欧元仍处于弱势，兑美元汇率一度跌破1.1800。 强于预期的美国初请失业金人数和制造业活动数据支撑了美元的复苏。 在欧洲，由于缺乏关键的基本面驱动因素，法国的政治动荡可能会对欧元构成压力。 总体而言，美元（USD）保持温和上涨基调，市场情绪中性，且缺乏欧洲和美国关键基本面数据。然而，由于投资者预期未来几个月美联储（Fed）将进一 步放松货币政策，美元的上行空间可能依然有限。 | | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | USD | | 0.13% | 0.24% | -0.25% | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.46% | 0.26% | | EUR | -0.13% | | 0.13% | -0.43% | -0.03% | 0.15% | 0.34% | 0.13% | | GBP | -0.24% | -0.13% | | -0.50% | -0.16% | 0.02% | 0.12% | -0.00% | | JPY | ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to decline further due to policy uncertainty in the US and questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, despite a potential short-term rebound [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of 06:15 ET, the euro/dollar pair fell by 0.3% to $1.1355, with a cumulative decline of approximately 0.3% for the week, although it has risen over 5.5% this month and nearly 10% year-to-date [3]. - UBS analysts noted that uncertainty surrounding US policies, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve and tariffs, has weakened the dollar and increased risk-averse sentiment among investors, supporting the rise of the euro/dollar pair [3][4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor unease has been exacerbated by President Trump's public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and legal inquiries into his potential removal, contributing to the dollar's decline [3]. - The discussion surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve has added a layer of uncertainty, combined with ongoing trade tensions, increasing tail risks for investors and further pressuring the dollar [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - UBS anticipates that as trade agreements are reached, tariffs will gradually decrease, but ongoing uncertainty may impact US corporate investment and economic growth [4]. - The firm expects the euro/dollar pair to remain supported, predicting limited chances for it to fall to or below 1.10, and projecting a consolidation phase between $1.12 and $1.16 before gradually rising to a target of $1.18 by March 2026 [5][6][7]. - UBS has revised its euro/dollar forecasts upward to $1.14 in June, $1.16 in September, and $1.16 in December, with a long-term target of $1.18 by March 2026, compared to previous forecasts of $1.10, $1.12, $1.12, and $1.14 respectively [7].