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国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250615
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 09:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report As of June 13, the main contract LG2507 closed at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.1% from last week. The market was in a low - level oscillation, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread widened slightly this week [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of June 15, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in June, all going to the Chinese mainland. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in June and 0 in July, with an expected arrival volume of 310,000 cubic meters in June [5][8][9]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 30, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port was 10,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 100 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 125,180 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 535,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 34,100 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 373,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 19,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 246,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 41,900 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.4077 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 58,300 cubic meters from the previous week [6][14]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of June 13, the main contract LG2507 closed at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.1% from last week. The market was in a low - level oscillation, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads were as follows: the 07 - 09 spread was - 17 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread was - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread was - 3.5 yuan/cubic meter [17]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market quoted 775 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 810 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were still in short supply [4]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [21][24][31] - **Species and Specification Spread**: It shows the price differences between different species and specifications, like the difference between 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc. [45][46][50] 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of June 15, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1968 points, up 335 points (20.5%) from last week. The related Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 604 points, up 0.7% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 6.8% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index hit a new low this week. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.1% from last week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.1% from last week [58][59].