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原木周度报告:国泰君安期货·黑色与建材-20251123
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-23 09:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat compared to last week, and European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply [4]. - As of November 16, 17 ships departed from New Zealand in November, with 16 bound for mainland China, and it is expected that 1.41 million cubic meters will arrive in November [5][8]. - As of the week of November 14, the daily average shipment volume of major ports decreased, and the total inventory of four major ports increased by 29,200 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][13]. - As of the week of November 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 7.1% week - on - week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The US dollar strengthened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate rising by 0.15% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rising by 1.6% [6][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - As of November 16, 17 ships departed from New Zealand in November, 16 of which were headed for mainland China, and 12 ships were expected to arrive in November and 5 in December. The expected arrival volume in November is 1.41 million cubic meters [5][8]. Demand and Inventory - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 20,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1,700 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 10,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 300 cubic meters) [6][13]. - Inventory: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2928 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 27,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 371,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 24,800 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 264,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 9,900 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 181,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 32,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.11 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 29,200 cubic meters [6][13]. Market Trends - As of November 21, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 768.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 2.3% compared to last week. The monthly spread (absolute value) widened this week [19]. Price and Spread - Spot price: The prices of various specifications of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat compared to last week, with varying degrees of decline compared to four weeks ago [22]. - Regional spread: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions [22][24][29]. - Tree species and specification spread: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications of radiata pine [41][43][45]. Other - Freight and exchange rate: As of the week of November 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 7.1% week - on - week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The US dollar strengthened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate rising by 0.15% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rising by 1.6% [6][55][56].
国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250615
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 09:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report As of June 13, the main contract LG2507 closed at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.1% from last week. The market was in a low - level oscillation, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread widened slightly this week [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of June 15, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in June, all going to the Chinese mainland. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in June and 0 in July, with an expected arrival volume of 310,000 cubic meters in June [5][8][9]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 30, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port was 10,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 100 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 125,180 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 535,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 34,100 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 373,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 19,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 246,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 41,900 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.4077 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 58,300 cubic meters from the previous week [6][14]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of June 13, the main contract LG2507 closed at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.1% from last week. The market was in a low - level oscillation, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads were as follows: the 07 - 09 spread was - 17 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread was - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread was - 3.5 yuan/cubic meter [17]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market quoted 775 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 810 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were still in short supply [4]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [21][24][31] - **Species and Specification Spread**: It shows the price differences between different species and specifications, like the difference between 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc. [45][46][50] 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of June 15, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1968 points, up 335 points (20.5%) from last week. The related Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 604 points, up 0.7% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 6.8% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index hit a new low this week. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.1% from last week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.1% from last week [58][59].