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The global cotton production and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season are expected to decrease compared with the previous month's forecast. As of August 31, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 51%, down 3 percentage points from the previous week [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the downstream consumption is average, considering the upcoming consumption peak season and the low domestic cotton inventory, the fundamentals may improve. In the short - term, cotton prices are likely to oscillate at a high level [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply was relatively stable, and the market sales were normal [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply has improved marginally, and the demand has increased due to pre - festival stocking. In the short - term, egg prices are likely to rise, but attention should be paid to the medium - term pressure [18]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price generally fell on the previous day, with some local increases. The demand support was limited, and the sales resistance for farmers was large [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The previous expectation of a spot price rebound has failed. The current futures price has low expectations for the future. In September, the supply may be weak, but attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound and the far - month reverse spread strategy [21].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Five Mines Futures Agricultural Products Morning Report on August 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soybean/M粕 Core View - The cost of imported soybeans is on a stable and slightly rising trend, while the domestic soybean meal market is in a season of oversupply. It is expected that the spot market may start to destock in September. The soybean meal market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors [3][5] Key Information - On Wednesday night, the U.S. soybeans closed slightly higher in a narrow - range oscillation. The market is still focused on the PROFARMER tour survey. The U.S. Soybean Association called on Trump to reach an agreement with China as soon as possible. The Brazilian soybean premium is stable, and the cost of imported soybeans remains unchanged for the time being. The domestic soybean meal spot basis is stable, with the East China region reporting 01 - 170 yuan/ton. The soybean meal trading is weak, but the pick - up is good. The downstream inventory days decreased slightly by 0.02 days to 8.35 days. According to MYSTEEL statistics, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and it is expected to crush 2.4043 million tons this week [3] - In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is expected to be low. In Brazil, the premium has been oscillating at a high level recently. Overall, the USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the U.S. soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, which is a short - term positive for CBOT soybeans. Currently, due to the low valuation of U.S. soybeans, the positive EPA policy, and the fact that soybeans are solely supplied by Brazil from September to January, the cost of imported soybeans maintains a stable and slightly rising trend. However, the continuous upward momentum of the cost of imported soybeans needs to be tested under the background of global protein raw material oversupply [3] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range. At the high end, pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure. Focus on the progress of Sino - U.S. tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5] Group 3: Oils Core View - The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with a rising expectation in the fourth quarter. However, the upward space is limited by multiple factors [7][9] Key Information - According to the Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the 366,482 tons exported in the same period last month. It is expected that the exports in the first 15 days will increase by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month, and the first 20 days will increase by 13.61% - 17.5%. SPPOMA data shows that from August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [7] - The Malaysian Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities (KPK) stated that the direct impact of U.S. market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be relatively limited, as it is difficult to find substitutes in the global market [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said that due to the slowdown in supply and the decrease in soybean supply caused by biodiesel demand, the palm oil price is expected to remain above 4,300 ringgit per ton in the short - term [7] - On Wednesday night, the three major domestic oils oscillated, affected by the weak sentiment of the overall commodity market. The stable demand from importing countries, low inventories in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia provide continuous positive factors. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] Trading Strategy - The oil price is expected to oscillate strongly. If the importing countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong price. There is a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the high valuation and multiple suppressing factors limit the upward space [9] Group 4: Sugar Core View - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,676 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan or 0.26% increase from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,940 - 6,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,050 - 6,130 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 264 yuan/ton [11] - According to the latest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center, the average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region of Brazil in July was 81.3 tons, a 5.6% year - on - year decrease compared to 86.1 tons per hectare in the same period in 2024 [11] Trading Strategy - The international raw sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increased domestic imports and high import profits [12] Group 5: Cotton Core View - The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price slightly decreased. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 14,055 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan or 0.32% decrease from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price was 15,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 945 yuan/ton [14] - India has suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30, which may benefit U.S. cotton growers [14] Trading Strategy - The USDA report is more positive than expected, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the U.S. for 90 days are positive for the domestic cotton price. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Group 6: Eggs Core View - The egg price in the spot market is mostly stable with a few declines, and the futures market may fluctuate in the short - term, with short - selling opportunities after a rebound in the medium - term [17][18] Key Information - The national egg price is mostly stable with a few declines. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.1 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the willingness of second - and third - tier dealers to stock up and build inventories is low. The overall circulation speed is slow. It is expected that the egg price will mostly decline and a few will remain stable today [17] Trading Strategy - The supply of newly - laid hens continues to increase, and the number of culled chickens is limited, resulting in a large supply. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures market has a premium. The short - term futures market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [18] Group 7: Pigs Core View - The pig price may oscillate in a range, with short - term low - buying opportunities and attention to the upper - limit pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21] Key Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally increased. The average price in Henan increased 0.03 yuan to 13.8 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan increased 0.1 yuan to 13.57 yuan/kg. After the price increase, the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced goods decreased, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and some farmers plan to increase the number of pigs for sale. It is expected that the pig price will be stable with some declines and a few slight increases today [20] Trading Strategy - The spot price has temporarily stabilized due to previous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment. The futures market has risen and then fallen. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. In the context of expected increases in both supply and demand, the fat - to - standard pig price difference and whether there will be pig hoarding are crucial. The market may oscillate in a range. In the short - term, focus on low - buying opportunities; in the medium - term, pay attention to the upper - limit pressure; and use a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have stabilized after a decline, with Indonesia's B50 policy potentially introducing an additional demand of 3 million tons, raising speculation about a "golden era" for palm oil [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Palm oil futures have stopped falling and are showing signs of stabilization [1] - The anticipated B50 policy in Indonesia could lead to a significant increase in demand for palm oil [1] Group 2: Demand Projections - The introduction of the B50 policy is expected to create an additional demand of 3 million tons for palm oil [1] - This increase in demand may signal the beginning of a favorable period for the palm oil industry [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish rating on high - frequency exports of the oil and fat industry, indicating "short - term bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, factors such as the unexpected U.S. biodiesel policy draft, limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, low inventories of vegetable oils in India for rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of oils and fats. From July to September, if demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong and volatile price quotation. There may be an upward price expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level expectation of increased oil and fat production, relatively high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and demand adjustments in major importing countries. The market is expected to be volatile [11][12][13] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Palm oil rose slightly at the beginning of the week following the optimistic sentiment in commodities, but it was difficult to continue the upward trend due to the record - high net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils and fats and the bearish high - frequency export and production data. It fell at the end of the week following the overall decline in commodities. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days were expected to decline by 9.2% - 15.22% month - on - month, and the production in the first 20 days of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. The lower - than - expected exports may imply increased production in Indonesia or weak demand in consuming areas. The narrative of increased palm oil production and weak demand still suppresses the market. Although there are medium - term positive factors such as the expected B50 policy in Indonesia and limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, short - term data deviations bring correction pressure to the market. The price of foreign - traded rapeseed entered a volatile phase after falling from a high level, and the contact between China and Australia on rapeseed purchases suppressed the high valuation of rapeseed oil [11] - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA July monthly report estimated that the U.S. will increase about 1.5 million tons of industrial demand for soybean oil in the 2025/2026 season, which will be supplemented by a decline in soybean oil exports and increased压榨 output. The estimated import of rapeseed oil is only expected to increase by 200,000 tons year - on - year. The shipment volume of Canadian rapeseed is still high, and exports are at a seasonally high level, with signs of inventory accumulation in commercial inventories. The contact between China and Australia on rapeseed trade also suppresses the rapeseed price. The foreign - traded rapeseed price has been mainly volatile this week. The AAFC significantly increased the production of old - crop rapeseed based on large export data, but the new - crop rapeseed is facing a production decline, which supports the rapeseed price. India purchased a large amount of vegetable oils in June, possibly starting a replenishment process, which will support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11] - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: The trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak this week, and the spot basis was at a low level. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient supply. Among them, the rapeseed oil inventory is 300,000 tons higher than last year, the palm oil inventory is about 100,000 tons higher than last year, and the soybean oil inventory is the same as last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will increase with the arrival of soybeans, and the export willingness of palm oil will also increase after production rises. The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, but the high price difference and weak consumption lead to slow inventory reduction. It is difficult to see a downward trend in the total domestic inventory of oils and fats for now [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to be volatile. The core driving logic is the same as the core viewpoints mentioned above. There is no specific recommendation for arbitrage trading [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including the FOB - futures price difference of Malaysian palm oil, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil futures, and the basis of 09 contracts of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23][25] 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the monthly production and export of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia. It also includes charts of the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly import of rapeseed, and monthly import of rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the supply situation of different oils and fats [28][29][30][31] - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: The report presents charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which are used to analyze the impact of weather on palm oil production [33][35] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Situation**: The report shows charts of the total inventory of domestic three major oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, which are used to analyze the profit and inventory situation of different oils and fats [41][44][46][47][49] 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, which are used to analyze the cost of Malaysian palm oil [51][52] - **Cost of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed**: The report shows charts of the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China, which are used to analyze the cost of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [55] 3.6 Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: The report shows charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, which are used to analyze the trading demand for different oils and fats [58] - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report shows charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which are used to analyze the profit situation of biodiesel [60]