Core Viewpoint - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has reached a two-month high, indicating a gradual recovery in bulk commodity trade activities [1] Group 1: BDI Performance - The BDI has increased by 4.13%, reaching 1489 points, marking the highest level since April 4 [1] - The rise in BDI is primarily driven by the strong performance of the Capesize vessel rate index, which is crucial for transporting large quantities of iron ore and coal [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Industry experts anticipate that as the Chinese economy continues to recover, the demand for bulk commodity imports is expected to further increase, potentially sustaining the upward trend of the BDI [1]

Global Timber Trade Situation - Over the past decade, global timber trade has experienced significant fluctuations influenced by economic growth and international trade policies. From 1990 to 2007, there was a substantial increase in global timber trade volume, with China's demand for logs rising sharply. However, following the financial crisis, global timber trade volume briefly declined from 271 million cubic meters in 2007 to 199 million cubic meters in 2009. Subsequently, the trade volume grew rapidly, reaching a peak of 306 million cubic meters in 2018, but has been declining since then due to factors such as trade policies, weather, and the COVID-19 pandemic [1][3][4]. China's Timber Trade Situation - China is the largest importer of softwood timber globally, with minimal exports of logs. In terms of import composition, logs account for approximately 50%, alongside sawn timber, wood fiberboard, and pulp. In 2024, China's log import volume is projected to be around 36.1 million cubic meters, with an import value of approximately 59.396 billion yuan. The primary source of softwood logs imported by China is radiata pine from New Zealand, followed by spruce and fir from Europe [4][8][9]. Major Timber Import Sources - China primarily imports logs from Russia, New Zealand, and the United States. However, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia has banned the export of its logs. The import volume from New Zealand remains significant and stable, warranting close attention [8][9]. Major Trade Ports - Shandong province is a key area for log consumption, boasting a comprehensive processing industry and significant price influence. It serves as the main trading and delivery hub for logs in China. Other notable ports include Zhangjiagang in Jiangsu, which is the largest tropical timber import port, and Caofeidian in Hebei, designated by the Canadian government as a designated receiving port for outbound timber. Qingdao port in Shandong has established a rail-sea intermodal transport route for logs, enhancing the logistics network for timber imports [9][10]. Major Transportation Methods - The import of softwood logs into China primarily utilizes waterway and land transportation. Waterway transport is dominated by ocean shipping, with logs arriving from New Zealand, North America, and Southeast Asia. After reaching the port, wholesalers procure the logs and transport them via rail or road to secondary wholesale or retail markets. Land transport relies on rail and road networks, with logs from Russia and other European regions mainly entering through rail, offering stable transport times and lower logistics costs [10][11]. Shipping Costs and Trends - The local pricing of logs in New Zealand typically uses the AWG price, which includes procurement, transport, and packaging costs before reaching the port, excluding shipping costs. When exporting, New Zealand adopts the CFR pricing model, where shipping costs significantly impact the overall price. Recent trends indicate that shipping costs have been rising, with shipping fees accounting for approximately 30% of the log import price over the past two years [22][23]. Shipping Indices - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Baltic Handy Size Index (BHSI) are commonly used reference indicators for tracking global log shipping costs. BDI reflects the overall dry bulk shipping price, while BHSI specifically tracks the rates for handy-sized bulk carriers, which are primarily used for transporting logs. The choice of index is crucial for accurately assessing shipping costs related to log transportation [25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery products has declined, and the European timber market is in short supply. The supply from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.52 million cubic meters in May. The total inventory of four major ports has decreased slightly, and the market is in a weak supply - demand pattern [4][5][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Spot price**: For 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong is 755 yuan/cubic meter (down 15 yuan from last week), and in Jiangsu is 775 yuan/cubic meter (down 5 yuan from last week). The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remains unchanged at 830 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong drops 15 yuan to 765 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are in short supply [4]. - **Supply**: As of May 18, 25 ships departed from New Zealand in May, with 21 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 14 ships will arrive in May and 11 in June, with an expected arrival volume of 1.52 million cubic meters in May [4][7]. - **Demand and inventory**: As of the week of May 16, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port is 2.32 million cubic meters (down 0.04 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port is 1.20 million cubic meters (up 0.17 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.3676 million cubic meters, with a slight decrease of 77,100 cubic meters from the previous week [5][12]. - **Other factors**: As of the week of May 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1340 points (down 48 points or 3.5% from last week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) is 581 points (up 4.9% from last week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1586.12 points (up 7.2% from last week). The US dollar index weakens, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.4% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.3% from last week [5][56]. 2. Supply - As of May 18, 25 ships departed from New Zealand in May, with 21 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 14 ships will arrive in May and 11 in June, with an expected arrival volume of 1.52 million cubic meters in May. Detailed ship - schedule data is provided [7][8]. 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 16, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port is 2.32 million cubic meters (down 0.04 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port is 1.20 million cubic meters (up 0.17 million cubic meters week - on - week). The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1.2468 million cubic meters (up 38,000 cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port is about 499,200 cubic meters (down 52,300 cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou is about 400,000 cubic meters (down 6600 cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port is about 221,600 cubic meters (up 19,800 cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.3676 million cubic meters, with a slight decrease of 77,100 cubic meters from the previous week [5][12]. 4. Market Trends - As of May 23, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 is 775 yuan/cubic meter (down 1.0% from last week). The market continues to fluctuate weakly, and the fundamentals remain in a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads have widened, with the 07 - 09 monthly spread at - 15.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 monthly spread at - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 monthly spread at - 4 yuan/cubic meter [15]. 5. Other - **Price and spreads**: Detailed data on spot price trends, regional price differences of mainstream timber species, and price differences between tree species and specifications are provided [18][20][22]. - **Price - influencing factors**: As of the week of May 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1340 points (down 48 points or 3.5% from last week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) is 581 points (up 4.9% from last week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1586.12 points (up 7.2% from last week). The US dollar index weakens, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.4% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.3% from last week [55][56].