综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 755 元/方，较上周 持平，江苏市场报价 755 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 0。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 855 元/方，较上周 持平；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 780 元/方，较上周 持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉在江苏市场上 的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 截止到11月16日，11月从新西兰出发的船只总共有17条，其中有16条去往中国大陆，1条去往 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot price of mainstream delivery products has changed slightly, the port inventory has decreased overall, the futures market has shown narrow - range fluctuations, and the freight and exchange rate have also changed [4][6][20] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of September 21, there were 27 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 22 bound for the Chinese mainland and 5 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea with load reduction. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in September and 12 in October, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.41 million cubic meters in September [5] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 19, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 20,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 600 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 700 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1408 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,900 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 476,900 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 12,000 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 290,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 30,900 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 146,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 8,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0546 million cubic meters, a decrease of 24,300 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] 3.3 Market Trend - As of September 26, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 808.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.2% increase from the previous week. The futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations this week, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow, with the 11 - 01 monthly spread at - 11.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 11 - 03 monthly spread at - 16.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 01 - 03 monthly spread at - 5 yuan per cubic meter [20] 3.4 Other - As of the week of September 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,266.00 points, an increase of 79 points (+2.9%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 832 points, a 2.1% increase from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,114.52 points, a 7.0% decrease from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated upwards. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.134, a 0.30% week - on - week increase, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 2.5% to 1.720 [6][61]

Core Viewpoint - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has reached a two-month high, indicating a gradual recovery in bulk commodity trade activities [1] Group 1: BDI Performance - The BDI has increased by 4.13%, reaching 1489 points, marking the highest level since April 4 [1] - The rise in BDI is primarily driven by the strong performance of the Capesize vessel rate index, which is crucial for transporting large quantities of iron ore and coal [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Industry experts anticipate that as the Chinese economy continues to recover, the demand for bulk commodity imports is expected to further increase, potentially sustaining the upward trend of the BDI [1]

Global Timber Trade Situation - Over the past decade, global timber trade has experienced significant fluctuations influenced by economic growth and international trade policies. From 1990 to 2007, there was a substantial increase in global timber trade volume, with China's demand for logs rising sharply. However, following the financial crisis, global timber trade volume briefly declined from 271 million cubic meters in 2007 to 199 million cubic meters in 2009. Subsequently, the trade volume grew rapidly, reaching a peak of 306 million cubic meters in 2018, but has been declining since then due to factors such as trade policies, weather, and the COVID-19 pandemic [1][3][4]. China's Timber Trade Situation - China is the largest importer of softwood timber globally, with minimal exports of logs. In terms of import composition, logs account for approximately 50%, alongside sawn timber, wood fiberboard, and pulp. In 2024, China's log import volume is projected to be around 36.1 million cubic meters, with an import value of approximately 59.396 billion yuan. The primary source of softwood logs imported by China is radiata pine from New Zealand, followed by spruce and fir from Europe [4][8][9]. Major Timber Import Sources - China primarily imports logs from Russia, New Zealand, and the United States. However, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia has banned the export of its logs. The import volume from New Zealand remains significant and stable, warranting close attention [8][9]. Major Trade Ports - Shandong province is a key area for log consumption, boasting a comprehensive processing industry and significant price influence. It serves as the main trading and delivery hub for logs in China. Other notable ports include Zhangjiagang in Jiangsu, which is the largest tropical timber import port, and Caofeidian in Hebei, designated by the Canadian government as a designated receiving port for outbound timber. Qingdao port in Shandong has established a rail-sea intermodal transport route for logs, enhancing the logistics network for timber imports [9][10]. Major Transportation Methods - The import of softwood logs into China primarily utilizes waterway and land transportation. Waterway transport is dominated by ocean shipping, with logs arriving from New Zealand, North America, and Southeast Asia. After reaching the port, wholesalers procure the logs and transport them via rail or road to secondary wholesale or retail markets. Land transport relies on rail and road networks, with logs from Russia and other European regions mainly entering through rail, offering stable transport times and lower logistics costs [10][11]. Shipping Costs and Trends - The local pricing of logs in New Zealand typically uses the AWG price, which includes procurement, transport, and packaging costs before reaching the port, excluding shipping costs. When exporting, New Zealand adopts the CFR pricing model, where shipping costs significantly impact the overall price. Recent trends indicate that shipping costs have been rising, with shipping fees accounting for approximately 30% of the log import price over the past two years [22][23]. Shipping Indices - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Baltic Handy Size Index (BHSI) are commonly used reference indicators for tracking global log shipping costs. BDI reflects the overall dry bulk shipping price, while BHSI specifically tracks the rates for handy-sized bulk carriers, which are primarily used for transporting logs. The choice of index is crucial for accurately assessing shipping costs related to log transportation [25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery products has declined, and the European timber market is in short supply. The supply from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.52 million cubic meters in May. The total inventory of four major ports has decreased slightly, and the market is in a weak supply - demand pattern [4][5][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Spot price**: For 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong is 755 yuan/cubic meter (down 15 yuan from last week), and in Jiangsu is 775 yuan/cubic meter (down 5 yuan from last week). The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remains unchanged at 830 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong drops 15 yuan to 765 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are in short supply [4]. - **Supply**: As of May 18, 25 ships departed from New Zealand in May, with 21 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 14 ships will arrive in May and 11 in June, with an expected arrival volume of 1.52 million cubic meters in May [4][7]. - **Demand and inventory**: As of the week of May 16, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port is 2.32 million cubic meters (down 0.04 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port is 1.20 million cubic meters (up 0.17 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.3676 million cubic meters, with a slight decrease of 77,100 cubic meters from the previous week [5][12]. - **Other factors**: As of the week of May 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1340 points (down 48 points or 3.5% from last week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) is 581 points (up 4.9% from last week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1586.12 points (up 7.2% from last week). The US dollar index weakens, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.4% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.3% from last week [5][56]. 2. Supply - As of May 18, 25 ships departed from New Zealand in May, with 21 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 14 ships will arrive in May and 11 in June, with an expected arrival volume of 1.52 million cubic meters in May. Detailed ship - schedule data is provided [7][8]. 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 16, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port is 2.32 million cubic meters (down 0.04 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port is 1.20 million cubic meters (up 0.17 million cubic meters week - on - week). The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1.2468 million cubic meters (up 38,000 cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port is about 499,200 cubic meters (down 52,300 cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou is about 400,000 cubic meters (down 6600 cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port is about 221,600 cubic meters (up 19,800 cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.3676 million cubic meters, with a slight decrease of 77,100 cubic meters from the previous week [5][12]. 4. Market Trends - As of May 23, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 is 775 yuan/cubic meter (down 1.0% from last week). The market continues to fluctuate weakly, and the fundamentals remain in a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads have widened, with the 07 - 09 monthly spread at - 15.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 monthly spread at - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 monthly spread at - 4 yuan/cubic meter [15]. 5. Other - **Price and spreads**: Detailed data on spot price trends, regional price differences of mainstream timber species, and price differences between tree species and specifications are provided [18][20][22]. - **Price - influencing factors**: As of the week of May 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1340 points (down 48 points or 3.5% from last week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) is 581 points (up 4.9% from last week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1586.12 points (up 7.2% from last week). The US dollar index weakens, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.4% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.3% from last week [55][56].